Invest 93E a threat to become a tropical cyclone in the Pacific
In the eastern Pacific, there is a tropical disturbance that would possibly become the next tropical cyclone in the East Pacific basin. Just earlier, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated this disturbance as Invest 93E. The disturbance is situated several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Recent satellite image depicts that 93E is gradually becoming better organized with increased organization of showers and thunderstorms. Furthermore, scatterometer data indicates that the system has a broad surface circulation.
Forecast for Invest 93E
93E is predicted to move west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph over the next several days as both the high pressure ridge over Mexico and the larger high pressure ridge over the North Pacific Ocean would keep the disturbance in a west-northwestward path and prevent it from threating any land. Global models anticipate 93E to move west-northwestward over the next several days. 93E has a good chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next coming days as the environmental conditions appears to support further development of the disturbance. 93E is in a region of warm sea surface temperatures with 29° C, moderate wind shear with 10 – 15 knots, and in a moist environment. The SHIPS model forecasts 93E to remain in a favorable environment during the next five days. The system could go through a rapid intensification. In fact, many intensity models forecast this disturbance to become a hurricane by the next 2 – 3 days. The NHC is giving 93E a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours; however, I believe the odds should be 60%.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Invest 93E.
The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet for now; however, global models are predicting that a weak tropical storm may develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the next eight to ten days. The system is forecasted to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico, and it might have an opportunity to strengthen and organize. It is also forecasted to affect the Yucatan peninsula, northwestern Cuba, and southeastern United States. While this could occur in many days away, there will be more information on the forecast and have more accurate prediction.
Hurricane season has already begun, and if you don’t have hurricane preparedness kit yet, now is the time to get it.