TD Alvin - Baja California, Mexico

Re-posted from previous blog...

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
17:30 PM IST October 31 2011
=========================================

Depression Over West Central Arabian Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, DEPRESSION ARB02-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved northwestward and lay centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 57.5E, about 1900 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 550 km northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 400 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The depth of convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 14.0N to 21.0N west of 65.0E and adjoining Saudi Arabia. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -79C.

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level shows slight increase in past 12 hours and upper level divergence show no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C to the western side of system. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is positive 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear to the east of system and no significant change on western side of system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1003.0 hPa.

The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to south of Salalah around Wednesday morning.

The depression is not expected to cause adverse weather along and off west of coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:00 AM JST November 1 2011
============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1004 hPa) located at 6.0N 128.0E is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:00 AM JST November 1 2011
============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 7.0N 127.0E is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
8:30 AM IST November 1 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over West Central Arabian Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into deep depression. Deep Depression ARB02-2011 lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 56.0E, or about 2000 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka), 450 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 230 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to south of Salalah around Wednesday morning.

The depth of convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 13.0N to 18.5N and 51.5E to 58.0E and between 18.5N to 22.5N and 55.0E to 63.0E, including adjacent Oman coast. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -84C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during the past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system center and is not favorable for intensification over gulf of aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate (5-10 knots). There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1004.0 hPa.

Though most of the models suggest movement towards Gulf of Aden/Oman coast, there is large variation in track forecast. ECMWF model show west northwestward movement during the next 48 hours.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2011
17:30 PM IST November 1 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over West Central Arabian Sea.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression ARB02-2011 over west central Arabian Sea moved westward and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 55.5E, or about 2100 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 400 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 200 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to south of Salalah around Wednesday evening/night.


The depth of convection shows no change during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area from 13.5N to 20.0N and 50.5E to 57.0E, southeast Oman. Moderate to intense convection over rest northwest Arabian Sea, res north Oman between 19.0N to 24.0N and 55.0E to 65.0E and adjoining Gulf of Oman. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -82C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear 9-5 to -10 knots around the system center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is negative along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1001.2 hPa. Though most of the models suggest movement towards Gulf of Aden/Oman coast, there is large variation in track and intensity forecast. ECMWF model shows west northwestward movement during next 48 hours

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

6 HRS: 16.1N 55.2E - 30 to 35 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS: 16.7N 54.2E - 40 to 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 17.5N 52.8E - 30 to 35 knots (Deep Depression)
72 HRS: 18.N 51.0E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:00 AM JST November 2 2011
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1004 hPa) located at 8.0N 123.0E is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:00 AM JST November 2 2011
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 121.0E is reported as moving west northwest slowly

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
8:30 AM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Intensified Into A Cyclonic Storm KEILA Over West Central Arabian Sea .

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over west central Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a cyclonic storm. Cyclonic Storm Keila lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 55.0E, or about 2150 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 400 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 150 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast to south of Salalah around Thursday night/evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area south Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N and 52.5E to 58.0E and moderate to intense convection over northeast Oman adjoining northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system center.

Storm Surge Guide
=================

Storm surge of height 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C around the center. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 knots) There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear (-5 to -10 knots) around the center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of center. 24 hour pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1004 hPA. Buoy near 16.5N 55.1E reported sea level pressure of 999.2 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

09 HRS: 16.0N 54.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 16.0N 53.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 16.0N 52.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM JST November 2 2011
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1004 hPa) located at 7.0N 120.0E is reported as moving west at 10 knots

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
11:30 AM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic storm "KAILA" Over West Central Arabian Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved westward, and lay centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.0N 54.5E, about 2200 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 400 km north-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 120 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move westwards and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast near 16.0N (south of Salalah) around Thursday night

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area south of Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N and 52.5E to 58.0E and moderate to intense convection over northeast Oman adjoining northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -85C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system

Storm Surge Guide
==================

Storm surge of height of 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of wind shear (-5 to -10 knots). The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1005.9 hPa. Buoy near 16.5N 55.0E reported sea level pressure of 998.3 hPa.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
14:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lays centered near 16.0N 54.5E, or 2200 km west northwest of Mangalore (India), 400 km north northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 120 km south southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to move westward and cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast near 16.0N (south of Salalah) around Thursday night.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area south of Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N and 52.5E to 58.0E and moderate to intense convection over northeast Oman adjoining northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -85C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system

Storm Surge Guide
==================

Storm surge of height of 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of wind shear (-5 to -10 knots). The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1005.9 hPa. Buoy near 16.5N 55.0E reported sea level pressure of 998.3 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

9 HRS: 16.0N 53.8E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 16.0N 52.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 15.5N 50.0E - 25 knots (Depression)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
17:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly westward and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.5N 54.5E, or 70 kms southeast of Salalah, Oman and 450 km north northeast of Socotra Island, Yemen.

The system is likely to move west northwestward and for some time westward, crossing south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast near 16.5N (south of Salalah) Thursday evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea, Oman and adjoining Yemen between 13.5N to 20.0N - 55.5E to 58.0E, and Gulf of Oman and adjoining rest northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -67C

The 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center.

STORM SURGE GUIDE:
===================

The storm surge of height 1.0 above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C around the center. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the center and is not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system center. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. 24 hours pressure tendency is positive along Oman coast. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1000.5 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 16.7N 54.3E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 16.7N 54.0E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 16.0N 51.5E - 25 knots (Depression)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
21:00 PM JST November 2 2011
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 7.0N 118.0E is reported as moving west at 10 knots

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM KEILA (ARB02-2011)
20:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly north northwestward and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 16.8N 54.3E, or 30 km south southeast of Salalah, Oman and 470 km north northeast of Socotra Island, Yemen.

The system is likely to move west northwestward for some time and then westward, crossing south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to Salalah around Thursday evening.

The convection has increased during past 12 hours. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea, Oman adjoining Yemen between 13.5 to 20.0N - 52.5E to 58.0E, and Gulf of Oman adjoining rest of northwest Arabian Sea. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -67C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system.

STORM SURGE GUIDE
==================

Storm surge of height of 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is expected near the landfall point.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence show no change during past 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. The ocean heat content is less (<40 kj/cm2) around the system center and is not favorable for intensification over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian Sea. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region has decreased and favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear (-5 to -10 knots) around the system. THe system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system. The lowest mean sea level pressure reported by Salalah is 1001.5 hPa.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:00 AM JST November 3 2011
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1004 hPa) located at 8.0N 117.0E is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
23:30 PM IST November 2 2011
=========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Keila over west central Arabian Sea moved northwestward and crossed near Salalah. Deep Depression, Former Keila lays centered over coastal Oman close to Salalah.

It is likely to move west northwestward and weaken further. However, some numerical weather prediction models suggest re-emergence of the system into Arabian Sea. Hence the system will be monitored for further development.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level do no show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. the system lies to the show of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. The lowest mean sea level pressure reported by Salalah is 1003.4 hPa

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
5:30 AM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman remained practically stationary and lays centered over the same area close to Salalah. It is likely to move west northwestward and weaken further. However, some numerical weather prediction models suggest re-emergence of the system into Arabian Sea hence the system will be monitored for further development.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots wit ha central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off the coast of Oman and Yemen.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs roughly along 18.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system. The lowest mean sea level pressure has been reported by Salalah of 1002.2 hPa.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
8:30 AM IST November 3 2011
=========================================


At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman remained practically stationary over the same area close to east of Salalah. It is likely to remain over the same area for some time and re-emerge into Arabian Sea by next 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off the coast of Oman and Yemen.

Associated intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 15.0N to 20.0N west of 57.5E, south Oman adjoining Yemen. Minimum cloud top temperature is -75C.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 6 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 6 hour. the system lies close to the north of upper tropospheric ridge in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the east southeast of system. Salalah reported surface wind of 21 knots.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

A low pressure area lies over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:00 AM JST November 3 2011
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 117.0E is reported as moving west northwest slowly

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 3 2011
===================================

The low pressure over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. The system is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM JST November 3 2011
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 116.0E is reported as moving west slowly

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
17:30 PM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman moved eastward and lay centered over Oman coast near 17.0N 55.0E, or about 100 km east of Salalah. It is likely to meander over the same region with same intensity for sometime.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off south Oman and north Yemen coast.

The Dvorak intensity of system is T2.0. Associated moderate to intense convection is seen over area between 15.5N to 18.5N west of 57.5E and south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast. Minimum cloud top temperature is -65, indicating decrease in convection.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 HPA level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. The vertical wind shear is moderate to high (20-30 knots) There is increase in vertical wind shear by 5-10 knots during past 24 hours. The system lies close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge in association with an anticyclonic circulation near the east of system. Salalah reported sea level pressure of 1003.6 hPa.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
23:30 PM IST November 3 2011
=========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman moved further eastward and lays centered over Oman coast neat 17.0N 55.5E, or about 150 km east of Salalah. It is likely to meander over the same region with same intensity for sometime.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1001 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off Oman and north Yemen coast

The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated moderate to intense convection is seen over area between 15.5N to 18.5N west of 58.0E, south Oman and adjoining Yemen. The minimum cloud top temperature is -57C, indicating decrease in convection.

The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hPa level do not show significant change in past 12 hours and upper level divergence shows no change during past 12 hours. Vertical wind shear is moderate to high (20-30 knots). The system lies very close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge in association with an anticyclonic circulation near to the east of the system.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:00 AM JST November 4 2011
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 115.0E is reported as moving west slowly

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
5:30 AM IST November 4 2011
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Keila over coastal Oman remained practically stationary during past six hours and lays centered over Oman coast near 17.0N 55.5E, or about 150 km east of Salalah. It is likely to meander over the same region and weaken gradually.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1001 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off south Oman and north Yemen coast.

The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated moderate to intense convection is seen over area between 15.0N to 19.5N west of 58.0E, south Oman and adjoining Yemen. Minimum cloud top temperature is -55C.

The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence shows no significant change during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear is moderate (15-20 knots). The system lies close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 17.5N.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
DEPRESSION, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
8:30 AM IST November 4 2011
=========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over west central Arabian Sea near Oman coast moved slightly southwestward and weakened into a depression. Depression, Former Keila lays centered over west central Arabian Sea close to Oman coast near 16.5N 55.0E, or about 100 km southeast of Salalah. It is likely to meander over the same region and weaken into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough along and off Oman and north Yemen coast.

The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection gradually disorganized during past 12 hours and depth of convection decreased. Associated moderate to intense convection over west central Arabian Sea, southeast Oman, adjoining Yemen between 14.5N to 19.0N west of 57.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -57C.

The relative vorticity and lower level convergence at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence at 200 hPa level has decreased during past 12 hours. THe vertical wind shear is moderate (15-20 knots). The system lies close to the south of upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 17.5N

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST November 4 2011
==================================

Another low pressure area lies over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 4 2011
==================================

The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. The system is likely to become more marked during next 48 hours.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER KEILA (ARB02-2011)
11:30 AM IST November 4 2011
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central Arabian Sea close to Oman coast weakened into a low pressure area. Low Pressure Area, Former Keila will weaken further and become less marked during the next 24 hours.

At this current status this will be the final tropical cyclone advisory on this system.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:00 AM JST November 5 2011
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) located at 11.0N 112.0E is reported as moving west northwest slowly

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST November 5 2011
================================

The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. The system is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 5 2011
=================================

The well marked low pressure area southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea persists. It is likely to move in a west northwesterly direction.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST November 6 2011
=================================

The well marked low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea now lies over central parts of south and adjoining central Arabian sea. It is likely to move in a west northwesterly
direction.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
11:30 AM IST November 6 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Arabian Sea and lays centered near 10.5N 65.5E, or about 1050 km west southwest of Mangalore (India), 1350 km east southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 1450 km southeast of Salalah (Oman). The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move west northwest towards the Gulf of Aden during next 72 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization of the system. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 8.5N to 15.0N and 59.0E to 65.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -78C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The ship near 9.5N 68.0E reported sea level pressure of 1010.5 hPa.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more the 1. as per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence has increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative (5 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 6 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during the past 6 hours and lays centered near 10.5N 65.5E, or about 1050 km west southwest of Mangalore (India), 1350 km east southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen), and 1450 km southeast of Salalah, Oman. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move west northwestward towards the Gulf of Aden during the next 72 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization of the system. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 8.5N to 15.0N and 59.0N to 65.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -78C.

3 minutes sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more the 1. as per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence has increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is negative (5 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of system.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
8:30 AM IST November 7 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over southeast Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards during past 15 hours and lies over central parts of south and adjoining central Arabian sea near 11.5N 63.5E, or about 1250 km west-southwest of Mangalore (India), 1050 km east-southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 1200 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move initially west northwestwards and then northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 48 hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates gradual increase in convection and organization. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 10.0N to 18.0N and 56.0N to 64.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -86C

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 4 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during next 2-3 days and then move to phase 5 and 6. While phase 4 is favorable, phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for cyclogenis and intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-30C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 hPA level and upper level divergence have increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate (10-20 knots). There is negative (5-10 knots) 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which runs along 16.0N.

Track for ARB03

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST November 7 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, A Low Pressure (1004 hPa) located at 14.0N 111.0E is reported as moving north northwest slowly

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
17:30 PM IST November 7 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression ARB03-2011 over south and adjoining central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 13.5N 60.5E, pr about 1550 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 700 km east-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 700 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and move initially west-northwestwards and then northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 72 hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates no significant change in convection and organization. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 13.0N to 19.0N and 55.6E to 64.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -79C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5 with amplitude more than 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during the next 2-3 days and then move to phase 6. The phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 28-29C. The ocean heat content is less (60-80 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence have not changed during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is moderate. There is no significant 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 16.0N.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST November 7 2011
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.0N 111.0E is reported as moving north northwest slowly

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST November 8 2011
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST November 8 2011
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 109.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 41.4N 5.4E, or 178 km south of Marseille (France), 260 km west of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 40 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

The Satellite Analysis Branch upgraded the depression over the western Mediterranean to "Tropical System 01M", as convection persisted for an adequate time atop the center. Since then, deep convection weakened somewhat with warming cloud tops next to the center. Nevertheless, very good banding is now present in all quadrants with good outflow atop.

http://www.estofex.org (Unoffficial) European Storm Forecast Experiment

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB03-2011
8:30 AM IST November 8 2011
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central Arabian Sea Arabian Sea moved westwards and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB03-2011 lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 13.5N 60.0E, about 1600 km west-northwest of Mangalore (India), 650 km east-northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 750 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).

The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and move west-northwestwards initially and then westwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 72 hrs.

Satellite imagery indicates vortex over south central Arabian Sea, Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Center not clear on infrared imagery. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Arabian Sea between 10.0N to 18.0N and 56.5E to 60.5E. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded isolated moderate to intense convection over Arabian Sea between 11.0N to 20.5N and 55.5E to 63.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature -81C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. Socotra Island reported sea level pressure of 1014 hPa.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5 with amplitude more that 1. As per the dynamical and statistical models, it would lie over the same phase during next 2-3 days and then move to phase 6. The phase 5 and 6 are not favorable for intensification over the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature is 27-28C. The ocean heat content is less (<50 kj/cm2). The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence has increased during past 24 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is favorable as it is low to moderate. There is no significant 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear around the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs 17.0N. Most of the models show intensification during next 24 hours and then gradual weakening after 48 hours. These models suggest initial west northwest/northwestward movement during next 48 hours and then southwestward movement towards Gulf of Aden

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

9 HRS: 14.0N 59.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS: 14.3N 58.5E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
27 HRS: 14.5N 57.8E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
51 HRS: 15.5N 55.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm (1000 hPa) located at 41.5N 5.8E, or 200 km southeast of Marseille (France), 233 km west of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 40 knots. The storm is reported moving east at 3 knots.

The center of the cyclone again became better organized with the strongest convection now in the southern and eastern part (maybe enhanced by the jet streak, which passes by to the southeast). Some slow movement to the east occurred but despite a further consolidating cyclone, latest reports do not indicate any strengthening

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST November 8 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm (1003 hPa) located at 42.5N 6.2E, or 156 km southeast of Marseille (France), 210 km west of Ajaccio (Corisa) has sustained winds of 40 knots. The storm is reported moving east northeast at 5 knots.

The new update of SAB now indicates some weakening, as deep convection failed to re-develop mainly in the western part. Water vapor imagery also indicates some dry air intrusion from higher levels, which gradually raises concern about how pronounced the warm core structure is right now. However, intense DMC evolved in the last hour or so mainly in the eastern/northern part and starts to wrap around the center. UW CIMMS also hints on somewhat augmented shear, which should remain steady during the next few hours. The cyclone now starts to increase its forward speed and moves more to the east northeast to northeast. This may be the result of an upper wave, which passes by to the west. Models want to stall this feature just SW of Liguria as the upper waves moves off to the north later tonight. The risk for strong downpours and gusty winds may increases over far SE France and probably along the West Ligurian coast during the following hours.