Hurricane Daniel Weaker, Hurricane Emilia Stronger
Good evening, y'all! Here's another blog entry from me on the tropics.
As I mentioned it this morning, nothing too much going on in Atlantic. None of the models are suggesting anything interesting for the next few days, but it's no surprise as this is typical for July. This does not mean that the tropics will be like this for the rest of the year so you might want to enjoy the quietness while it lasts.
Currently, there is two hurricanes ongoing in Pacific with more tropical systems upcoming behind Emilia. The first tropical wave behind Emilia got 30% of forming into a tropical system, although I think it's more of 20% because it's getting sheared by Emilia's outflow. The point is that Pacific will continues to be active for the upcoming week with no end in sight.
I'll have to admit, Hurricane Daniel continues to impress me because it's still a Category 1 hurricane as of 11 PM EST update from NHC. However, I do not expect Daniel to lives much longer as he continues to enter even drier air and cooler water. NHC is giving Daniel 72 more hours to survives as it passes to south of Hawaii before finally dying out.
MAJOR HURRICANE EMILIA
Emilia is now a major hurricane with the wind speed of 120 MPH and pressure of 959 mb as of 11 PM EST, although I disagree. I think Emilia is currently 130 MPH Category 4 currently, as she continues to strengthen. As of 11:30 EST, Dvorak numbers for Emilia is:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.6mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2
The Dvorak numbers would suggests the winds of 135 MPH inside Emilia. As for the future forecast, NHC is expecting Emilia to peaks at 140 MPH 12-24 hours from now. My forecast is for Emilia to peaks at 145 24 hours from now, before she slowly loses the strength. You can see my graphic here, with the help of WU Hurricane Tracking Map.
I do agree with NHC on Emilia's path for the next 120 hours. I'm just little surprised how NHC kept Emilia 10-20 MPH lower than what she looked like all day long. I'll give you another update tomorrow night on Emilia :) Good night, folks.