November 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:26 PM GMT del 31 Ottobre 2011

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========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
JTWC25W - 1000 hPa

December

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
T201121.Washi/Sendong - 996 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa


-------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------

Northeast Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: RSMC Miami - National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
EP132011.Kenneth - 943 hPa

------------------------------------------------- --

------------------------------------------------- --

========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
ARB02.Keila - 996 hPa
ARB03.NONAME - 1000 hPa
ARB04.NONAME - 998 hPa

December
BOB05.Thane - 976 hPa

------------------------------------------------- --

=======================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
01F.NONAME - 1004 hPa

December

02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa

------------------------------------------------- --

==========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

02U.Fina - 995 hPa
04U.Grant - 978 hPa


------------------------------------------------- ---


==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------------

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

01U(01R).Alenga - 968 hPa (moved east of 90E)
03U.NONAME - xx hPa

------------------------------------------------- -----

==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December

01R.Alenga - 982 hPa
02R.NONAME - 998 hPa
03R.NONAME - 1000 hPa
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa

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RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET December 5 2011
==============================

1. Currently monitoring Severe Tropical Storm "Alenga" Latest advisory

2. Tropical disturbance located at 10:30Z near 16.2S 70.4E. ASCAT data along with latest satellite
imagery show a well defined LLCC associated with rather weak convective bands. Winds are in the 20-25 kts range and MSLP is estimated at 1001 hPa. The system is still slowly drifting southwards but should curve westwards soon on the northern edge of a building subtropical ridge. Within favorable atmospheric conditions (low vertical wind shear under the upper level ridge) but over waters with somewhat limited heat potential (26-27C at the surface), some slow development is possible within the next few days. Inhabitants of Rodrigues island should closely monitored the
evolution of this system.

For the next 72 hours, the potential for the development of a new tropical depression is fair to
good
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ALENGA (01-20112012)
16:30 PM RET December 5 2011
==============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Alenga (989 hPa) located at 12.2S 87.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
====================
15 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
80 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 87.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.2S 87.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.4S 91.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.2S 97.0E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Alenga keeps on intensifying. SSMI microwave imagery of 1034z shows mid-level eye features and suggest a significant reduction of the RMW. With this clear signs of intensification, Alenga is now classified as a severe tropical storm.

Current motion is still a slow westward track over the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge. As a high to mid level trough is approaching to the south between 80E and 90E. (CF water vapor imagery) and a equatorial ridge should rebuilt to the northeast of the system. Alenga is forecast to move a little within the next 24 hours before accelerating towards the southeast. All numerical weather prediction models agree with this although there is some substantial spread in the speed forecast. Current forecast is based on a consensus of all available models. On this forecast, the system should past east of 90E Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The shear continues to weaken. Given the favorable sea surface temperatures, steady intensification at least at a climatological rate is forecast and Alenga could become a tropical cyclone tomorrow. Thursday, an increase in vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should produce significant weakening.

The next tropical cyclone warning from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at around 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
ever visited JTWC site?
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Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALENGA (01-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 5 2011
==============================================

Latest satellite imagery and analysis indicate that the tropical depression located at 05/0530z near 12.3S 87.9E has intensified into a moderate tropical storm. It has been named "Alenga". The cyclone has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots and is reported as generally moving west at about 9 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
80 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.6S 87.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.0S 87.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.5S 90.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 17.0S 95.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

The system has rapidly intensified during the last 12 hours, with vigorous convection started in the western semi-circle and wrapping around the center. SSMIS and WINSAT pass of this morning depicts a well defined low level center with evidence of a low level eye feature. Consequently, the system has been named "ALENGA"

Current motion is showing westward track over the northwestern edge of the STR. As a high mid level mid-latitude trough is approaching to the south and an equatorial ridge should build to the northeast of the system, Alenga is forecast to move little within the next 24 hours before accelerating towards the southeast. All numerical weather prediction models agree with this although there is substantial spread in the speed forecast. Current forecast is based on a consensus of all available numerical weather prediction models. On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. There is still little bit of east northeasterly shear this morning but it is forecast to abate soon. Given the favorable sea surface temperatures, steady intensification at least at the climatological rate is forecast and ALENGA could become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. On Thursday, an increase of vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperature should produce significant weakening of the system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST December 4 2011
====================================

At midday WST Monday, a tropical low (ALENGA) was located near 12.2S 87.9E. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone to the west of 90E during Monday.

The system is expected to remain west of 90E on Tuesday but is likely to move into the Western region as a cyclone during Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================

Tuesday: Low (Out of AoR)
Wednesday: High
Thursday: High
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576


image is from Réunion METEO FRANCE website
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Well, since there might be something wrong with the RSMC for the southwestern Indian Ocean....

Madagascar Meteorological Services
0:00 AM UTC December 5 2011
=================================

Tropical Disturbance
15.7S 75.3E
10 min winds: 20-25 knots
Gusts: 30-35 knots
Pressure: 1002 hPa
Dvorak T1.5

Tropical Depression
12.2S 88.0E
10 min winds: 30 knots
Gusts: 45 knots
Pressure: 996 hPa
Dvorak: T2.5
Additional Information: Increasing
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
15:00 PM UTC December 4 2011
=================================

Cyclone 25W (TD) located at 8.6N 113.9E, or 440 NM east northeast of Ho Chi Ming, Vietnam has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Recent scatterometry and microwave data indicates cyclone sustained winds of 30 knots at the system's center. Maximum significant wave height associated with 25W is 12 feet.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST December 4 2011
=========================

a low was located near 11.4S 91.3E. The low is moving towards the southwest and is likely to cross 90E late Sunday or early Monday.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Monday or Tuesday west of 90E. The system may re-enter the Western region during Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Monday: Low (Out of AoR)
Tuesday: Low (Out of AoR)
Wednesday: Moderate
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
shear is being a problem though with 98S.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
JTWC gives the area around 67E 10S a high chance of developing, more likely then the area near 95E 7S
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RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET December 2 2011
=================================

Two broad low pressure areas are currently present just to the south of the ITCZ.

The first one is located in our AoR between 10S-15S and 63E-75E. It is stretched along a northwest/southeast axis and the associated convective activity has clearly improved during the last night, but remains fluctuating, as it is always undergoing a moderate to strong vertical wind shear.

Latest SCAT data, surface reports and satellite data show the completely exposed LLCC currently located in the eastern part of the broad system near 12.4S 69.4 E at 1000 AM UTC. MSLP is estimated at 1003 hPa (according buoy 14043) and winds are in the 10-20 kt range, reaching 25 kt far from the center
in the northern and southern sector.

Due to marginal low level inflow and east north-easterly shear (although it should gradually abate
along the week-end), there is a very low potential for cyclogenesis within the next three days.
However, all available NWP guidance keep this low although the forecast period as it should slowly
drift eastwards.

The second one is currently located East of 95E. Some slow development is possible within the next
three days as it should move generally south westwards. Current outlook call for a possible come in our Area of Responsibility Sunday night or Monday morning.

For the next 48 hours, there is no potential for the development of a tropical depression. It becomes
poor Monday with the potential arrival in our Area of Responsibility of the low currently located in the Indonesian Area of Responsibility
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST December 3 2011
=========================

A weak low has developed near 8S 97E. The low is expected to drift south of 10S into the Western Region during Sunday. It should then move westwards, and is expected to pass west of 090E during Monday.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Monday or Tuesday, but is likely to remain below cyclone strength until it moves west of 90E.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Sunday: Low
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Low (Out of AoR)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:06 AM WIT December 3 2011
====================================

Suspect area with minimum pressure (1006 mb) is observed in Indian Ocean near 8.3S 96.0E, or about 1213 km west-southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. The system is reported as moving southward slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET December 2 2011
=================================

Two broad low pressure areas are currently present just to the south of the ITCZ.

The first one is located in our area of responsibility between 10S-20S and 65E-80E. It is stretched along a northwest/southeast axis and show a poorly organized thunderstorm activity. It appears that the low previously monitored to the southeast of Diego Garcia is now dissipated within the eastern part of this broad low pressure system.

Latest SCAT data, surface reports and satellite data show that a new LLCC is currently located in the
western part of the broad system near 12.2S 69.2E at 1000 UTC. MSLP is estimated at 1004 hPa (according buoy 14043) and winds are in the 10/20 kt range.
Due to marginal low level inflow and east northeasterly shear (although it should gradually abate along the week-end), there is a very low potential for cyclogenesis within the next three days.

However, all available NWP guidance keep this low although the forecast period as it should slowly
drift eastwards.

The second one is currently located in the Indonesian area of responsibility. It is located at 0700 UTC near 6.0S 98.2E. Some slow development is possible within the next three days as it should move generally southwestwards. Current outlook call for a possible come in our area of responsibility Sunday night or Monday morning.

For the next 48 hours, there is no potential for the development of a tropical depression. It becomes
poor Monday with the potential arrival in our area of responsibility of the low currently located in the Indonesian area of responsibility.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST December 2 2011
=========================

A weak low may develop near 7S 97E later on Friday. The low is expected to drift south of 10S into the Western Region during Saturday. It should then move westwards, and will most likely pass west of 090E during Monday.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Sunday or Monday, but is more likely to remain below cyclone strength until it moves west of 90E.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST December 1 2011
=========================

A weak low may develop near 05S 97E late Thursday or Friday. The low may drift south of 10S into the Western region during Sunday but is likely to be located west of 90E by Monday.

The low is not expected to develop into a tropical
cyclone in the Western region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Low
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST December 1 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central and adjoining east central Arabian sea remained practically stationary near 19.5N 62.5E and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over the same area.

It is likely to weaken further into a low pressure area during the next 24 hours.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the India Meteorological Department
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST November 30 2011
=========================

There is a weak low near 05S 097E which might drift to south of 10S on Saturday, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==========================
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Low

Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
23:30 PM IST November 30 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central And Adjoining North & East Central Arabian Sea.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered near 19.0N 62.5E, 1100 km west of Mumbai (India), 400 km east-southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 800 km southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move north-northwestwards and weaken gradually.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
17:30 PM IST November 30 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central And Adjoining East Central Arabian Sea.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved northwards and lays centered over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea near 18.0N 63.5E, or 1000 km west-southwest of Mumbai (India), 550 km southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 850 km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move northwards slowly and maintain the same intensity for some more time.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection is sheared to northwest with outflow towards north northeast reaching up to northern Pakistan. The lowest cloud top temperature is around -75C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area north of 18.5N and from 60.0E to 67.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The system lies closest to upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 19.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over west central India. Sea surface temperature is 26C. The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence show no significant change during the past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region shows no change. The vertical win is high between 30-40 knots. As the system has moved closer to ridge, it is likely to move northward slowly and weaken gradually due to high wind shear and dissipate over seas by tomorrow.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET November 30 2011
=================================

More eastern deep convective activity concentrates within a low monitored yesterday near 7.3S 76.5E. Clusters remains too short-lived (about 06 hours cyclic) between 10S to 16S from 65E to 80E.

At 0500UTC, low level circulation center was partially exposed near 10.5S/75.0E moving south southwestwards at 12kt.

MSLP is estimated at 1005 ha with maximum winds at about 15/20kt very locally reaching 25kt. On the northern edge of the upper level ridge (axed near 15S), this low is undergoing a east northeasterly
moderate to strong vertical wind shear. Low level inflow is good equatorward but weak poleward due to a transient mid-lat trough. The low is expected to keep on tracking globally southwestwards in this rather unfavorable environment and is not expected to deepen significantly within the next 2 days.
On and after Saturday, the low should penetrating in a less sheared area (under the upper level ridge)
and poleward low level inflow should improve significantly as the subtropical ridge rebuilds from
the south-west. As this environmental conditions becomes better for cyclogenesis, convective activity should however remain limited in relationship with mid-level dry air penetrating into the western
part of the circulation (referring to IFS 500hPa humidity field).

Available NWP model are in good agreement and any of them deep this low significantly at short or
medium range.

Development of a tropical depression remains poor within the next 3 days.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 30 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, ARB04-2011 over east central and adjoining areas of west central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea near 17.5N 63.5E, or 1000 km west-southwest of Mumbai (India), 600 km southeast of Masirah (Oman) and 950 km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move northwestwards and maintain the same intensity for some time.

Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
5:30 AM IST November 30 2011
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over east central and adjoining areas of west central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered near 17.0N 64.5E, 900 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 650 km southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 900 km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards and dissipate over the sea during next 24 hours.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
23:30 PM IST November 29 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over East Central Arabian Sea.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011over east central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered near 16.4N 65.5E, 800 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 850 km southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 950 km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards and dissipate over the sea during next 36 hours.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET November 29 2011
=================================

Surface observatoons (ship JNSR) along with ASCAT data of yesterday evening (1609Z) and this morning (0453Z) suggest that a weak low has formed in this area (position based on meteosat7 data at 0930 utc: 7.3S 76.5E). Estimated MSLP is 1005hPa and winds are in the 15-20 kt range reaching locally 25 kt. Initial motion seems to be about 10 kt towards the south southwest.

At present time, environmental conditions appear marginal with rather strong shear and poor monsoon inflow. SST are in the 29°C range. Within the next few days, if the current southwestwards fast moving motion continues, shear should gradually decrease (mainly south of 10S). Low level inflow should stay marginal a part of Wednesday (weaker subtropical ridge due to a transient mid-lat trough), but should improve significantly after that as the ridge rebuilds from the southwest associated to a forecast rather strong monsoon flow between 60E and 80E.

Development of a tropical depression becomes poor to fair Wednesday and fair Thursday.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
17:30 PM IST November 29 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over East Central Arabian Sea Weakens Into A Depression.

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over east central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during past six hours and weakened into a depression. Depression ARB04-2011 lays centered near 16.0N 66.5E, or 750 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 800 km west of Goa, 950 km southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 1050 km south of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards and dissipate over the sea during next 36 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection shows further disorganization during the past 6 hours. However, the center of the system in visible imagery is very clear. The lowest cloud top temperature is -60C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 17.0N to 24.0N and 60E to 69.0E. The convection is sheared to the northwest of low level convergence by about 150 nautical miles.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center.

The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over west central India. As a result, the system lies in the southwestern periphery of this anticyclonic circulation in middle and upper troposphere. Sea surface temperature is 29C around the system and gradually decreases to north and west. The ocean heat content is less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and north Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hpa level and upper level divergence has decreased during the past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal winds over the region has increased as the system moved west northwestward and came under the influence of approaching westerly trough which runs along 50.0E to the north of 15.0N in middle and upper troposphere. The vertical wind shear is high, as the system will move closer to west central Arabian Sea. The system will also experience colder sea surface temperatures.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

6 HRS: 16.2N 66.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
12 HRS: 16.4N 65.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
36 HRS: 17.3N 63.5E - Low Pressure Area

Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 29 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over East Central Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved further west-northwestwards and lays centered near 16.0N 66.5E, or 750 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 800 km west of Goa, 950 km southeast of Masirah(Oman), and 1050 km south of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 60 hrs. The system is likely to weaken gradually after 24 hrs.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The convection shows slight disorganization during past 6 hours. However, the center of the system in visible imagery is very clear. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -80C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 15.0N to 22.0N and 60.0E to 70.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure of the system is 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 16.2N 66.0E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 16.4N 65.5E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
36 HRS: 17.3N 63.5E - 25-30 knots (Depression)
60 HRS: 18.3N 61.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
8:30 AM IST November 29 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved slightly west-northwestwards and lays centered near 15.7N 66.8E, or 750 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 750 km west of Goa, 1000 km southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 1050 km south of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 60 hrs. The system is likely to weaken gradually after 24 hrs.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
5:30 AM IST November 29 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over East Central Arabian Sea.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved westwards and lays centered near 15.5N 67.0E, or 770 km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 730 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 700 km west of Goa, and 1040 km southeast of Masirah(Oman).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 60 hrs and weaken gradually.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

6 HRS: 16.0N 66.5E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 16.3N 66.0E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
36 HRS: 17.5N 63.0E - 25-30 knots (Depression)
60 HRS: 19.0N 59.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
23:30 PM IST November 28 2011
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered near latitude 15.5N 67.5E, or 750 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 700 km southwest of Mumbai, 650 km west of Goa and 1100 km southeast of Masirah(Oman).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET November 28 2011
=================================

During the last 24 hours, thunderstorm activity has strengthened within the oriental part of the ITCZ
between equator to 10S and 70E to 85E. At this time, it remains fluctuating and without any organization. Surface obs (buoys 23010 and 23692) along with ASCAT data of yesterday evening (1630Z) and this morning (0332Z) suggest that a weak low has formed in this area (position based on ascat data: 4.8S 80.0E). Estimated MSLP is 1006 hPa and winds are in the 5-15 kts range reaching locally 20 kt in the southern semi-circle. Initial motion seems to be rather fast at 10-15 kt towards the Southwest.

At present time, environmental conditions appear marginal with rather strong shear and poor
monsoon inflow. SST are in the 29°C range. Within the next few days, if the current
southwestwards fast moving motion continues, shear should gradually decrease (mainly south of
10S). Low level inflow should stay marginal Tuesday and part of Wednesday (weaker subtropical
ridge due to a transient mid-lat trough), but should improve significantly after that as the ridge
rebuits from the southwest associated to a forecast rather strong monsoon flow between 60E and
80E.

Development of a tropical depression is not expected Tuesday. It becomes poor to fair Wednesday
and Thursday.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
17:30 PM IST November 28 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC. Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered near 15.0N 68.0E, or 650 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 700 km southwest of Mumbai, (India) 600 km west-southwest of Goa and 1150 km southeast of Masirah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The convection shows slight disorganization during past 6 hours, however, it may be temporarily due to diurnal variation. The organization of the convection attained peak intensity at around 6:00 AM UTC. The lowest cloud top temperature is around -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 13.0N to 21.0N and 61.0E to 71.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure is 998 hPa and the state of the sea is very rough around the system.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index lies in phase 3 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical forecast it would lie over the same phase 3 during next 3-4 days. Phase 3 is favorable for intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 29C around the system and gradually decreases to north and west. The ocean heat content is (80-90 kj/cm2) over southeast and central Arabian sea and less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and northern Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence do not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has not changed during past 6 hours, it is moderate to high. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over central India. As a result, the system lies in the southwestern periphery of this anticyclonic circulation in middle and upper tropospheric. However, after 24 hours, the system will move closer to west central Arabian Sea it will experience colder sea and also increase in vertical wind shear due to approaching westerly trough at middle and upper level which runs along 45.0E to the north of 15.0N. As a result if may show weakening trend after 24 hours. While some models like ECMWF suggest initial west northwest movemennt and then southwestwards. The GFS model shows northeastward recurvature of the system after 72 hours when the system reaches 20.0N.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 15.3N 67.3E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 15.6N 66.6E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 17.2N 63.0E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 18.5N 60.5E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 28 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over East Central Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered near 14.5N 69.0E, or 500 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 650 km southwest of Mumbai and 600 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 15.0N 68.0E - 30-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 15.5N 67.0E - 30-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 17.5N 63.5E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 19.0N 61.0E - 25-30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
8:30 AM IST November 28 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered near 14.0N 69.5E, or 450 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 650 km southwest of Mumbai and 600 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.

3 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure of the system is 998 hPa.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
5:30 AM IST November 28 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression O ver East Central Arabian Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over east central Arabian Sea continued to move northwestwards and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB04-2011 lays centered near 13.5N 70.0E, or 400 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 700 km southwest of Mumbai and 550 km west of Manglore (Karnataka).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 24 hrs. and then it is likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity is T2.0. The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 13.0N to 19.0N and 64.0E to 71.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 14.5N 69.0E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 15.0N 68.0E - 30-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 16.0N 65.5E - 30-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 17.0N 63.0E - 25-30 knots (Depression)
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
23:30 PM IST November 27 2011
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Lakshadweep area continued to move northwestwards and lays centered over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian sea near 12.5N 71.0E, or 240 km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 750 km southwest of Mumbai and 400 km west of Manglore (Karnataka).

The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 48 hrs.

Damage expected over Lakshadweep Islands: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
17:30 PM IST November 27 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Lakshadweep area continued to move northwestwards and lays centered over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea near 12.0N 71.5E, 150 Km northwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island) and 350 km north-northwest of Manglore(Karnataka).

The system is likely to intensify slowly into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 72 hrs.

Damage expected over Lakshadweep Islands: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection shows no significant change during past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -89C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 11.0N to 16.5N and 66.0E to 72.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index lies in phase 3 with amplitude of more than 1. As per the dynamical it would lie over the same phase 3 during the next 3-4 days. Phase 3 is favorable for intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 29C around the system and gradually decreasing to the north and west. The ocean heat content is less (80-90 kj/cm2) over southeast and east central Arabian Sea and less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and northern Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hpa level and upper level divergence show no change during past 12 hours. The vertical win shear of horizontal wind over the region continues to be high. There is no significant change in 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 16.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andhra Pradesh as a result the system lies in the southwestern periphery of this anticyclonic circulation in middle and upper troposphere. The high vertical wind shear will continue to inhibit the intensification of the system. As the system will move further north and lie closer to the ridge, the vertical wind shear will decrease, leading to intensification.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 27 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Lakshadweep area moved further northwestwards and lays centered over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood near 11.0N 72.5E, or close to Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 300 km north-northwest of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Island) and 750 km north-northwest of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to intensify slowly into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 72 hrs.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
8:30 AM IST November 27 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Lakshadweep area moved northwestwards and lays centered over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood near 10.5N 73.0E, or about 70 km southeast of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 250 km north of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Island) and 700 km north-northwest of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 72 hrs.

Damage expected over Lakshadweep Islands: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection shows no significant change during the past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 8.0N to 15.0N and 66.0E to 74.0E

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 24 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The system has a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index lies in phase 3 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical it would lie over the same phase 3 during the next 3-4 days. Phase 3 is favorable intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 29C and gradually decreasing to north and west. The ocean heat content is less (80-90 kj/cm2) over southeast and east central Arabian Sea and less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and north Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hpa level have increased during past 12 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is high (between 20-30 knots) There is no significant change in 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around system center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 16.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andhra Pradesh as a result the system lies in the southwestern periphery of this anticyclonic circulation in middle and upper tropospheric. The high vertical wind shear inhibited the rapid intensification of the system. As the system will move further north and lie closer to the ridge, the vertical wind shear will increase to intensification of the system.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
5:30 AM IST November 27 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Comorin, adjoining Maldives, and Lakshadweep area moved northwestwards and lays centered near 9.5N 74.0E, or about 220 km southeast of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep Island), 170 km north-northeast of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Island), 350 km west-northwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala) and 600 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 72 hrs.

Damage expected over Lakshadweep Islands: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576


southwestern Indian Ocean tropical cyclone potential.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
115. ycd0108 11:05 PM GMT

yup. It looks like a disturbance is trying to form. CMC has not much happening with it.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
Looks to me as if something is coming together behind the leftovers of Kenney
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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
23:30 PM IST November 26 2011
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Comorin, adjoining Maldives, and Lakshadweep area remained practically stationary during past six hours and lays centered near 8.5N 75.0E, or about 220 km west of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), 210 km east-northeast of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Island), 550 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 72 hrs.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
17:30 PM IST November 26 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadweep area moved northwestwards and lays centered over Lakshadweep area, adjoining Maldives, and Comorin area near 8.5N 75.0E, about 220 km west of Thiruvananthapuram (K erala), 210 km east-northeast of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Island), 550 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 72 hrs.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection shows no significant change during past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 5.5N to 11.0N and 68.0E to 76.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system. Amini Divi to the northwest of system reported surface low pressure of 1001.9 hPa with winds of 30 knots; Minicoy reported surface low pressure of 1002.3 hPa. Pressure tendency is about -2 to -3 hPa over Lakshadweep area.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase or phase 3 during next 3-4 days. Phase 2 and 3 are favorable for genesis and intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (70-80 kj/cm2) over southeast and east central Arabian Sea and less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and north Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity at 850 hPa level and upper level divergence are favorable for intensification. The vertical win shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 kts). There is negative (5-10 kts) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 16.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over southeast peninsular India and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 26 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over Comorin area and neighborhood moved west-northwestwards and lays centered over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadeep area near 8.0N 75.5E, or about 150 km south-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), 300 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadeep Island), 500 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep area and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
8:30 AM IST November 26 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over Comorin area and neighborhood. Depression ARB04-2011 is located at 7.5N 76.5E, or about 120 km south-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), 400 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadeep Island), 400 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep area and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center. The ship near 7.5N 75.5E reported surface low pressure of 1002.8 hPa with winds of 23 knots. The 24 hours pressure tendency is about 3 hPa over Kerala and Lakshadweep area.

According to satellite imageries, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection clusters have merged into each other and has organized and deepened during past 24 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 6.5N to 10.0N and 71.0E to 76.0E and moderate to intense convection over extreme south Tamil Nadu, south Kerala, and rest southeast Arabian Sea, Maldives, and Lakshadweep area.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase or phase 3 during next 3-4 days. Phase 2 and 3 are favorable for genesis and intensification of the system over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (70-80 kj/cm2) over southeast and east central Arabian Sea and less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and north Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity at 850 hPa level and upper level divergence are favorable for intensification. The vertical win shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 kts). There is negative (5-10 kts) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 14.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over southeast peninsular India and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET November 25 2011
================================

Available surface obs show that a broad and elongated clockwise circulation exists over the area axed along 7S to 8S and between 55Eto 60E. 0439Z SSMIS microwave data and latest satellite imagery suggest that the current center may be located close to the east of Coëtivy (Seychelles archipelago) near 7.5S 57.5E and an estimated MSLP at 1005 hPa.

Associated winds are in the 10-20 kts range reaching locally 25 kta in the northwestern quadrant.

Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for significant development within the next few days: Monsoon low level inflow should gradually become less and less efficient tomorrow (due
to a potential cyclogenesis in the northern hemisphere near the southwestern coast of India between 70E to 80E). Trade winds inflow should lessen somewhat Sunday with a weaker subtropical ridge.

Easterly shear is currently moderate to strong (15-20 kts according to CIMSS analysis) and should
strengthen Sunday.

Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours.
Member Since: Maggio 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45576

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