Currently No Tropical Cyclones

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
10:00 PM CST December 27 2011
===================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1000 hPa) located at 14.0S 134.3E or 95 km south of Jabiru and 445 km west southwest of Nhulunbuy has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Ex-tropical Cyclone Grant is slowly moving towards the east and is likely to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria later on Wednesday night and it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday. The system is expected to move steadily east across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday and Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later if the cyclone forms close to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 27 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered near 12.5N 86.5E, about 650 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 670 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal from 7.5N to 15.0N and 82.0E to 90.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean heat thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of the system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model prediction, it is expected to le in phase 5 during next 5 days. the phase 5 is favorable for intensification, as per our past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0 N and hence helps in west northwest movement of the system. The low level convergence as well as upper divergence does not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate. There is no significant change in wind shear during past 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 12.7N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.9N 85.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.N 83.2E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.2N 80.6E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
20:30 PM IST December 27 2011
===================================

Cyclonic Storm "Thane" Over Southeast And Adjoining Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 86.5E, about 650 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 670 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore around Friday morning.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.7N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.9N 85.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.3N 83.2E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.2N 80.6E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET December 27 2011
=================================

East of 80E, the westerlies feed two tropical systems located both north and south of the equator: A "tropical storm THANE" (according to the 06Z advisory from RSMC New Delhi) located in the southern Gulf of Bengal and a 1003 hPa low, very approximately located near 11S 94E at 0900Z close to the northern boundary of the Australian area of responsibility.

Currently, the near equatorial westerlies mainly feeds the northern hemisphere disturbance. But up
to Thursday, this pattern should gradually turn towards a feeding of the southern hemisphere low
(according to all available guidance). Consequently, a slow development of this system appears likely as it should move on a generally west southwestwards track on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge. However, some easterly shear should maintain, beginning to weaken up to Thursday. This low is expected to enter within our area of responsibility at the end of Wednesday or during the Wednesday to Thursday night.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor, with the arrival of the tropical perturbation in the process of formation in the Australian area . The potential becomes poor to fair Thursday over the eastern part of the basin, and fair to good on Friday.

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #36
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
5:00 AM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1001 hPa) located at 14.0S 134.7E or 115 km west northwest of Numbulwar and 305 km southwest of Nhulunbuy has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Ex-tropical Cyclone Grant is slowly moving towards the east and is expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria later on Wednesday night. The system is expected to move steadily east across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday and Friday and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later if the cyclone forms close to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem and eastern Roper-McArthur Districts.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..

[India Meteorological Department has not issued or released any new advisory for 1800 PM UTC]

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #37
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 AM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1001 hPa) located at 14.1S 135.1E, or 140 km west of Alyangula and 280 km southwest of Nhulunbuy. The low is reported as moving east at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is moving towards the east and is expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria later today or overnight. The system is then expected to move steadily east, across the Gulf of Carpentaria and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or on Friday.

GALES are no longer expected in the Northern Territory in coastal areas between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem and eastern Roper-McArthur Districts of the Northern Territory today and Thursday. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.

The Cyclone WATCH from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory has been cancelled

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.1S 137.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.0S 140.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.8S 143.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Position is based primarily on surface observations.

The low is in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the LLCC, which is still over land. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapor imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer dominates the system and a monsoonal low structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message

At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 86.0E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 700 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore around Friday morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 8.0N to 16.0N and between 81.0E to 88.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system's center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.7N 85.5E - 45-50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.9N 85.0E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.3N 83.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.2N 79.5E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from India Meteorological Department will be issued at 3:00 AM UTC..

tropical disturbance just east of 90E about to enter southwestern Indian Ocean

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 86.0E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 700 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards slowly, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore around Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 8.0N to 15.0N and 81.0E to 88.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to remain in phase 5 during the next five days. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification as per out past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence helps in west northwestward movement of the low level convergence as well as upper divergence does not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA level is low. There is a slight decrease in wind shear during past 24 hours.

Considering the numerical weather prediction model guidance, most of the models suggest the intensification of the system. However, they suggest slight weakening before landfall. With respect to track, most of the models suggest west northwestward then westward movement, synoptic conditions also in agreement.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lays centered near 12.5N 85.5E, or about 550 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 750 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning.

However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and 81.0E to 88.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 987 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 85.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.7N 84.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 81.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.9E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:00 PM WST December 28 2011
=========================

At midday WST a tropical low was located near 11S 091E and is moving slowly westward. The low is expected to move west of 090E, outside of the Western Region later on Wednesday. It is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone while in the Western Region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #38
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
5:00 PM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1000 hPa) located at 14.1S 135.9E, or 60 km west southwest of Alyangula and 235 km south southwest of Nhulunbuy. The low is reported as moving east at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is near the coast and expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria tonight. The system is then expected to move steadily east, across the Gulf of Carpentaria and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem and eastern Roper-McArthur Districts of the Northern Territory, including Groote Eylandt tonight and Thursday. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0S 138.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 13.9S 141.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.7S 144.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Position primarily based on surface observations.

The low remains in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Deep convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the LLCC, which is near the coast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapor imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer dominates the system and a monsoonal low structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20112012
10:00 AM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04 (1000 hPa) located at 12.2S 89.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 87.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.5S 85.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.0S 80.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.1S 76.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection persists and moved closer from the center since yesterday (1300z). System is undergoing a moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Low level circulation center has accelerated westward within the last few hours.

Lower level environmental conditions are favorable. Upper level conditions should improve within the next 48 hours. Upper level wind shear should weaken progressively. Beyond 48 hours, and upper level outflow channel should set up poleward. Intensification should remain moderate within the next 48 hours and accelerate beyond 48 hours. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwestward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure of low and mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 04 will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lays centered at 12.5N 85.0E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -79C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and 81.0E to 87.5E. Convection shows increase in organization which may lesd to central dense overcast pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near is 45 knots with a central pressure of 986 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 84.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.7N 83.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 81.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
14:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclonic Storm THANE Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 9:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered near 12.5N 85.0E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Sriharikota, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning.

However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.5N and between 81.0E to 87.0E. Convection shows central dense overcast pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 984 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 84.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 83.6E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.5N 80.4E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.1E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20112012
16:00 PM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 04 (1000 hPa) located at 12.2S 88.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.0S 86.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.4S 84.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.3S 79.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.6S 76.5E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The cloud pattern of the disturbance has little changed within the last 6 hours. The low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. The low level circulation center has been relocated at 0600 UTC (corrective position at 0600 UTC: near 12.3S 89.9E). The low level circulation center has slowed down. The low level flow pattern seems to be rather ill-defined (CF. TRMM 37ghz at 9:31 UTC). The lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. Energetic potential is good. System is still undergoing a moderate upper level shear. The upper levels constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, the upper outflow channel should set up poleward. A second outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 36 hours, but should heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper level environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengthening of the upper level wind shear). Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwest track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressures of low ad mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 04 will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 PM CST December 28 2011
===================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1000 hPa) located at 14.2S 136.5E, or 35 km south southeast of Alyangula and 225 km south of Nhulunbuy. The low is reported as moving east at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to move steadily east, and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Thursday or Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern Arnhem tonight, including Groote Eylandt. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0S 138.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 13.9S 141.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.7S 144.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Position primarily based on surface observations.

The low remains in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Deep convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the LLCC, which is near the coast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapor imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer dominates the system and a monsoonal low structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 12:00 PM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered at 12.5N 84.5E, about 450 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 550 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 900 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-westwards, intensify further during next 12 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The system shows regular central dense overcast pattern. The lowest cloud top temperature is -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and between 80.5E to 87.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 83.8E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 83.1E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.5N 77.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

© India Meteorological Department

ndia Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
20:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and lays centered near 12.5N 84.0E, about 400 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 520 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 950 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Islands).

The system is likely to move westwards, intensify further during next 12 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The system shows regular central dense overcast pattern. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and 80.5E to 86.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
22:00 PM RET December 28 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.0S 87.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.5/18 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

90 NM radius from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 85.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 12.5S 83.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.4S 79.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.9S 76.0E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The cloud pattern of the disturbance has little changed, the low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. The low level flow pattern seems to be rather ill-defined. (CF SSMIS 37ghz at 14:00 PM UTC). Lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. However, system is still undergoing a moderate upper level east vertical wind shear.

The upper level constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, an upper outflow channel should set up poleward. A second upper outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 36 hours, but should heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper level environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengthening of the upper level wind shear).

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west to southwestward track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressure and low and mid-troposphere.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #40
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
5:00 AM CST December 29 2011
===================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (998 hPa) located at 14.4S 138.0E, or 180 km east southeast of Alyangula and 285 km north northwest of Mornington Island. The low is reported as moving east at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to continue moving steadily east, and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.3S 139.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.1S 140.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.1S 143.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 14.2S 147.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=====================

Position poor primarily based on surface observations. System lies in a moderately sheared environment of 15-30 kt. LLCC exposed with deep convection displaced to the southeast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Carpentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is expected to be slow with only a slight chance of redevelopment into a cyclone prior to crossing the coast of Cape York Peninsula.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering in an increasing monsoon flow to the north.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
23:30 PM IST December 28 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 84.0E, about 400 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 520 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 950 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Islands).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The system shows regular central dense overcast pattern. The lowest cloud top temperature is -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and between 81.0E to 86.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The stste of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 12.5N 83.2E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 82.4E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
30 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
54 HRS: 12.5N 77.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
9:00 AM FST December 29 2011
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1002 hPa) located at 17.1S 168.9W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and visible imagery with animation and latest ASCAT pass. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 850 HPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.5N 83.5E, about 350 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 500 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.5N to 15.0N and 81.0E to 85.7E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with a central pressure of 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
4:00 AM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.2S 86.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

90 NM radius from the center extending up to 180 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 12.2S 84.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 12.3S 82.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 13.4S 78.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.6S 75.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The low level circulation is still on the eastern border of the cloud mass of deep convection. Lower levels supply is currently good on the two faces of the system. However, system is still undergoing a moderate upper level east vertical wind shear. The upper levels constraint should progressively weaken within the next 36-48 hours. At 48 hours, an upper outflow channel should set up poleward, a second outflow should temporarily set up equatorward on Saturday and Sunday. Intensification should also remain moderate within the next 48 hours but shold heighten beyond. At the end of the forecast range (beginning of next week) upper levels environmental conditions should become less favorable (strengtening of the upper level wind shear).

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a west track over the northern periphery of the subtropical high pressures of low and mid-troposphere, then more southwest track under the combined effect of the weakening of the subtropical high pressures of low troposphere at the arrival of a trough in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #41
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
11:00 AM EST December 29 2011
===================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1001 hPa) located at 14.4S 139.2E, or 250 km west southwest of Cape Keerweer and 350 km southwest of Weipa has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue moving east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula as a monsoon low.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is now current for Heavy Rainfall, Damaging Wind Gusts and Abnormally High Tides for areas north of Karumba to Cardwell.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

The Cyclone WATCH from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.3S 140.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.4S 142.4E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.6S 146.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.0S 150.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=====================

Dvorak analysis was not possible, though a FT of 1.0 was applied based on nearby surface observations.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is situated in a moderately sheared environment with CIMMS indicating approximately 15-25 knots of shear across the system. The low level centre is now visible on satellite imagery and most of the convection now appears to be well removed from the centre.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue to move east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula under the influence of an upper trough moving across eastern Australia. Redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is now deemed a low chance due to a combination of shear created by the upper trough and dry air affecting the system from the south.

There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it re-intensifies.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lays centered near 12.3N 83.0E, about 300 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 480 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around Friday morning. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -86C. Associated intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 13.5N and west of 84.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The central pressure of the system is at 980 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

The system is being tracked by DWR Chennai since 1000 UTC, yesterday. Hence determinaton of location and intensity is of high confidential.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2 around the system center and near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction models predictions, it is expected to remain in phase 5 during next four days. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification.

The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence helps in westward movement of the system. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is increased during last 6 hours and presently between 10-15 knots around the system center today.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0S 82.3E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 81.5E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 78.6E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.0N 75.8E - 25 knots (Depression)

uh-oh.. the Dvorak number went up to 4.5 on the iMD satellite imagery. =/



© India Meteorological Department

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lays centered near 12.0N 82.5E, about 270 km east of Puducherry, 250 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 420 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -84C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and west of 84.5E. The imagery shows irregular eye pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

3 HRS: 12.0N 82.0E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 12.0N 81.3E - 65-70 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 12.0N 78.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
57 HRS: 12.0N 75.7E - 25 knots (Depression)

At 4 pm EST, Low, Former Grant was located over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria or 140 km west southwest of Cape Keer-Weer and about 270 km north northeast of Mornington Island.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is expected to continue moving east and cross the west coast of Cape York Peninsula as a monsoon low near Cape Keer-Weer in the early hours of Friday.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
10:00 AM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.8S 85.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 220 Nm in the western semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 13.0S 82.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.3S 80.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 14.7S 78.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.8S 75.8E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

System keeps on undergoing an easterly vertical wind shear constraint on the northwestern edge of the upper level ridge. The low level circulation is partially exposed east of the main deep convective activity.

Low level inflow is good poleward ET is currently improving equatorward. Equatorial westerlies are no long mainly feeding the northern hemisphere system in the Bay of Bengal (THANE) and is becoming more direct towards Tropical Depression Number 4. It is expected to keep on improving within the next days on this equator side.

Vertical wind shear is expected to progressively relax and environmental conditions are expected to consequently become more favorable for further intensification on and after Saturday as two upper level outflow channels build aloft on the both side in the same time.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a westward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures within low levels and mid-levels, then more southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low-level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transiting polar through), and of the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
18:00 PM FST December 29 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1002 hPa) located at 20.0S 155.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPa. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 6:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 82.0E, about 220 km east of Puducherry, 200 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 400 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early morning of 30th December 2011.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -83C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.5N and west of 84.5E. The imagery shows irregular eye pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Chennai and Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0N 81.3E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 80.6E - 65-70 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 77.8E - 30-35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.0N 75.0E - Low Pressure Area

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
14:30 PM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 9:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal slightly moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 81.7E, about 180 km east of Puducherry, 180 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 400 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early Friday morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -83C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N and west of 84.0E. The imagery shows irregular eye pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20112012
16:00 PM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04 (999 hPa) located at 12.9S 84.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center and 60 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle and should very locally extend to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 13.3S 82.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 13.8S 80.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 15.4S 77.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.3S 76.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Since few hours, convective activity has been consolidating near the low level center but remains currently fluctuating. Recent satellite imagery (METEOSAT7 and SSMI F15, 1103 UTC) don't show continuous band wrapping more than .30 around the center. Easterly wind shear begins to relax. Equatorial westerlies are no longer mainly feeding the northern hemisphere system in the Bay of Bengal (THANE) and is becoming more direct towards Tropical Depression Number 4. It is expected to keep on improving within the next days on this equator side. Low level inflow is good poleward. System is expected to keep on intensifying slowly on Friday then more clearly on and after Saturday as it tracks under the upper level ridge and as two upper level outflow channels build aloft on the both sides in the same time. It is expected to reach maximum of intensity on Monday before undergoing back an upper level constraint (west northwesterly wind shear) over less heat oceanic content.

Available numerical weather prediction models keep on being in good agreement for a west southwestward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure within low level and mid-levels, then more southwestwards track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low-level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transition polar trough), and of the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 04 will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 81.3E, about 160 km east of Puducherry, 160 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 380 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early tomorrow morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -83C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.5N and west of 84.0E. The eye temperature is -63C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0N 80.6E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 79.9E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 77.0E - 25 knots (Depression)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
20:30 PM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays centered near 12.0N 81.0E, about 130 km east of Puducherry, 150 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 375 km north of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early tomorrow morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 13.5N and west of 83.0E. The eye temperature is -50C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET December 29 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Benilde (996 hPa) located at 13.7S 82.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center and 90 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle and should very locally extend to 200 NM in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.3S 80.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 15.2S 78.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 16.8S 76.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.8S 75.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Last infrared animated pictures show a good consolidation of the deep convection near the low level center. System has been named "Benilde" at 18:00 PM UTC by Mauritius Meteorological Services.

Easterly wind shear is relaxing (confirmed by CIMSS analysis at 15:00 UTC). Low level inflow is good poleward on the two sides. System is expected to keep on intensifying slowly on Friday then more clearly on and after Saturday as it will track under the upper level ridge and as two upper level outflow channels will build aloft on the both sides in the same time. It is expected to reach its maximum of intensity on Monday before undergoing an upper level constraint (west northwesterly wind shear) and over less heat oceanic content. Available numerical weather prediction models keep on being in good agreement fore a west southwestward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures within low levels and mid-levels, then more southwestward to south southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low-level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and of the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
23:30 PM IST December 29 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays at centered near 12.0N 80.6E, about 90 km east of Puducherry, 125 km south-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 380 km northwest of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast close to Puducherry around early this morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 14.0N and west of 81.5E. The eye temperature is -50C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

POST LANDFALL OUTLOOK
======================

Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain its intensity for 12 hours and weaken gradually. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall is likely to continue over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during next 24 hours after landfall causing inundation of low lying areas. Gale/squally wind speed reaching 45-50 knots gusting to 55 knots causing damage to thatched roofs and huts breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during 12 hours after the landfall. People are advised to remain indoor/safe place and cooperate with state Govt. officials and disaster management agencies.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

6 HRS: 12.0N 79.9E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 79.2E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 77.0E - Low Pressure Area

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
9:00 AM FST December 30 2011
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depresssion 02F (1002 hPa) located at 20.5S 163.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on visible and multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is 29C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 hPA. The system lies under an upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 AM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Benilde (991 hPa) located at 13.7S 81.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.5S 79.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 78.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.1S 76.0E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.1S 74.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection has structured over the low level circulation center within the last 6 hours. Low level inflow is good poleward on both sides. Upper level divergence is improving, specially poleward.

Though after 48 hours, system is forecast to intensify regularly as it will approach the axis of the upper level ridge near 17.0S, and as a good upper level outflow channel is forecast to build aloft poleward. The maximum of intensity should occur on Sunday, January 1st, when the system is forecast to be in phase with the upper level ridge. Beyond 96 hours, system is forecast to reach seas with marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models forecast a southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low level subtropical high pressures (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
2:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 21:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lays at centered near 11.8N 80.3E, about 50 km east of Puducherry and 125 km south of Chennai (Tamil Nadu).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast close to south of Puducherry within a few hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -74C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 13.0N and west of 81.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

POST LANDFALL OUTLOOK
======================

Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain its intensity for 12 hours and weaken gradually. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall is likely to continue over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during next 24 hours after landfall causing inundation of low lying areas. Gale/squally wind speed reaching 40-50 knots gusting to 55 knots causing damage to thatched roofs and huts breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during 12 hours after the landfall. People are advised to remain indoor/safe place and cooperate with state Govt. officials and disaster management agencies.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

3 HRS: 11.8N 79.9E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 11.8N 79.2E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 11.8N 77.0E - Low Pressure Area

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest Bay Of Bengal Close To Puducherry

Cyclone Warning for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Red Message

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and lays at centered near 11.8N 79.9E, very close to southeast of Puducherry.

The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast close to south of Puducherry within a few hours and weaken gradually.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -72C. Associated intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 13.5N and west of 80.5E. The convection is showing signs of weakening due to interaction with land surface.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The central pressure is 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system center.

Storm surge of about 1.0-1.5 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Puducherry and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram & Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

POST LANDFALL OUTLOOK
======================

Even after landfall the system is likely to maintain its intensity for 12 hours and weaken gradually. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy fall is likely to continue over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during next 24 hours after landfall causing inundation of low lying areas. Gale/squally wind speed reaching 45-50 knots gusting to 55 knots causing damage to thatched roofs and huts breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over north Tamil Nadu and Pudducherry during 12 hours after the landfall. People are advised to remain indoor/safe place and cooperate with state Govt. officials and disaster management agencies.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Crossed coast.

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward and crossed north Tamil Nadu coast between Cuddalore and Puducherry at around 0630 and 0730 AM IST (1:00 and 2:00 AM UTC). It then continued to move westwards and weakened into a severe cyclonic storm. Severe Cyclonic Storm Thane lays centered near 11.8N 79.5E about 30 Km west of Cuddalore and 35 Km southwest of Puducherry.

The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further.

The maximum gale wind speed of 65-75 knots has been reported over Puducherry and Cuddalore observatories of IMD.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
10:00 AM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (984 hPa) located at 13.2S 79.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM from the center extending up to 130 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.0S 78.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 76.9E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.9S 75.4E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.4S 74.4E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been relocated more towards the north relative to 00:00 AM UTC point. It continues to intensify for the last 6 hours. Latest visible satellite imagery shows a ragged eye and convection wrapping 1 lap around the center.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward then southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low level subtropical high pressure (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and the steering influence of a building ridge east of the system in the mid-levels. On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification. Low level inflows are good poleward and equatorward. Trough 48 hours, system will approach the axis of the upper level ridge near 17.0N and as a good upper level outflow channel is expected to build aloft poleward. So, maximum intensity should occur Sunday. Beyond 84 hours, system is expected to reach seas with marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0N and begin to weaken.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
18:00 PM FST December 30 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1002 hPa) located at 20.0S 160.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. The system lies under and upper diffluent region and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

ndia Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Severe Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' Weakened Rapidly Into A Deep Depression

At 6:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm over north Tamil Nadu near Cuddalore moved further westward and weakened rapidly into a deep depression. Deep Depression, Former Thane lays centered near 11.8N 79.0E, about 100 Km west of Cuddalore.

The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

6 HRS: 11.8N 78.3E - 25 knots (Depression)
12 HRS: 11.8N 77.6E - Low Pressure Area

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
16:00 PM RET December 30 2011
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (984 hPa) located at 13.4S 78.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 300 NM in the southeastern quadrant with gradient effect

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 14.0S 77.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.3S 76.5E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.3S 75.1E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.6S 74.0E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Benilde has globally weakened for the last 6 hours. Close to the center, convection is fluctuating and less organized. Within the next 72 hours, Available numerical weather prediction models are in goo agreement to forecast a southwestward track under the combined effects of a forecast weakness in the low level subtropical high pressure (in relationship with a transiting polar trough), and of the steering influence of a ridge existing east of the system in mid-levels. Divergences exist on the expected speed of the system. ECMWF is faster than ARPEGE and American consensus. On this track, system remains on the western edge of high-level high pressures located in the east with persistent moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Due to faster speed, ECMWF does not seem consider this wind shear and notable deepens the system up Monday. So uncertainty is significant for maximum system intensity. Beyond 72 hours, system is expected to rapidly weaken by reaching seas with marginal heat oceanic content south of 20.0S and strong westerly wind shear.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
DEPRESSION, FORMER THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 30 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over North Tamil Nadu.

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression moved west- southwestward weakened into a depression. Depression, Former Thane lays centered over north Tamil Nadu close to Salem.

The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.