November 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:26 PM GMT del 31 Ottobre 2011

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Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
JTWC25W - 1000 hPa

December

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
T201121.Washi/Sendong - 996 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa


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Northeast Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: RSMC Miami - National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
EP132011.Kenneth - 943 hPa

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North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
ARB02.Keila - 996 hPa
ARB03.NONAME - 1000 hPa
ARB04.NONAME - 998 hPa

December
BOB05.Thane - 976 hPa

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Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
01F.NONAME - 1004 hPa

December

02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa

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Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
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Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

02U.Fina - 995 hPa
04U.Grant - 978 hPa


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==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------------

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

01U(01R).Alenga - 968 hPa (moved east of 90E)
03U.NONAME - xx hPa

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Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

01R.Alenga - 982 hPa
02R.NONAME - 998 hPa
03R.NONAME - 1000 hPa
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa

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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 9 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Deep Depression over west central Arabian Sea moved northward and weakened into a depression. Depression ARB03-2011 lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 15.5N 58.5E, or 1800 km west northwest of Mangalore (India), 600 km northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 500 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman). The system is likely to move north northwestward initially and then westward towards the Gulf of Aden. During the next 48 hours, the system will gradually weaken due to colder sea and interaction with land surface.

Satellite imagery indicates vortex over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 58.7E. Dvorak intensity is T1.5./ CI 2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over west Arabian Sea between 16.0N to 19.0N and 56.5E to 61.5E. Moderate to intense convection over rest north Arabian sea north of 19.0N west of 65.0E and adjoining Oman. Minimum cloud top temperature due to convection is -77C. The convection has shown further disorganization during the past 12 hours. The convection is sheared to north northeastward under the influence of the trough in westerlies in middle and upper tropospheric levels.

The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 6 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 7. The phase 6 and 7 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) and not favorable for intensification. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region i high. There is rising tendency of 24 hours vertical wind shear (5-10 knots) around system. The system lies close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N The convection due to the system shows sheared to the north northeast under the influence of the upper tropospheric westerly trough which runs from 35.0N 55.0E to 17.0N 45.0E at 200 HPA.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST November 9 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
8:30 AM IST November 9 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB03-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved north-northwestwards and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 15.0N 58.5E, or about 1800 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 550 km northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 500 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move north-northwestwards initially and then westwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 48 hrs and weaken gradually due to colder sea and interaction with land surface.

Satellite imagery indicates vortex over west central Arabian Sea near 15.0N 58.7E. Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over west Arabian sea between 12.0N to 21.5N and 56.0E to 61.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -78C. The convection has shown signs of disorganization during past 12 hours. The convection is sheared to north northeastward under the influence of the trough in westerlies at 200 HPA level.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over Phase 6 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 7. the phase 6 and 7 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 26-28C. The ocean heat content is less (<40kj/cm2) and not favorable for intensification. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have not changed significantly in past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is moderate to high. There is no significant 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. Tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N. The convection due to the system shows sheared to the north northeast under the influence of the upper tropospheric westerly trough which roughly runs from 55.0N 70.0E to 17.0N 40.0E at 200 HPA. The convection also shows signs of disorganization during past 12 hours. Most of the models show intensification during next 12 hours then gradual weakening of the system thereafter.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

9 HRS: 16.0N 58.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS: 16.5N 57.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
45 HRS: 16.5N 55.5E - Low Pressure Area


Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST November 9 2011
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm (1007 hPa) located at 42.6N 6.4E, or 112 km southeast of Marseille (France), 205 km west northwest of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 45 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Surface data indicates that the persistent outer band in the NE quadrant of "01M/99L" may have been able to mix down stronger winds than previously anticipated with Porquerolles reporting steady winds of 50 knots and gusts of 80 knots. With more coastal stations showing steady winds only marginally weaker, "01M/99L" may have peaked in intensity this afternoon/evening as a strong tropical-like cyclone (we're not sure if indeed true tropical warm-core characteristica were present during that time with a vertically tilted/sheared core, a more asymmetric wind field and absence of DMC next to the center for a couple of hours). Since then, the convection weakened significantly but a 23:00 UTC ASCAT still indicates winds around 40 kt. Hence, the current intensity rating still exceeds the latest Dvorak classification. Banding structure remains good and pulsating convective re-development next to the center is still possible during the rest of the outlook. Excessive rainfall and severe wind gusts continue to affect the coast of S-France during the following hours although some weakening may occur as a consequence of weakening DMC.

There is no major change regarding path and intensity forecast compared to the 18 UTC update and hence this will be the last regular update. More informations will become available in the next Severe Weather Outlook Day 1.

If any unexpected intensification occurs, another update will be issued. Otherwise, we will now return to the regular outlook style.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST November 9 2011
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 42.8N 6.5E, or 112 km southeast of Marseille (France), 205 km west northwest of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 45 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary

Both shear and dry air seem to have taken their toll on 01M/99L. Latest HVIS data indicated a tilted vortex with the low level circulation center is somewhat displaced to the southwest (probably forced by modest northwest/westerly shear at higher levels). Current thinking is that if any warm-core structure is present, it will be a tilted one. Nevertheless, latest SAB update indicated another increase in strength and latest ASCAT data reveals 40-45 kt in the northern quadrant (some arrows not contaminated by ongoing DMC). The question arises, if this is not more typical for a subtropical feature due to ongoing modest shear. The system also has looped during the past few hours with only marginal movement to the north. A band of intense convection affects parts of SE-France right now and heavy to isolated excessive rainfall will be an imminent risk, next to an isolated tornado event with augmented LL shear! Further bands with heavy rainfall may affect southeastern France/west Ligurian coast during the night as the cyclone remains just offshore. Future intensity signals are mixed for 01M, as shear abates somewhat but it remains atop marginal cooler sea surface temperatures and it has drier air to the west to work with. Soundings upstream also confirm a slow warming trend at mid-levels. We would not be surprised to see a more pulsating activity of DMC next to the center/along the bands during the next 12-24h, but overall signs are more against another intense flare-up of persistent DMC. Models still show a stalling or westward moving system while weakening ahead of another upper trough over the far west Atlantic.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 8 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression ARB03-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 14.0N 59.0E, or about 1700 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India) 570 km east-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 620 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards initially and then westwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 72hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates vortex over south central Arabian Sea. Dvorak intensity of system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over west Arabian Sea between 10.5N to 20.0N and 55.0E to 62.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -77C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during next 2-3 days and then move to phase 6. The phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-30C. The ocean heat content is less (<50kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have not changed significantly in past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is no significant 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N. Most of the models shows intensification during next 24 hours then gradual weakening after 48 hours. The models suggest initial west northwest/northwestward movement during the next 36 hours and then southwestward movement towards the Gulf of Aden.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.5N 58.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm'
36 HRS: 15.0N 56.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
58 HRS: 15.0N 53.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST November 8 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northeast slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm (1003 hPa) located at 42.5N 6.2E, or 156 km southeast of Marseille (France), 210 km west of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 40 knots. The storm is reported moving east northeast at 5 knots.

The new update of SAB now indicates some weakening, as deep convection failed to re-develop mainly in the western part. Water vapor imagery also indicates some dry air intrusion from higher levels, which gradually raises concern about how pronounced the warm core structure is right now. However, intense DMC evolved in the last hour or so mainly in the eastern/northern part and starts to wrap around the center. UW CIMMS also hints on somewhat augmented shear, which should remain steady during the next few hours. The cyclone now starts to increase its forward speed and moves more to the east northeast to northeast. This may be the result of an upper wave, which passes by to the west. Models want to stall this feature just SW of Liguria as the upper waves moves off to the north later tonight. The risk for strong downpours and gusty winds may increases over far SE France and probably along the West Ligurian coast during the following hours.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST November 8 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 41.5N 5.8E, or 200 km southeast of Marseille (France), 233 km west of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 40 knots. The storm is reported moving east at 3 knots.

The center of the cyclone again became better organized with the strongest convection now in the southern and eastern part (maybe enhanced by the jet streak, which passes by to the southeast). Some slow movement to the east occurred but despite a further consolidating cyclone, latest reports do not indicate any strengthening
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
8:30 AM IST November 8 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central Arabian Sea Arabian Sea moved westwards and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB03-2011 lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 13.5N 60.0E, about 1600 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 650 km east-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 750 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and move west-northwestwards initially and then westwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 72 hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates vortex over south central Arabian Sea, Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Center not clear on infrared imagery. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Arabian Sea between 10.0N to 18.0N and 56.5E to 60.5E. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded isolated moderate to intense convection over Arabian Sea between 11.0N to 20.5N and 55.5E to 63.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature -81C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. Socotra Island reported sea level pressure of 1014 hPa.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5 with amplitude more that 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during next 2-3 days and then move to phase 6. The phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 27-28C. The ocean heat content is less (<50 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence has increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is no significant 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs 17.0N. Most of the models show intensification during next 24 hours and then gradual weakening after 48 hours. These models suggest initial west northwest/northwestward movement during next 48 hours and then southwestward movement towards Gulf of Aden

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

9 HRS: 14.0N 59.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS: 14.3N 58.5E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
27 HRS: 14.5N 57.8E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
51 HRS: 15.5N 55.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 41.4N 5.4E, or 178 km south of Marseille (France), 260 km west of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 40 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

The Satellite Analysis Branch upgraded the depression over the western Mediterranean to "Tropical System 01M", as convection persisted for an adequate time atop the center. Since then, deep convection weakened somewhat with warming cloud tops next to the center. Nevertheless, very good banding is now present in all quadrants with good outflow atop.

http://www.estofex.org (Unoffficial) European Storm Forecast Experiment

Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST November 8 2011
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 109.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST November 8 2011
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST November 7 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.0N 111.0E is reported as moving north northwest slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 7 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over south and adjoining central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 13.5N 60.5E, pr about 1550 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 700 km east-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 700 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move initially west-northwestwards and then northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates no significant change in convection and organization. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 13.0N to 19.0N and 55.6E to 64.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -79C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 6. The phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have not changed during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is moderate. There is no significant 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 16.0N.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST November 7 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, A Low Pressure (1004 hPa) located at 14.0N 111.0E is reported as moving north northwest slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574


Track for ARB03
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
8:30 AM IST November 7 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards during past 15 hours and lies over central parts of south and adjoining central Arabian sea near 11.5N 63.5E, or about 1250 km west-southwest of Mangalore (India), 1050 km east-southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 1200 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move initially west northwestwards and then northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 48 hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 10.0N to 18.0N and 56.0N to 64.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -86C

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-30C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 hPA level and upper level divergence have increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 knots). There is negative (5-10 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 16.0N.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 6 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during the past 6 hours and lays centered near 10.5N 65.5E, or about 1050 km west southwest of Mangalore (India), 1350 km east southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 1450 km southeast of Salalah, Oman. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move west northwestward towards the Gulf of Aden during the next 72 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization of the system. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 8.5N to 15.0N and 59.0N to 65.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -78C.

3 minutes sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more the 1. as per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence has increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative (5 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
11:30 AM IST November 6 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Arabian Sea and lays centered near 10.5N 65.5E, or about 1050 km west southwest of Mangalore (India), 1350 km east southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 1450 km southeast of Salalah (Oman). The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move west northwest towards the Gulf of Aden during next 72 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization of the system. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 8.5N to 15.0N and 59.0E to 65.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -78C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The ship near 9.5N 68.0E reported sea level pressure of 1010.5 hPa.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more the 1. as per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence has increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative (5 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST November 6 2011
=================================

The well marked low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea now lies over central parts of south and adjoining central Arabian sea. It is likely to move in a west northwesterly
direction.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 5 2011
=================================

The well marked low pressure area southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. It is likely to move in a west northwesterly direction.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST November 5 2011
================================

The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. The system is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:00 AM JST November 5 2011
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 11.0N 112.0E is reported as moving west northwest slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
11:30 AM IST November 4 2011
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central Arabian Sea close to Oman coast weakened into a low pressure area. Low Pressure Area, Former Keila will weaken further and become less marked during the next 24 hours.

At this current status this will be the final tropical cyclone advisory on this system.

Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 4 2011
==================================

The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. The system is likely to become more marked during next 48 hours.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST November 4 2011
==================================

Another low pressure area lies over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
8:30 AM IST November 4 2011
=========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over west central Arabian Sea near Oman coast moved slightly southwestward and weakened into a depression. Depression, Former Keila lays centered over west central Arabian Sea close to Oman coast near 16.5N 55.0E, or about 100 km southeast of Salalah. It is likely to meander over the same region and weaken into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off Oman and north Yemen coast.

The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection gradually disorganized during past 12 hours and depth of convection decreased. Associated moderate to intense convection over west central Arabian Sea, southeast Oman, adjoining Yemen between 14.5N to 19.0N west of 57.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -57C.

The relative vorticity and lower level convergence at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence at 200 hPa level has decreased during past 12 hours. THe vertical wind shear is moderate (15-20 knots). The system lies close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 17.5N
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
5:30 AM IST November 4 2011
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman remained practically stationary during past six hours and lays centered over Oman coast near 17.0N 55.5E, or about 150 km east of Salalah. It is likely to meander over the same region and weaken gradually.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1001 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off south Oman and north Yemen coast.

The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated moderate to intense convection is seen over area between 15.0N to 19.5N west of 58.0E, south Oman and adjoining Yemen. Minimum cloud top temperature is -55C.

The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence shows no significant change during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear is moderate (15-20 knots). The system lies close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 17.5N.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
28. whitewabit (Mod)
HGW ... really hard to read the areas that are flashing ... how did you do that anyway???
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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:00 AM JST November 4 2011
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 115.0E is reported as moving west slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
23:30 PM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman moved further eastward and lays centered over Oman coast neat 17.0N 55.5E, or about 150 km east of Salalah. It is likely to meander over the same region with same intensity for sometime.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1001 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off Oman and north Yemen coast

The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated moderate to intense convection is seen over area between 15.5N to 18.5N west of 58.0E, south Oman and adjoining Yemen. The minimum cloud top temperature is -57C, indicating decrease in convection.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Vertical wind shear is moderate to high (20-30 knots). The system lies very close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge in association with an anticyclonic circulation near to the east of the system.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
17:30 PM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman moved eastward and lay centered over Oman coast near 17.0N 55.0E, or about 100 km east of Salalah. It is likely to meander over the same region with same intensity for sometime.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off south Oman and north Yemen coast.

The Dvorak intensity of system is T2.0. Associated moderate to intense convection is seen over area between 15.5N to 18.5N west of 57.5E and south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast. Minimum cloud top temperature is -65, indicating decrease in convection.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. The vertical wind shear is moderate to high (20-30 knots) There is increase in vertical wind shear by 5-10 knots during past 24 hours. The system lies close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge in association with an anticyclonic circulation near the east of system. Salalah reported sea level pressure of 1003.6 hPa.

Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM JST November 3 2011
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 116.0E is reported as moving west slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 3 2011
===================================

The low pressure over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. The system is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:00 AM JST November 3 2011
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 117.0E is reported as moving west northwest slowly
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

A low pressure area lies over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
8:30 AM IST November 3 2011
=========================================


At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman remained practically stationary over the same area close to east of Salalah. It is likely to remain over the same area for some time and re-emerge into Arabian Sea by next 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off the coast of Oman and Yemen.

Associated intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 15.0N to 20.0N west of 57.5E, south Oman adjoining Yemen. Minimum cloud top temperature is -75C.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 6 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 6 hour. the system lies close to the north of upper tropospheric ridge in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the east southeast of system. Salalah reported surface wind of 21 knots.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
5:30 AM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman remained practically stationary and lays centered over the same area close to Salalah. It is likely to move west northwestward and weaken further. However, some numerical weather prediction models suggest re-emergence of the system into Arabian Sea hence the system will be monitored for further development.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots wit ha central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off the coast of Oman and Yemen.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1002.2 hPa.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
23:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved northwestward and crossed near Salalah. Deep Depression, Former Keila lays centered over coastal Oman close to Salalah.

It is likely to move west northwestward and weaken further. However, some numerical weather prediction models suggest re-emergence of the system into Arabian Sea. Hence the system will be monitored for further development.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level do no show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. the system lies to the show of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. The lowest mean sea level pressure reported by Salalah is 1003.4 hPa
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:00 AM JST November 3 2011
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1004 hPa) located at 8.0N 117.0E is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
20:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly north northwestward and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.8N 54.3E, or 30 km south southeast of Salalah, Oman and 470 km north northeast of Socotra Island, Yemen.

The system is likely to move west northwestward for some time and then westward, crossing south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to Salalah around Thursday evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea, Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5 to 20.0N - 52.5E to 58.0E, and Gulf of Oman adjoining rest of northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -67C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system.

STORM SURGE GUIDE
==================

Storm surge of height of 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence show no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system center and is not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear (-5 to -10 knots) around the system. THe system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system. The lowest mean sea level pressure reported by Salalah is 1001.5 hPa.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
21:00 PM JST November 2 2011
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 7.0N 118.0E is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
17:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly westward and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.5N 54.5E, or 70 kms southeast of Salalah, Oman and 450 km north northeast of Socotra Island, Yemen.

The system is likely to move west northwestward and for some time westward, crossing south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast near 16.5N (south of Salalah) Thursday evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea, Oman and adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N - 55.5E to 58.0E, and Gulf of Oman and adjoining rest northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -67C

The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center.

STORM SURGE GUIDE:
===================

The storm surge of height 1.0 above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C around the center. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and is not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1000.5 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 16.7N 54.3E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 16.7N 54.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 16.0N 51.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
14:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lays centered near 16.0N 54.5E, or 2200 km west northwest of Mangalore (India), 400 km north northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 120 km south southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move westward and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast near 16.0N (south of Salalah) around Thursday night.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area south of Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N and 52.5E to 58.0E and moderate to intense convection over northeast Oman adjoining northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -85C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system

Storm Surge Guide
==================

Storm surge of height of 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of wind shear (-5 to -10 knots). The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1005.9 hPa. Buoy near 16.5N 55.0E reported sea level pressure of 998.3 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

9 HRS: 16.0N 53.8E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 16.0N 52.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 15.5N 50.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
11:30 AM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic storm "KAILA" Over West Central Arabian Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved westward, and lay centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 54.5E, about 2200 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 400 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 120 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast near 16.0N (south of Salalah) around Thursday night

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area south of Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N and 52.5E to 58.0E and moderate to intense convection over northeast Oman adjoining northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -85C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system

Storm Surge Guide
==================

Storm surge of height of 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of wind shear (-5 to -10 knots). The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1005.9 hPa. Buoy near 16.5N 55.0E reported sea level pressure of 998.3 hPa.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM JST November 2 2011
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1004 hPa) located at 7.0N 120.0E is reported as moving west at 10 knots
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45574

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