Climate Change

July 2012 v. July 2011: A Comparison for the Lower Lakes Region
Posted by: ClimateChange, 03:24 PM GMT del 31 Luglio 2012 +2
July 2011 was a very hot month for much of the country, including the lower Great Lakes region. Many cities with long climate records experienced a top five hottest July in 2011. And the same can be said for this month. Below is a listing of the top three hottest Julys for several cities in the region. Note that both 2012 and 2011 are present in many of the lists. Other historically warm Julys which show up on a lot of the lists, include 1955 & 1921. The Dust Bowl era Julys of 1934 & 1936 were also very hot, especially in western parts of the region and out into the Central Plains.

Columbus

1. 80.6, 2012
2. 80.2, 2011, 1999, & 1934

Cleveland

1. 79.1, 1955
2. 78.0, 2012
3. 77.8, 2011 & 1949

Detroit

1. 79.3, 2011
2. 79.0, 2012, 1955 & 1921

Toledo

1. 79.0, 1921
2. 78.8, 2011
3. 78.6, 1916
...
T5. 77.8, 2012

Indianapolis

1. 84.0, 2012
2. 82.8, 1936
3. 82.0, 2011

Fort Wayne

1. 79.6, 2011
2. 79.5, 2012, 1955 & 1921

South Bend

1. 80.0, 1921
2. 79.5, 2012
3. 78.8, 1934 & 1916

Chicago

1. 81.3, 1955
2. 81.2, 1921
3. 81.1, 2012
4. 79.0, 2011

Rockford

1. 80.8, 2012
2. 80.3, 1921
3. 80.0, 1936

Milwaukee

1. 79.1, 1921
2. 78.8, 2012
3. 76.3, 1955
4. 76.2, 2011

Madison

1. 80.3, 1901
2. 79.5, 2012
3. 79.3, 1936

Buffalo

1. 76.2, 1921
2. 76.0, 1955
3. 75.4, 2012
4. 75.3, 2011
Updated: 12:58 AM GMT del 02 Agosto 2012   Permalink | A A A
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July Temperature Records
Posted by: ClimateChange, 12:04 AM GMT del 25 Luglio 2012 +1
July has been a very hot month for much of the Midwest. Below is a look at some of the numbers for various locales in northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

The figure below for July 2012 represents the projected final value for the monthly mean temperature. In computing the projection, I used the month-to-date temperature with the Best Forecast values for the various airport sites through the 31st. For the sake of comparison, I've included the month-to-date temperature in parentheses. I've also emboldened the values for July 2011 and July 2012, to give a better idea at how hot these last two Julys have really been!

Cleveland (KCLE)

1. 79.1 1955
2. 78.2 2012 (78.6)
3. 77.6 2011
3. 77.6 1949
5. 76.8 1921

Akron/Canton (KCAK)

1. 78.0 1931
2. 77.8 1921
3. 77.5 2012 (78.1)
3. 77.5 1916
5. 77.2 1887
6. 76.8 2011

Toledo (KTOL)

1. 79.0 1921
2. 78.8 2011
3. 78.6 1916
4. 78.3 1955
5. 78.2 2012 (78.7)

Mansfield (KMFD)

1. 77.0 2012 (77.3)
1. 77.0 1934
3. 76.8 1921
4. 76.7 1955
5. 76.5 2011

As you can see above, the projected value for 2012 is the second highest of record at CLE, third highest of record at CAK, fifth highest of record at TOL, and highest of record at MFD. July 2011 was also among the five warmest of record for all of those sites.
Categories:hot heat wave July Midwest Record High temperatures Climate Change Global Warming Drought Extreme heat
Updated: 12:06 AM GMT del 25 Luglio 2012   Permalink | A A A
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How hot has it been in Indy in 2012?
Posted by: ClimateChange, 08:34 PM GMT del 16 Luglio 2012 +0
Continuing with the theme yesterday, I decided to take a look at one more Midwestern city -- Indianapolis, home of the annual Indy 500 and the 2012 Super Bowl. Today, I am comparing the mean temperatures at Indianapolis to the 1961-1990 normals for Tulsa, Oklahoma. Tulsa is some 591 miles southwest of Indianapolis as the crow flies, or about 636 miles via highway travel. Remarkably, Indianapolis has seen temperatures this year very similar to those of late 20th Century Tulsa!

Like the comparisons yesterday, I've limited the analysis to major metropolitan areas with busy airports. This is designed to limit the effects of urban heat island contamination. An even starker comparison could have been made by looking at outlying, more rural areas such as Bartlesville, OK.

The 1961-1990 normals for Indianapolis and Tulsa can be found at the links below. The temperatures for Indianapolis in 2012 come from the NWS. Note that for the average mean temperature for the July 1 through July 15 period, I simply used the means for the entire month. Typically, the second half of July is slightly warmer, but only about a tenth or two-tenths of a degree. This would have the effect of actually lowering the means reported below slightly, but the effect is minimal, and I corrected it to represent 15 days worth of data, rather than the full 31 days.

Tulsa: Link

Indianapolis: Link

The average mean temperature for Tulsa for the period January 1 through July 15, based on 1961-1990 data was 57.9F. The average mean temperature for Indianapolis over that same period was 49.4F.

In 2012, the mean temperature for Indianapolis has been an incredible 56.7F. This is a remarkable 7.3F higher than the 1961-1990 normal and just 1.2F below the 1961-1990 normal for Tulsa! With more heat forecast through July and possibly into August, it is possible that at some point the year-to-date mean at Indy could even exceed the 1961-1990 year-to-date mean for Tulsa.

And again I don't mean to imply that this is entirely due to climate change or that it's the "new normal." Nevertheless, the warming of the climate system has certainly made these types of anomalies more likely in recent years. And it's unlikely that we will EVER see a period where the first half of the year at Indy averages 7.3F BELOW the 1961-1990 norm for the city airport. These temperatures, however, will become more prevalent in the coming decades and may sometime, not so far off in the future, come to be considered rather normal...

Note: This will be my last blog for a while, as I'm going to be busy in the coming days. I'll probably post an update featuring some hot July statistics from the midwest towards the end of the month or in early August.
Updated: 08:42 PM GMT del 16 Luglio 2012   Permalink | A A A
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Just how hot has it been in 2012? Answer: Very. Part Deux.
Posted by: ClimateChange, 12:23 AM GMT del 16 Luglio 2012 +4
As I mentioned in the earlier blog, I wanted to make a blog discussing some of the current weather anomalies with a focus on the changing environment. Obviously, I don't purport to blame all of the current warming on climate change. The anomalies we have been observing are inextricably linked to weather patterns.

Nevertheless, I feel it prudent to discuss these anomalies in the context of climate change. After all, future climate projections often focus on how the past climate in one location might compare to a future climate warmed by an enhanced greenhouse effect. I'm sure many of you have seen maps that shift one state hundreds of miles to the south to illustrate the changes. I've seen persons skeptical of anthropogenic climate change dismiss these maps as pure fiction. It seems unfathomable to think that Chicago would see a summertime climate similar to 20th Century Memphis, Tennessee by 2050 and even hotter by 2100, as the following images from the United States EPA illustrate.



Again, these images are only for summertime temperatures. Because there is less variation from north to south during the summertime even a small temperature increase can have a significant shifting effect.

In light of the current temperature extremes, I decided to see how 2012 is stacking up. My analysis includes data from January 1 through July 15, so roughly the first half of the year. Temperatures for the year have averaged some 4 to 6 degrees above the 1981 to 2010 climatological normals for much of the Midwest, as shown in the figure below. Please note that this is a dynamic image, so the image will change with time.



So what does 4 to 6 degrees look like? We know it's been hot. Very hot, indeed. But what does 4 to 6 degrees really mean to the average person? To look at this, I decided to make a comparison. This comparison will show how the temperatures observed at Chicago O'Hare International Airport and Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport this year stack up against the 1961-1990 climatological normals for Lambert Field in St. Louis and Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. To make the comparison fair, I've only selected large metropolitan areas with similar urban heat island effects. In addition, I've used the 1961-1990 normals, as recent normals have already crept up somewhat in response to the changing climate. 1961-1990 normals for these locations can be found at the following links:

Detroit Link

Chicago Link

St. Louis Link

Unfortunately, I could not find a link from the Western Regional Climate Center for Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky 1961-1990 climatological normals. However, I was able to find them by looking at past LCDs from the National Weather Service.

Because of the volume of numbers, I've decided to break this down into two additional posts. In later posts, I will do a month-by-month analysis of the figures. But for now I'll just briefly state the results of the comparison.

I found that the mean temperature in Detroit for the period January 1 through July 15 has been 52.7F. The 1961-1990 normal for that period was 45.4F. The corresponding normal for Greater Cincinnati over that interval was 50.7F. In other words, temperatures this year have average 7.3F above the 1961-1990 normal and 2.0F above 1961-1990 normal for Greater Cincinnati! In fact, every month but one this year in Detroit was warmer than what was considered normal in late 20th Century Greater Cincinnati. The weather in extreme Southeast Michigan this year has resembled more closely the climate of late 20th Century northern and central Kentucky than that of its own climes.

In Chicago, the period January 1 through July 15 this year has averaged 53.9F. The 1961-1990 normal for that period was 45.8F. In St. Louis, the 1961-1990 normal over that interval was 53.6F. The temperatures in Chicago this year have run 8.1F above the 1961-1990 normals for the city, and 0.3F above the corresponding figures for the city known as the Gateway to the West. Suffice it to say, the Chicagoland region has more closely resembled the climate of late 20th Century metropolitan St. Louis than its own climes.
Categories:Weather Midwest Climate Change Heat Wave Detroit Chicago United States 2012
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Just how hot has it been in 2012? Answer: Very.
Posted by: ClimateChange, 08:28 PM GMT del 15 Luglio 2012 +1
Since I was a little, I've been intrigued and fascinated by the weather. It's always been a major hobby of mine. Obviously, weather and climate are inextricably linked to one another. One thing I noticed in my observations of the daily weather was a general increase in temperatures and precipitation with time. I know skeptics would dismiss this as urban heat contamination, but the reality is these statistics came from an airport in a largely rural-suburban environment in a declining Rust Belt economy. There were no large-scale changes in land use to account for the changes. Moreover, the changes were being observed elsewhere.

Now, I had heard rumblings of climate change in the 90s and early 2000s, but I had largely dismissed them as something far off in the future. Around 2005, I decided to take a closer look at the evidence for myself. What I found convinced me that the climate had already changed considerably from the 1800s and early 20th Century. These changes are not only evident in the temperature records, but also in changes in phenology, snow and ice hydrology, and other physical records. Recognizing the physical properties of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases, I became satisfied that human activity was, in fact, greatly affecting the earth's climate. Obviously, I chose the handle "ClimateChange" because of my interest in this topic. I am, however, cognizant of the fact that not all subscribe to this theory.

This blog will be a place to discuss the changes in climate that have been observed heretofore, and those changes that are yet to come. All are welcome to participate, including those who are not convinced that the climate is changing, or that humans are playing a role in those changes. Personal attacks or nonconstructive comments, however, will be ignored. Users posting such will likewise be banned.

Note: This will be a two-part blog. As I have other business to attend, the second part will probably be updated later tonight or sometime tomorrow. Depending on the response, this could become a semi-regular blog.

The second part of the blog will discuss some of the astounding records set here in the Midwestern United States during 2012. I recognize that large-scale weather patterns have played a significant role in these conditions. But still part of me wonders if the odd weather isn't a signal that perhaps the climate is changing even faster than thought...
Categories:Climate Change Weather Heat Wave 2012 Detroit Chicago Midwest United States
Updated: 08:31 PM GMT del 15 Luglio 2012   Permalink | A A A
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