May 31 Severe Weather Outbreak...

By: Zachary Labe , 11:45 PM GMT del 28 Maggio 2008

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"Thoughts on Severe Weather Outbreak of May 30-May 31"
Good Friday evening on this beautiful day for the end of the work week!!! I hope everyone soaked up the sun and nice weather today because that will not be the case tomorrow. Tomorrow in the infamous May 31. May 31 is a special weather day in Pennsylvania when our worst natural disasters have occured. The Johnstown Flood of 1889, tornado outbreak of 1985, and the tornado outbreak of 1999 all occured on May 31. So yet again another significant severe weather outbreak. Will it be up to the standards on the listed above outbreak? No, most likely this will not go down as a historic outbreak. But none the less by the end of this year it may be one of the major severe weather outbreaks to occur in Pennsylvania and the northeast including Middle Atlantic. So below in the following discussion will be details about all aspects of the storm. Please post observations tomorrow from all across the northeast even before the thunderstorms even develop. Also tomorrow I do not plan to post every warning posted as this clogs up the blog comments. But I will say which county is under which warning. And tornado warnings I will list the details. Also I would appreciate if others helped post radar images of the worst looking storms. Here is my thanks in advance. Now on to storm safety... Tomorrow is one of the days to really heed the warnings when they are issued. Supercellular thunderstorms may form in some areas and they could be quite dangerous capable of damage. Remember to follow the tornado safety guidlines. Also I would make sure your NOAA weather radios are turned on starting tonight and put them on the standby mode. I believe it is important to make people aware of the severe weather threats to help save lives and property. Overall just stay tuned to latest updates from your local media, NWS, and of course my blog lol. I will have no more storm discussions posted in the blog, but I will have short term updates posted in the form of comments. Stay tuned and have a wonderful Friday evening!!!

"Current Weather Setup"
Alright well we have quite a storm system on our hands. Usually in the current weather setup I detail the past history of this storm including earlier days of the severe weather outbreak. But instead since so many variables are coming together I felt it necessary to cover all of these factors that will lead up to the severe weather outbreak. Alright Friday storms are ongoing in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and moving into Ohio. A large complex of thunderstorms is beginning to form in Illinois and Indiana. This will develop into an organized MCS that will move into western Pennsylvania very early in the morning on Saturday during the predawn hours. CAPE values will still be near 500 j/kg so this will be enough to support some nocturnal thunderstorms that may be strong to severe in western Pennsylvania. Wind damage and an isolated tornado are the primary threats. Extreme lightning will also be a threat as MCS usually are associated with high density lightning. Flash flooding may be a threat in a few hours with the training thunderstorms. Elsewhere Friday night the low-level jet is increasing and turning southernly drawing up faster winds aloft and more low-level moisture. Precipitative water tables are increasing to near 1.2inch PWATS already in eastcentral Pennsylvania in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. By dawn the MCS complex will be weakening dramatically only now leaving behind rain and clouds. Low-level clouds may become quite thick in the northwest. The cold front by dawn will be in northwest Ohio and moving eastsoutheast. The warm front will lift northward through the Pennsylvania-New York Border and allow most of Pennsylvania to be in the warm-sector. Low-level winds remain moderate to strong throughout the day Saturday. Shear values also remain extremely high, especially over eastern Pennsylvania. Dewpoints will be on the rise all day long up into the 70s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Strong May sun inversion, strong winds aloft, and wind shear will rip apart the preceeding cloud cover in the morning allowing sun to filter out, especially across the east. High temperatures will be reaching into the low to mid 80s in the south and 70s elsewhere. Instibility will be on the rise throughout the afternoon. The cold front will move into western Pennsylvania by noon and develop a weak line of low-topped thunderstorms in the northwest and the southern part of the line will be associated with severe thunderstorms. Tornadoes are a slight threat in southwest Pennsylvania. Ahead of the weak to moderate squall the high instibility will kick off supercellular thunderstorms. With helocity values over 300 and EHI values from .5-1.5 rotation in the storms will become a possibility. Also the strong deep level shear and strong southernly jet of 50 knots will lead to rotation. The strong low level jet will lead to the damaging winds. And the low freezing levels ranging from 13000-11000ft will let supercells contain large hail cores capable of hail up to 1.5inches. Overall the highest threat for severe weather is in eastern Pennsylvania and I expect tomorrow for the storm prediction center in Norman, Oklahoma to issue a moderate risk. I believe the last time a moderate risk was issued for eastern Pennsylvania was on December 1, 2005 where tornadoes were reported in Luzerne, Westmoreland, and Dauphin Counties. Please tomorrow stay tuned for more updates as there is always a slight bust factor. I will have 12z storm soundings available tomorrow for all major airfields and I will post mesoanalysis reports from the SPC.

"Current Advisories"


"Current Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteorology.)

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Radar for Western Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Central Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Eastern Pennsylvania"


"Forecasts from Storm Prediction Center"
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGEST MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGIONS TODAY.
EARLY DAY CLOUDS/CONVECTION HAS HINDERED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF NY AND WRN/CENTRAL PA LATE THIS MORNING...BUT MODERATE
MLCAPE AXIS IS ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED NNEWD OUT OF CENTRAL VA
AT 16Z. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING/EXPANDING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST/REST OF VA AS HEATING AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OCCURS. STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING WHEN MOST STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING OFFSHORE. SHEAR PROFILES
AND LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION INTO LINES AND SUPERCELLS...PRODUCING A MYRIAD OF
SEVERE THREATS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES.

...NORTHEAST...
SEVERE THREAT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EWD
INTO THE WRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/STABILIZATION IN
PLACE LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP ASCENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZATION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS AND EVEN A FEW
SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE
STRONGER SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND. THEREFORE...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS OVER WRN NY AT 16Z AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE INDICATIVE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING FOR THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OVER VA/MID ATLANTIC.

"Tornado Risks"

"Hail Risks"

"Wind Risks"


"Model Analysis"
Ok here comes the time I take a look at the models and I pick out their possible flaws and discrepancies against each other. The NAM and GFS are pretty similar with each other and are quite impressive in terms of some indices. CAPE values look to get up into the 3000 j/kg range for southern Pennsylvania for the Lower Susquehanna Valley and southeast piedmont regions. In western Pennsylvania CAPE values also get up into the 3000 j/kg range for counties such as Greene and Washington. EHI indexes are impressive for southwestern Pennsylvania and the southeast piedmont where they range from 1-3 on the models. Something interesting also to note is that supercell potential in near 71% near Pittsburgh and near 75% for Philadelphia. Those are some impressive numbers usually found in places such as tornado alley. The SREF model though is a little more conservative in terms of CAPE and only shows values getting near 2000 j/kg as far north as Reading-Allentown, Pennsylvania line. But from past history I have found this model to be somewhat always conservative in CAPE values. Also the SREF model shows the corridor of highest threat for tornadoes to be in extreme eastern Pennsylvania, while the GFS and NAM show it in east central Pennsylvania. The NMM model is very odd for the 12z run and the simulated radar for Saturday shows little convection areas. I think the model is suffering from some convective feedback errors. Taking a look against models currently and the current surface map. Well it looks as if they have a good hold on the storm system, only difference I see is the storm may be traveling a little farther north than originally forecast. For tomorrow I will update again for 9z and 12z model runs. Below the following maps highlight the latest most important severe weather indices.

"15z SREF Model Forecast Max Cape Index"

(Saturday)

"15z SREF Model Forecast Lowest Cin Index"

(Saturday)

"12z GFS Model Forecast Max Helicity Values"

(Saturday)

"12z NAM Model Forecast Max Significant Tornado Parameter Index"

(Saturday)

"12z NAM Model Forecast Max Sweat index, helicity, and Cape Index"

(Saturday)

"12z NAM Model Forecast Min LI index"

(Saturday)

"12z NMM Model Forecast Simulated Future Radar"

(Saturday)

"My Forecast for Severe Weather"
Ok I just posted my final severe weather risk map for Saturday. I have two areas of concern. My main area of concern is in my high risk area for southeastern Pennsylvania. Yes I have a high risk, but it does not translate to the definition of a high risk from the SPC. I issued a high risk because Pennsylvanians have a limited history of severe weather and they are not accustomed to it. My high risk would translate to a official Storm Prediction Center moderate risk. I believe isolated tornadoes, damaging large hail, and destructive straight-line winds are the primary threats. Also I can rule out flash flooding as PWATs are becoming increasingly high and they are several deviations above normal. Supercells may be also found in my high risk and moderate risk for eastern Pennsylvania. For southwestern Pennsylvania I also have a moderate risk out for that region as I expect storms to be quite intense in that region as indices and past history prove that strong convection will form in that region. Shear values are also quite high in that region of Pennsylvania. Also EHI values are quite impressive too. Stay tuned for more updates from my forecast and I will be issued hourly updates when possible tomorrow until severe storms form. I will be happy to answer any questions also. And when severe storms I will be posting updates by the minute. So stay tuned!!!

"My Severe Weather Risk Map"


"Conclusions on Severe Weather Outbreak"
Again I do not expect a historic severe weather outbreak by any means, but none the less it looks like it will be sigificant. Last year was a pretty calm tornado year here in Pennsylvania, but yet a very significant severe weather year in terms of wind damage. Our June last year was one of the most stormy on record. For here in Pennsylvania many people are not accustomed to severe weather and many do not heed the warning of severe weather when statements are issued from the National Weather Service. This time though tomorrow will be very important to monitor statements. Saturday it appears that the only bust factor really is sunshine. This is typically a problem in forecasting severe weather in Pennsylvania. How fast we scower out cloud debris will determine alot about what will happen in the afternoon. And I do expect sunshine to peak for most areas by noon. Also even if for some reason the clouds hold strong, the dynamics are strong enough to produce severe weather and some thunderstorms, but it will not be as widespread as if there was sunshine to cause greater instibility. For those going out storm chasing tomorrow, snapping video, and taking pictures please be careful about going about throughout some of these storms. I expect one or two thunderstorm to have supercellular nature and be quite organized. Overall I am most worried for Lancaster County who is typically the county with most tornadoes recorded annually do the geography of the region and climate. Tornadoes will not be widespread tomorrow, only isolated at best. The worst of the tornadoes will be confined to Virginia and North Carolina. For Saturday stay tuned for many updates throughout the day. Have a great Friday evening and stay safe for Saturday!!!

"Storm Reports"


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 0
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 1
Tornado Watches- 0
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 10

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 3
Monthly Precipitation- 4.15inches
Yearly Precipitation- 17.81inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 0
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 0

A moderate risk of severe weather? (Blizzard92)
A moderate risk of severe weather?

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97. TheRasberryPatch
12:00 PM GMT del 03 Giugno 2008
I noticed the radar and what looks to be some thunder storms on the way for this afternoon depending on the speed of the front. I noticed back in the weekend they were calling for severe weather, but yesterday and today wunderground was calling for the severe weather tomorrow and not for today. hmmmmm.
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
96. Zachary Labe
10:21 AM GMT del 03 Giugno 2008
Severe Weather today, tonight, tomorrow. New blog coming later today.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
95. Zachary Labe
07:36 PM GMT del 02 Giugno 2008
This week is extremely busy for me. I might have a new blog out tomorrow afternoon that may contain the storm recap on the May 31 severe weather outbreak.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
94. ChrisCone
03:26 AM GMT del 01 Giugno 2008
just posted photos of my severe weather today on my blog. i have about 55 total but only 20 or so are uploaded. also caught a perfect twin rainbow, which i have only seen once before.
93. Zachary Labe
01:27 AM GMT del 01 Giugno 2008
So what happened today? Well that answer will be coming tomorrow. Long and sort of stressful weather day. Have a great evening!!!
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
92. cchamp6
01:15 AM GMT del 01 Giugno 2008
Blizz,

Check out Sullys blog. I posted some video and photos. The video of the hail was real dark due to storm. Play it till the end though.
Member Since: Dicembre 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1642
91. Zachary Labe
12:34 AM GMT del 01 Giugno 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
829 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

PAZ058-010100-
SCHUYLKILL-
829 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...

AT 821 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TAMAQUA TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHLAND...MOVING EAST AT
39 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ORWIGSBURG AROUND 835 PM...SCHUYLKILL HAVEN
AROUND 840 PM...DEER LAKE AROUND 845 PM AND AUBURN AROUND 850 PM.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
90. Zachary Labe
11:06 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
701 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

NJC027-037-041-PAC095-312315-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-080531T2315Z/
SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-
701 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON...MORRIS...WARREN AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX
COUNTIES...

AT 657 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VERNON VALLEY TO ANDOVER TO
CHAPMAN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PATERSON TO 32 MILES WEST OF PATERSON TO 10 MILES NORTH OF
BETHLEHEM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 44 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GREEN POND...PLEASANT VALLEY...HARMONY AND WILSON BY 710 PM EDT...
CHESTER...BUTLER...MOUNTAIN LAKES AND BOONTON BY 715 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4122 7442 4118 7438 4108 7449 4104 7449
4105 7447 4105 7444 4101 7439 4101 7435
4099 7429 4074 7436 4076 7485 4078 7489
4062 7519 4076 7545 4101 7483 4126 7450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 316DEG 38KT 4122 7439 4094 7474
4074 7539
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
89. TheRasberryPatch
11:00 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
after i thought about it with the barometer falling how could the cold front have passed already. thanks for the update.
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
88. Zachary Labe
10:26 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
TheRasberryPatch- This morning was the warm front. The cold front is holding steady in strength. We may have to deal with a few thunderstorms scattered about the region this evening. Confidence is low though, as I am not sure what is going to happen with the storms in the northwest. Interesting day and as usual a recap is coming along with my risk map against the actual storm reports and warnings that were posted throughout the event.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
87. TheRasberryPatch
10:24 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
so what do you forsee for our area for the rest of the evening, Blizz? has the cold front broken up or was that it that came through this am?
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
86. Zachary Labe
10:19 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC083-105-312245-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0018.080531T2214Z-080531T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
614 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MCKEAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CORYVILLE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF OLEAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 47
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SHINGLEHOUSE AROUND 625 PM EDT...
GENESEE AROUND 645 PM EDT...

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 4200 7775 4198 7774 4179 7842 4195 7851
4201 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 247DEG 41KT 4191 7835
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
85. Zachary Labe
10:11 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC103-312245-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0021.080531T2150Z-080531T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
550 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GREENTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PECKS POND BY 605 PM EDT...
DINGMANS FERRY AND BUSHKILL BY 620 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4114 7509 4115 7517 4125 7514 4124 7535
4133 7532 4134 7534 4137 7535 4136 7528
4138 7526 4125 7484 4122 7486 4120 7486
4110 7496 4108 7504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 295DEG 39KT 4130 7534
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
84. TheRasberryPatch
09:47 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
the sun is out competely
temp 75.2
dew pt 69.3
winds light SSW
barometer still falling

Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
83. cyclonebuster
09:43 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Cape verde season starts early another sign of mans influence on the weather.
Member Since: Gennaio 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20402
82. Zachary Labe
09:42 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY...NRN PA...NRN NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312134Z - 312200Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PART OF SRN NY/NRN PA INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.

REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM
INTENSITY WITH A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SWRN VT TO NERN PA.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
TO THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE NERN STATES. ALTHOUGH
AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT EWD THIS EVENING
ACROSS NERN PA/NRN NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
EXCEEDING 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH DEEP LAYER WLY
FLOW RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS WRN
NY INTO NWRN PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS NY/NRN PA TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND... WITH
SIMILAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 05/31/2008

Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
81. Zachary Labe
09:38 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC069-127-312230-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0019.080531T2130Z-080531T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
530 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LACKAWANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 527 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DICKSON CITY...MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ARCHBALD...MAYFIELD AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF CARBONDALE BY 535 PM
EDT...
MOUNT COBB BY 540 PM EDT...
TRESSLARVILLE AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF WAYMART BY 545 PM EDT...
LAKE ARIEL AND 8 MILES NORTH OF STERLING BY 550 PM EDT...
ARLINGTON BY 555 PM EDT...
HAWLEY BY 605 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
80. Zachary Labe
09:33 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC023-027-033-035-047-312230-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0017.080531T2126Z-080531T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN ELK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WEST CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTH CENTRAL CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
BROCKPORT...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUBOIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BROCKPORT AND TREASURE LAKE AROUND 530 PM EDT...
PENFIELD AROUND 540 PM EDT...
PARKER DAM STATE PARK AND FORCE AROUND 545 PM EDT...
MEDIX RUN AROUND 550 PM EDT...


THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 149 AND 169.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS! PUT YOUR AUTOMOBILES INTO A CARPORT OR GARAGE.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE
...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 4124 7792 4099 7801 4115 7880 4120 7878
4121 7872 4122 7872 4123 7875 4127 7875
4133 7888 4135 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 281DEG 39KT 4125 7880
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
79. Zachary Labe
09:24 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC069-079-127-131-312200-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0018.080531T2120Z-080531T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
520 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FALLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 41 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
OLD FORGE...PITTSTON...WEST PITTSTON AND EXETER BY 525 PM EDT...
MOOSIC...GLENDALE...AVOCA AND DUPONT BY 530 PM EDT...
MOSCOW BY 540 PM EDT...
GOULDSBORO BY 550 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4140 7599 4154 7585 4129 7536 4127 7534
4124 7535 4123 7549 4122 7552 4122 7555
4115 7561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 307DEG 36KT 4141 7582
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
78. Zachary Labe
09:09 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC123-312130-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0016.080531T2105Z-080531T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 459 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHAPMAN STATE PARK...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WARREN...AND MOVING EAST AT 54 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CHAPMAN STATE PARK AROUND 510 PM EDT...
WARREN AROUND 515 PM EDT...
SHEFFIELD AND KINZUA DAM AROUND 520 PM EDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 4185 7891 4184 7893 4183 7896 4163 7896
4162 7911 4162 7940 4178 7943 4191 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 262DEG 47KT 4170 7928
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
77. Zachary Labe
08:57 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC031-065-312145-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0014.080531T2054Z-080531T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
454 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL CLARION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOMINY RIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 48 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 4130 7894 4116 7902 4122 7929 4132 7924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 283DEG 41KT 4128 7914
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
76. Zachary Labe
08:50 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

PAZ009-015-312115-
CLARION PA-FOREST PA-
429 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SOUTHERN FOREST
AND NORTHERN CLARION COUNTIES...

AT 430 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 4 MILES WEST OF FRYBURG...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CLEAR FOREST COUNTY BY 400 PM AND CLARION COUNTY BY 410 PM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
COOK FOREST STATE PARK...FRYBURG...ARTHURS...BILLING AND CROWN

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
75. Zachary Labe
08:17 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
402 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

NYZ056-057-PAZ039-040-312045-
BROOME NY-DELAWARE NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WAYNE PA-
402 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BRACKNEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 39 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GREAT BEND AT 410 PM EDT...
NEW MILFORD AT 415 PM EDT...
SUSQUEHANNA AT 420 PM EDT...
HANCOCK AT 440 PM EDT...
EQUINUNK AT 445 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
74. Zachary Labe
08:08 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC121-312045-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0013.080531T2003Z-080531T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
403 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL VENANGO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
OIL CITY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SENECA AND OIL CITY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 4150 7954 4132 7962 4136 7989 4153 7981
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 289DEG 36KT 4142 7972
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
73. Zachary Labe
07:59 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Sun is out completely here and temperature has gone up 4degrees. Scattered convection is forming in western and central Pennsylvania. I am thinking this may organize a little further with some storms severe like the Crawford County storm.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
72. TheRasberryPatch
07:54 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
the sun is peaking through a bit and the temperature is now 71.4 with dewpt at 68.4.
winds light out of S
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
71. Zachary Labe
07:28 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC039-312000-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0036.080531T1920Z-080531T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 35
MILES WEST OF TITUSVILLE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MEADVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
70. cyclonebuster
07:22 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
I have determined the center is at 18N 87.7 W
Member Since: Gennaio 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20402
69. cchamp6
07:18 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
The sun is finally peeking now. It got up to 78 degrees earlier. Currently 74 degrees with a dewpoint of 65 degrees.
Member Since: Dicembre 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1642
68. TheRasberryPatch
07:05 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
still overcast here and the temperature has actually dropped to 69.7
winds light out of SW
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
67. Zachary Labe
05:49 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Sun is breaking out of central Pennsylvania. Here is a towercam showing signs of building cumulus near State College...

Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
66. TheRasberryPatch
05:40 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
overcast
71.4
dew pt 67.3
@ 140pm
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
65. Zachary Labe
04:03 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Clouds are beginning to thin across Pennsylvania. Everything so far today is going according to my forecast.

Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
64. Zachary Labe
03:54 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
TheRasberryPatch- The sun I can just barely see through the clouds. But if it can come out then it may get pretty bad. Surface CAPES are now up to 500 j/kg in our region.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
63. TheRasberryPatch
03:53 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
first round is over
0.14" of rain
temp 69.5
dew pt 67.7
winds SSW less than 10mph gusting to 12mph

if the sun comes out with this bit of moisture, are we in for it this afternoon. the atmosphere will be cooking. is that what that bit of moisture was all about, Blizz - to cook up the atmosphere?
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
62. Zachary Labe
02:25 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Tornado watch...


PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS
BUCKS CHESTER CUMBERLAND
DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE LANCASTER
LEHIGH MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA SOMERSET YORK

Storm Probabilities...
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (70%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)


Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
61. Zachary Labe
01:38 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Currently here north of Harrisburg...

69degree temperature
moderate rain with thunder
64degree dewpoint
.03inches of rain
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
60. cchamp6
01:22 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Current temp. is 71 degrees. We havent seen much sunshine yet. Dewpoint is steadily rising to near 60 degrees. If the sun pops I think the temp. is gonna jump up very quickly.
Member Since: Dicembre 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1642
59. JDinWPA
01:18 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Good morning Bliz. current stats - 64° and .1" of rain. Moderate wind is out of the WSW. We had some small breaks in the clouds about an hour ago but, since then, it has gotten a lot darker.
58. Zachary Labe
01:07 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WV...NRN VA...MD...SRN/ERN
PA...DC...DE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311254Z - 311430Z

SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING OVER
DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

INITIALLY WEAK MCS MOVING EWD FROM REMAINING PORTIONS WW 399 IS FCST
TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS DIVIDE REGION OF APPALACHIANS -- ON BOTH SIDE
OF SRN BORDER OF PA -- DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
RE-INTENSIFY AS ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR
ENCOUNTERS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
REGIONS. IN FACT...IR CLOUD TOPS APPEAR TO BE COOLING AGAIN AS OF
1245Z ATOP EXTREME WRN MD CONVECTION.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THREE FAIRLY DISTINCT MOIST AXES...ONE W OF
DIVIDE. THE OTHER TWO ARE EVIDENT W OF FALL LINE FROM LYH AREA NEWD
PAST FDK TO BETWEEN IPT-AVP...AND FROM NERN NC NWD ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY...THEN NEWD UP LOWER DE RIVER VALLEY.
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING STEADILY ACROSS VIRTUALLY ENTIRE
AREA E OF MOUNTAINS FROM ERN PA SWD...AMIDST PRONOUNCED MOIST
ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER ALOFT -- ADVECTING DOWNSHEAR FROM ONGOING
TSTM COMPLEX -- WILL IMPEDE DIABATIC SFC HEATING.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DIFFUSED BUT STEADY HEATING...AND LOW LEVEL
WAA...SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE SBCINH WHILE BOOSTING MLCAPE OVER 1000
J/KG. 12Z IAD RAOB ONLY REQUIRES SLGT MODIFICATION FROM HEATING TO
REMOVE SHALLOW/STABLE LAYER AND YIELD SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED
PARCEL. DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE -- 50-60 KT
ONCE SFC-BASED PARCELS ARE ACHIEVED.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
57. Zachary Labe
12:13 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
TheRasberryPatch- Good morning!!! Thanks for observation. Keep them coming. Everything is going according to plan so far. That is the MCS in western Pennsylvania and it is weakening. Later today it will be the trigger for more thunderstorms to form. Ones that will be severe.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
56. TheRasberryPatch
12:06 PM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
mostly overcast
temp 67 @ 8am
dew pt 65
winds are slight to calm out of the SSE

is this just one line coming through this morning with more to come this afternoon and evening?
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
55. Zachary Labe
11:57 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 399 CONTINUES.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMAGING WIND REPORTS IN
LICKING/MUSKINGUM COUNTIES OH BETWEEN 09-10Z IS LOCATED BETWEEN
ZZV-JST AS OF 1115Z...AND HAS SHOWN GEN DECREASE OF INTENSITY DURING
PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING ALONG N SIDE OF NARROW CORRIDOR
OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...AND WILL REMAIN IN
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...REMAINING
PORTIONS WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED WHERE CONVECTION PERSISTS.

MIDLEVEL RH PROGS AND CURRENT IR/MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE DRY SLOT ALOFT MOVING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/SRN OH DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ALSO IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E ACROSS SRN PA...TEMPORARILY INTERACTING WITH
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS IN MOUNTAINS BEFORE MOVING EWD OVER MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
THESE TRENDS INDICATE DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES FOR
ADDITIONAL/SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND PRIMARY
CLUSTER. ACCORDINGLY...PRIND REMAINING PORTIONS WW MAY BE CLEARED
FROM W-E AS MAIN MCS MOVES E OF AREA.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
54. Zachary Labe
11:54 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
cchamp6- Good morning!!! Yep this could be quite a day. A moderate risk for the megalopolis of the USA with threat of tornadoes.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
53. cchamp6
11:53 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Good morning Blizz,

Looks like things may get interesting around here today. My place seems to be in the bullseye for some damaging storms today. There arent too many times in a year that tornadoes are mentioned. I will be here on and off all day. Keep us updated.
Member Since: Dicembre 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1642
52. Zachary Labe
11:43 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
All I have to say is wow. EHI values predicted by the new 0z GFS are supposed to be 3 in southeastern Pennsylvnania.



EHI = 3.0 to 3.9: Strong mesocyclone-induced tornadoes (F2 and F3) possible.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
51. Zachary Labe
11:36 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
So here it begins...



PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER FAYETTE GREENE
INDIANA LAWRENCE WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
50. ChrisCone
06:27 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
i have noticed that alot about New England tv weather guys. But hey in terms of CT, we do have a good team Dr. Mel is excellent and Scot Haney is too. However, Mel tries to keep his forecasts conservetive to avoid the fudge factor. Scot actually mentioned once on the Friday Morning news that there was the risk of a "couple of funnel clouds" . According to NOAA, we now have a 10 %, or moderate risk of tornadoes in extreme western CT, 7 % which is still moderate in central, and 5 % which is slight risk in eastern ct. We are now in the general moderate risk area for severe weather
49. cchamp6
01:51 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
Blizz,

You know I was watching some local weather guys tonight and not one mentioned the possibility of severe weather tomorrow. I mean they did say we could get some strong storms, but they just dont alert people to the possibility of something big happening. They should not over hype something but they should put out there the possibility exsists for some real bad weather. Most people will have no idea what hits them when it does. I mean out west they expect it, but here its not a regular thing.
Member Since: Dicembre 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1642
48. Zachary Labe
01:35 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
ChrisCone- Yep that is a perfect looking supercell.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
47. Zachary Labe
01:25 AM GMT del 31 Maggio 2008
All sections have been finally updated!!!
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperatura: 24.2 °F
Punto di rugiada: 15.2 °F
Umidità: 68%
Vento: Calma - senza vento
Raffiche di vento: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST del 18 Gennaio 2014

About Personal Weather Stations