Tropical disturbance forms near Florida; 90E becomes better organized
An area of disturbed weather has formed over southern Florida and northwestern Bahamas. The disturbance is currently producing shower and thunderstorm activity to these areas. Additionally, this system is producing gale force winds. In fact, Fowey Rocks in Florida reported wind gust to 62 mph earlier today, and southern parts of Florida also received wind gusts to 40 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that the disturbance’s cloud pattern appears relatively impressive with deep convection; however, the convection has diminished slightly over the past several hours.
Forecast for tropical disturbance
Although the system is in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, light to moderate wind shear, and moist environment, it has unusually high surface pressures. Furthermore, none of the models develop this system into a tropical cyclone. Thus, development is unlikely at this time. Regardless of development, the tropical disturbance is forecasted to continue bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of southern and central Florida and northwestern Bahamas during the next 24 hours or so. By 48 hours, the heavy rain and gusty winds are expected to spread to northern Florida and northeastern Gulf of Mexico as the disturbance moves northwestward by the southwestern edge of the high pressure ridge. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of the tropical disturbance. Image credit: Mauna Kea Weather Center imagery.
90E becomes better organized
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, Invest 90E continues to become better organized as the shower and thunderstorm activity persists on satellite images. This system is located roughly 725 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico as the disturbance is moving west-northwestward at 10 – 15 mph. Further development of this tropical disturbance is expected. 90E is situated in favorable atmospheric conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28°C, low wind shear at 5 – 10 knots, and moist environment. The NHC is giving 90E an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Forecast for 90E
The SHIPS model is forecasting conditions to remain favorable for the next four to five days. In fact, most models anticipate 90E to become a tropical storm. I expect 90E to organize and strengthen over the next several days and become a strong tropical storm. After five days, however, the system is forecasted to enter into unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C and drier air. These conditions should weaken the system gradually. 90E is predicted to move west-northwestward over the next five days by the building high pressure ridge. Many models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. 90E is not expected to be a threat to any land areas. However, the system might affect Hawaii by the middle of next week by bringing little increase in shower activity.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is anticipated during the next two days.