Invest 90L statement
2:30 EDT May 7, 2007.
Invest 90L continues to rapidly deepen and pull convection to the center, and is pulling away from the backdoor front stretching across the Atlantic. However, SSTs are only 22C or so below the storm (pushing it even for Epsilon of '05), and shear is between 20 and 40 knots over most of the storm. All models take it at least shallow warm-core, with several going deep, and the trend is certainly in that direction regardless of the conditions around it. Uncertain though the situation is, I have a forecast to make, and here it is - I expect at least a Subtropical Storm out of 90L, but a short-lived one. 90L should continue to develop central convection and reach STS or TS status tomorrow sometime, losing a little bit of strength from loss of baroclinic fuel, with a max intensity of perhaps 65mph. 90L will make landfall on the Florida coast near Jacksonville quite soon afterward, and dissipate over land, with the remnant reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Regeneration is extremely unlikely.