Sea of Cortez Weather 05/26/11
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After the Sonrisa Weather it’s back to work.
This summary and the daily postings are now posted on the Sonrisanet webpage usually by 8:30 MDT daily.
The following is from my daily ham radio Report
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Voice to Text---
.Looking down into the Sea this morning I can see that the southern tip has had those whispys passing over for the past 24 hours. The rest of the Sea is pretty much clouds free.
Looking out into the Pacific it looks like that band of whispys appears to be dissipating and there is not much following up from the ITCZ so it looks like the cape area will be seeing mostly sunshine today along with the rest of Baja.
Looking south along the Mexican Riviera where I can see lots of debris clouds moving off of building convection along the ITCZ and drifting toward the Riviera this morning mainly between Manzanillo and Zihuatanejo.
A bit further south, just south of Acapulco I can see a big honk’n thunderbumper building along the coast. This is a big storm. It would cover the borders if placed on top of Guatemala. There is another thumper working on the southern lip of the Gulf of Tehuantepec but not nearly as large.
The winds in the Gulf are forecast to be very moderate over the next three days. It’s those thumpers that will get you in trouble there.
Looking now at the ITCZ where there is considerable thunderbumper activity along the zone this morning out to about 130.
From NOAA’s Climate Control Center and the National Hurricane Center we have the first forecast of the 2011 Eastern Pacific Basin hurricane season.
The report goes on for many pages and discusses the many many factors involved in the forecast including NOAA’s ENSO forecast models that indicates that ENSO-Neutral conditions are likely during the peak months of the 2011 eastern Pacific hurricane season.
ENSO is an acronym for Eastern El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation.
. I noted that there no less than five PhDs listed in the credits. With all this brain power and a number of gazillion Dollar computers this is their forecast for the 2011 hurricane season.
“In the report we estimate a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above normal season.”
“Climate patterns similar to those expected this year have historically produced a wide range of activity. Allowing for uncertainties, we estimate a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
• 9-15 named storms,
• 5-8 hurricanes,
• 1-3 major hurricanes”
This hurricane report for the Eastern Pacific Basin is the first & favored horse out of the gate and in the coming weeks there will be a number of ‘Met’ Schools as well as amateur forecasters that will be reviewing this data and putting enough of their slant on it to publish in their blogs and websites.
All this being said you have to consider that Mother Nature may not read this report. So……….We’ll see?
I’ve also posted his report on the Tropical Page of the Sonrisanet website, sonrisanet.org
That’s it for our hood so looking now north now to the west coast of America where the west coast from Eureka north will be getting wet today. The Pacific Northwest will be wet the entire Memorial Day weekend.
California is forecast to remain dry over the weekend. The low and associated cold front moving through with Great Northwest today will be causing a gradient between northern Nevada and southern California so windy conditions are in the forecast for southern California. Small craft advisories are on tap to be posted today and tomorrow. May Grey will permeate southern California during the holiday weekend.
Looking now over to the southwest where above normal temperatures are expected through Saturday as high pressure aloft builds across the region. That low currently bringing rain to Seattle will arrive in the Great Basin over the holiday weekend and give cause to windy conditions in the southwest. The high there will dip a little and it will be cooler on Memorial Day followed by the return of the high pressure and a warming trend through the middle of next week.
That’s what’s going on to the north of the border. South of the border we will have a day much like the past week. Moderate northerlies today followed by brisk southerlies tomorrow and strong southerlies on Saturday.
This weekend we should also see both the pool temperature creep up a few degrees and see the 90s in the afternoons.
73s Y'all
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Don't chisel these forecasts in stone. This is an Amateur Endeavor.
………...DAILYS………...
ALL winds are in Knots.
NORTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Thursday, May 26, 2011
Baja Side : Afternoon Winds: ENE 9-12
CENTER : Afternoon Winds: WNW 10-13
Guaymas Side : Afternoon Winds: WNW 7-9
TOMORROW: Friday, May 27, 2011
Baja side : Afternoon Winds: ESE 15-19
Center : Afternoon Winds: NNW 6-8
Guaymas side : Afternoon Winds: SSE 9-11
.
SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Thursday, May 26, 2011
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: NNW 5-6
Center : Afternoon Winds: WNW 7-9
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: W 8-10
TOMORROW : Friday, May 27, 2011
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: SSE 6-7
Center : Afternoon Winds: S 9-11
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: SSW 8-10
.
….. 3 DAY FORECAST (OUTSIDE)…...
Ensenada
Thursday 5/26 Afternoon Winds: NW 13-17
Seas: Seas: WNW 6 feet at 7 sec.
Friday 5/27 Afternoon Winds: NW 13-17
Seas: Seas: WNW 8 feet at 11 sec.
Saturday 5/28 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-16
Seas: Seas: WNW 10 feet at 9 sec.
Point San Quintin
Thursday 5/26 Afternoon Winds: NW 25-33
Seas: Seas: NW 9 feet at 7 sec.
Friday 5/27 Afternoon Winds: NW 23-30
Seas: Seas: WNW 11 feet at 9 sec.
Saturday 5/28 Afternoon Winds: NW 26-34
Seas: Seas: WNW 12 feet at 10 sec.
Turtle Bay
Thursday 5/26 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-20
Seas: Seas: WNW 6 feet at 7 sec.
Friday 5/27 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-20
Seas: Seas: WNW 7 feet at 8 sec.
Saturday 5/28 Afternoon Winds: WNW 18-24
Seas: Seas: WNW 9 feet at 9 sec.
Cedros Island
Thursday 5/26 Afternoon Winds: NW 19-25
Seas: Seas: NW 5 feet at 7 sec.
Friday 5/27 Afternoon Winds: NW 18-23
Seas: Seas: NW 6 feet at 8 sec.
Saturday 5/28 Afternoon Winds: WNW 21-27
Seas: Seas: WNW 7 feet at 10 sec.
ABREOJOS
Thursday 5/26 Afternoon Winds: WNW 19-25
Seas: Seas: W 5 feet at 12 sec.
Friday 5/27 Afternoon Winds: WNW 21-28
Seas: Seas: SW 6 feet at 17 sec.
Saturday 5/28 Afternoon Winds: WNW 21-28
Seas: Seas: WNW 8 feet at 11 sec.
Mag Bay
Thursday 5/26 Afternoon Winds: WNW 14-18
Seas: Seas: WNW 6 feet at 12 sec.
Friday 5/27 Afternoon Winds: WNW 16-21
Seas: Seas: SW 7 feet at 17 sec.
Saturday 5/28 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-20
Seas: Seas: WNW 7 feet at 11 sec.
*CABO FALSO (Pedregal)
Today's Sunrise Temp.: 78 °
high Daily High Temperature: 38%
rain Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
bae Sunrise Bar: 1010
Thursday 5/26 Morning Winds: WNW 8 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: WNW 11-14
Seas: Seas: WNW 5 feet at 13 sec.
Friday 5/27 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: Seas: SW 5 feet at 17 sec.
Saturday 5/28 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-19
Seas: Seas: SW 6 feet at 15 sec.
. SEA OF CORTEZ
* indicates WeatherUnderground Station
Legend: oc-Over Cast r-Rain t-Thunderstorm f-Fog
*Puerto Penasco Casa Weez:
Morning Winds: WSW 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 59 °
Daily High Temperature: 85 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: ☺
Sunrise Bar: 1010
*Bahia Kino Nuevo :
Morning Winds: SW 3 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSW 3-3
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
#VALUE!
*San Filepe:
Morning Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 12-16
Sunrise Temp.: 63 °
Daily High Temperature: 90 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1008
*Gonzoga Bay Pappa Fernandez Landing. :
Morning Winds: ENE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 14-18
Sunrise Temp.: 70 °
Daily High Temperature: 81 °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1012
*Bay of LA. :
Morning Winds: ENE 2 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 68 °
Daily High Temperature: 76 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1010
San Franciscito Bay :
Morning Winds: SSE 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 6-8
Santa Rosalia :
Morning Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 9-11
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
#VALUE!
*Mulegé :
Morning Winds: N 7 to 9 knots
Morning Winds: N 7 to 9 knots
Sunrise Temp.: 66 °
Daily High Temperature: 98 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1012
*San Carlos
Morning Winds: WNW 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 9-11
Sunrise Temp.: 70 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1008
Pt Concepcion :
Morning Winds: ENE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 15-19
Punta Chivato :
Morning Winds: N 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 12-15
*El Burro Cove in Concepcion Bay
Morning Winds Winds: N 7 to 9 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: 69 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1010
Sunrise Sea Temperature: 77
Loreto :
Morning Winds: NNE 6 to 9 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 8-10
Sunrise Temp.: 68 °
Daily High Temperature: 83 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1010
San Lorenzo Channel :
Morning Winds: ESE 1 to 1 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSW 4-5
La Paz:
Morning Winds: WSW 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: NW 4-5
Sunrise Temp.: 61 °
Daily High Temperature: 96 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1010
*La Ventana Baja Joe's :
Morning Winds: WNW 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNW 5-6
Sunrise Temp.: 73 °
Daily High Temperature: 84 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1008
*Los Barriles :
Morning Winds: N 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 6-7
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
#VALUE!
Cabo Pulmo :
Morning Winds: NE 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 5-6
Seas: S 2 feet at 12 sec.
*Cabo San Lucas :
Morning Winds: WNW 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: 69 °
Daily High Temperature: 88 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1010
MEXICAN RIVIERA
*Mazatlan,
Morning Winds: W 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 8-10
Sunrise Temp.: 71 °
Daily High Temperature: 82 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1008
*Puerta Vallarta:
Morning Winds: NNE 5 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: WNW 9-11
Sunrise Temp.: 78 °
Daily High Temperature: 87 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1012
Manzanillo :
Morning Winds: SSW 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: SW 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 75 °
Daily High Temperature: 90 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1012
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo :
Morning Winds: WSW 10 to 13 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 89 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0
Sunrise Bar: 1010
Cabo Corrienties :
Morning Winds: NNE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 7-9
Seas: SW 5 feet at 17 sec.
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