The Northeast Weather Blog...

Mid-late week snowstorm?
Posted by: Zachary Labe, 02:34 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011 +2
"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 11/29)
December is my favorite month of the year. Not only is it the start of the meteorological winter allowing my inner-weather nerdness to flourish, but it is also the beginning of the holiday shopping season. This beginning is certainly polarized as many people enjoy the season, while others cringe at the thought of the approaching stress. December is particularily a very busy and at times stressful month. Worries for holiday plans can cause family conflicts, financial worries, and a plethora of other problems. But the idea of the season shouldn't stem to a dislike. It is a season to enjoy the warmth inside one's home, and to celebrate surrounded by friends and family. It is the season where sparkling lights dot the dark horizon and soothing music echoes in our footstep. It should be a time for relaxation. But one look at the latest headlines the day after Black Friday shows it is anything but this soothing state. From shootings to pepper spray attacks, it is unfortunate to see this chaos for an xbox, etc. We all need to step back for a moment and reevaluate our priorities. Instead of trying to rush December, take a moment to enjoy the heightened spirit.

For now lets hope some wintry weather will come plunging across the east coast to enhance the spirit in the air.

Frusturation is beginning to grow for winter snow lovers as the pattern change continues to be delayed in the long range. The unfavorable Atlantic is continuing to allow the contiguous United States to be flowed with Pacific maritime air. The southeast ridge is also beginning to flex its muscle given a very typical moderate La Nina state. While it does appear December will not be anywhere close to those forecasts for bitter cold air and snow, the whole winter does not appear to be a lose. There are still signs winter will return with full avengeance. The pattern change date remains in question and continues to be pushed farther back. It is likely the winter will not round with averages with a sharply negative NAO like the previous few winters, but we are still in the general decadal negative NAO state. This winter will likely be a return to reality for most I-95 locations whom have been treated quite generously the past few winter seasons. I still believe snowfall will round the season with above normal totals for most locations, but the kickoff to this snowier regime may just be kicked back a tad.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Updated 11/29)
A cutoff low pressure aloft will continue to lift northeast across Ohio and the Great Lakes region while a strong cold front advances eastward. Increasing isentropic lift ahead of the front will allow for a large plume of stratiform rain to form in the very moist southerly flow. PWATs remain near +3SD allowing for periods of heavy rain. H85s will rise to near +10C ahead of the front for regions particularily near the coast allowing for well above normal temperatures; possibly into the lower 70s for the Delmarva and 60s elsewhere. QPF totals will generally range from 0.5-0.75in due to the quick movement of the band of rain. Colder air will wrap in behind the low pressure with H85s dropping below zero Tuesday night across Pennsylvania and western Maryland with surface temperatures falling below 50F. The rain will begin to taper off. The cold air may advance in quick enough for a few wet snowflakes across the mountains of northern Pennsylvania above 2000ft. No accumulation is expected through Wednesday night. The band of rain will lift through New England Tuesday night with similar QPF amounts. Temperatures will begin to fall behind the band across all locations as the front approaches.

A north-northwest flow will allow a few diurnal instability snow showers to occur late Wednesday, but high shear will limit an organized lake effect snow event. There is a slight potential for a few 1-3in amounts in isolated snow belt locations Wednesday night. Also behind the cutoff low, a moist northwest flow will allow for some upslope snow showers across western Pennsylvania and western Maryland. 1-4in of snow is possible from Garret County, MD up through the Laurel Highlands. A return to near normal temperatures is likely through Wednesday through Sunday with Saturday being the coldest day. High pressure will likely dominate the weather Thursday through Friday shutting off any lake effect snow activity. A weak shortwave will approach western New York Friday nght with light snow showers. The ECMWF prognostics are a bit more amplified showing the possibility for a coating to one inch of snow, but the GFS remains drier. In any case little to no accumulation is likely. Once again high pressure moves in towards the weekend.

Towards next week, a strong cold front will approach the region around Tuesday.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 11/29)
A strong cold front and associated cutoff low will continue to lift northeast across the Great Lakes. H85s will drop below 0C during the day Wednesday, but surface temperatures will generally remain above 36F. A north-northwest 310 degree flow will allow for a few instability snow showers off Lake Erie and Ontario for the Wednesday night into Thursday morning period, but unidirectional shear aloft will shred apart any organized streamer that tries to form. Lake effect activity will remain very disorganized. Temperature differentials will generally remain a marginal 8-10C limiting instability. Increasing upper level highs ahead of a high pressure will eliminate any activity by midday Thursday. A weak shortwave will approach the region towards late Friday night through Saturday, but QPF remains very light and generally less than .1in for all locations amounts limited to northern New England and western New York. Light snow showers are possible, but dry air should inhibit any snow accumulation. A 1032mb high pressure will move and center itself across central Pennsylvania with clear skies for the entire Northeast for the weekend. Little to no lake effect snow is expected over the next seven days.

"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Link to official river ice reports page from NWS... Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions... Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 11/29)
The global wavelength pattern has begun to shift slightly as a western ridge begins to flex itself allowing for a +PNA and -EPO. This will help to displace the Alaskan vortex slightly bringing a bit more cold air into the central and eastern United States. Current MJO forcing suggests entering waves 4-5 before beginning to wane through phases 6+. This will be a disaster for snowlovers as phases 4-5 are east coast ridging with phases 6+ favoring blocking and troughing. Given the raging +AO and +NAO, there has been little to no blocking across the northern Atlantic. Snow chances in a positive north atlantic oscillation state are reduced nearly by 50% or more especially for the Middle Atlantic. While not necessary to get a snowstorm in this region, it is very helpful. The southeast ridge will continue to be a noticeable presence during this two week period. While general wavelengths support a milder regime, several short and transient cold bursts are expected in the next two weeks. Any snow chances will be limited to the period around December 5-6 and/or December 12-14, but these chances remain very slim. Operational and ensemble models have hinted at these periods, but general support is very limited. Keep in mind the rare October snowstorm occured in a very unfavorable pattern period; all it takes is some luck in regards to timing with these short cold air masses. December 2011 could very well be similar to December 2006 in the snow and temperature department if we do not begin to see any MJO and blocking improvements. Approaching mid month, current ECMWF ensemble forecasts suggest a return to the dreaded +EPO with a mid month warm spell. The period 12/1 to 12/15 will end milder than normal for most locations, although not near as extreme as the late November period.


"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(December)(Updated 11/29)
Many winter forecasts made back in the mid fall analyzed December as being the coldest month of the winter for much of the east coast. But now given the state of many global teleconnections, it appears December will continue the string of above normal temperature months. The month will open with a raging +AO nearly at 3SD and may be approaching a high in the first two week period. Corresponding with a +NAO, there will be little to no blocking associated over the Northern Atlantic. While the Atlantic remains dreadful, the Pacific is a tad more favorable early month with a return to a -EPO and +PNA favoring a west coast ridge. The MJO has been one of the driving factors in current wavelengths with phases 3-5 being traversed early in December. As the month progresses, there are signals the MJO heads back into unfavorable phases 2-4 and the EPO returns to a raging positive anomaly. This will allow for a mid month warm spell favoring the east coast and upper Great Plains. Around 12/20 or later, there are a few undefined signals indicating a sudden stratospheric warming event which may help to dislodge the positive NAO. Corresponding with a quieter sun towards the beginning of January, a return to slight blocking across the North Atlantic will be possible in this period.

Temperature- Temperatures will range well above normal on average for the month ranging from (+1.5F)-(+2.5)F for most climatological reporting stations. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal for the first week or two of December. While slight transient cold waves are possible, they will last only 1-3 days at most. By mid month a possible transition to a milder pattern is possible with well above normal temperatures. Approaching late in the month towards Christmas, there is a chance of a return to a colder regime as we get closer to January. This may allow for seasonalable to slightly below normal temperatures. There remains a great deal of cold air on our side of the pole through December, so whenever or if this pattern changes, there will certainly be quite an arctic blast.

Precipitation- A relatively active subtropical jet stream considering we are in a moderate La Nina regime will continue to allow for the development of storm systems across the southern states. Given the lack of blocking, many of these storms will cut to the west of the Northeast putting most locations in the warm sector. While there will be a few periods for colder air across the east coast, timing will need to be perfect to get a snowstorm. In general this pattern is terrible for Middle Atlantic to receive any snowfall. I do believe though there will be 1-2 synoptic events which may allow for near normal snowfall for many locations. If these do not occur, it will be a mild and snowless month. Given the lack of sustained cold air, even the lake effect machine will remain quiet for the most part. Precipitation in general will average near climatological norms.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Local Harrisburg Radar"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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Categories: Weekly Forecast
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1. TheRasberryPatch 03:00 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Good morning Blizz.
Very well done new blog.
It amazes me how some people get so excited about shopping for deals on Black Friday. One thing I have always said and hope to always abide...I will never shop on Black Friday. Back in 2001 when I lived near Chester, NY...they have a outlets in Harriman, just off the NY thruway. It was so bad there people were parking on grass medians. An ambulance couldn't get into the parking lot to get to a man that was having a heartattack. It's just ridiculous how shoppers can be when it comes to shopping for Christmas.


I guess some years you win some and some years you lose some, pertaining to winter weather. In the 80's we didn't have too many cold and snowy Christmas seasons. Most were wet and temperate. It seemed like New Years Eve it would rain. Just part of living in the Mid-Atlantic. You grow up hoping and wishing, but it doesn't usually happen, especially in the 80's.

We really haven't seen any strong cold fronts move through with strong winds and dropping temperatures and a chance for flurries. By now we might have seen a couple of those.
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5645
3. originalLT 03:30 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Thanks Blizz, you touched on many topics. Wish we all could embrace the real spirit of Christmas, and not the ultra commercial one we have now. Sure I know it's important for the economy, but our shopping could and should be done in a more "civilized" way. That being said, getting to the weather, maybe the last few winters, we have been spoiled, here in the Middle Atlantic, and New England.
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5. Mason803 03:36 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Oct 29-30th storm rated number 1:


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6. Zachary Labe 04:03 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Thanks everyone!

TheRasberryPatch- Thanks! A more typical pattern with strong cold fronts is likely the next week or two. I am still watching for the chance of snow around December 5. A front may be coming through around that period, and if we get a shortwave to ride up along the front just after it passes, then there will be the potential for snow. Otherwise after that front it does look like widespread lake effect snow, so flurries will be possible down towards Harrisburg too most likely.

Mason803- Eh, not too pleased with their evaluation on snow totals. It is certainly inaccurate up here as accumulating snow only touched the New York counties that border with Pennsylvania, nothing anywhere north of there. Also seems a bit too far south with snow accumulations in Maryland and Virginia.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14315
7. TheRasberryPatch 05:03 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
that snow map does seem a bit off...I know my family in Towson and Bel Air didn't see any accumulation.

so December 5th is still on? I will have to make sure I get up my Christmas lights before the 5th. I usually wait until the weekend after the 5th. Good to hear there will be cold fronts moving through. Nice to have that crisp weather and I am so TIRED of rain
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9. Zachary Labe 05:42 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    

12z GFS for next week shows snow for western areas as a wave moves along the powerful cold front. Not too big of a deal as it is rain changing to snow for all areas, but it still needs to be watched for a more potent event.
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10. HeavySnow 05:59 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Nice blog. Nice sad blog.

heavydrizzle
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11. Zachary Labe 06:12 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Quoting HeavySnow:
Nice blog. Nice sad blog.

heavydrizzle

Thanks! I think this December will be very similar to December 2007 as far as snow distribution. There will be many mixed precipitation events while parts of New England get snow. Better than this pattern we currently are in.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14315
12. anduril 06:16 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Man, I was caught out of sorts by the heavy squall line that came through the Camp Hill area about 30mins ago. Really heavy rain and strong wind gusts between 20-30mph that made the rain sting like crazy.
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13. anduril 06:23 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Wow HBG airport recorded a 40mph wind gust apparently. Impressive
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15. NEwxguy 06:26 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
66 yesterday
66 today
I'm canceling all talk of Nor'easters and snowfall for the foreseeable future,this is crazy.
Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132
16. TheRasberryPatch 06:31 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Quoting mistymountainhop:

Are you anticipating a pretty potent system moving up the Eastern Seaboard within the next couple weeks?

I've noticed the pin oaks have not dropped much of their follage in the Butler county neck of the woods. Reasons?


Pin oaks don't drop their leaves in the winter. they drop their leaves in the spring.

Quoting NEwxguy:
66 yesterday
66 today
I'm canceling all talk of Nor'easters and snowfall for the foreseeable future,this is crazy.

You sound like PP...or maybe you are PP in disguise...hahahahaha
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17. Zachary Labe 07:31 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Quoting anduril:
Wow HBG airport recorded a 40mph wind gust apparently. Impressive

It seems odd there was not a special weather statement issued. I have heard several people mention the vicious squall that moved through Harrisburg.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14315
18. listenerVT 07:36 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
60.5 here officially, though my back porch thermometer reads 65~!!

This is *November* 29th, right?

Off to read the blog then off to work.
Thanks so much, Blizz!

Late addition:
I very much appreciated this sentence of yours, Blizz:
Instead of trying to rush December, take a moment to enjoy the heightened spirit.
Yes, that definitely helps. In fact, some traditions hold that the Christmas season begins Christmas Eve (the 12 days of Christmas), and that this time beforehand is Advent. I like how that concept slows me down.
Member Since: Luglio 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4792
19. newx1947 07:39 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
VT,I keep looking at my calendar,I figure I turned to many pages at some point this fall.

Raspberry,I've fallen into his way of thinking,not sure if thats a good or bad thing/
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20. Zachary Labe 07:47 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
For those looking at the Anchorage towercam, 14in of snow is the depth with 35in so far this month (about 20in above normal).

listenerVT- Thanks! 65F here too, hard to believe! Colder weather is coming with some guidance indicating 20s for highs around Wednesday next week for New England!
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21. originalLT 08:12 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
My temp. topped off at 66F(the sun came out for a few minutes and bumped the temp. up from 61 to 66 in about 30 mins.) 5TH straight day of 60F plus temps.
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22. TheRasberryPatch 08:57 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Blizz - I believe in the heightened spirit throughout December, also. I just love from Thanksgiving on leading up to December. I must admit at times I find Christmas Day a bit of a letdown because I enjoyed the lead up so much that nothing can top Christmas Day. The movies as well as the cartoons of Christmas are great to watch. Don't get me wrong. I love Christmas Day, but I think I love the whole season of Christmas and the letdown comes from it's Christmas and there is no more. even though the whole Christmas week is special then another letdown when New Years Day arrives with another year past and now 330 or so days until the next beautiful Advent and Christmas season. I just wish people would keep up there lights and tress until after January 6th. I was brought up that way and I always have my lights and trees still up past that day.
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23. Zachary Labe 09:16 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
TheRasberryPatch- Lol, I agree, I am actually always sad when Christmas day actually arrives knowing that it will be shortly over. The winter months can be very dull after Christmas (especially with no snow, lol).
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14315
24. TheRasberryPatch 09:25 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Quoting Blizzard92:
TheRasberryPatch- Lol, I agree, I am actually always sad when Christmas day actually arrives knowing that it will be shortly over. The winter months can be very dull after Christmas (especially with no snow, lol).


Exactly!!!

on the weather front...I didn't have any severe weather hit my area. some winds early, but only a gust of 22 mph. so far I have received 0.55" of rain
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25. Zachary Labe 09:58 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
As colder air filters into the Northeast, light snow is expected over the Laurel Highlands. Up to 1in of snow is possible above 2000ft in Somerset County, PA and Garret County, MD.

HRRR total accumulated snow
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26. Mason803 10:41 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Quoting Blizzard92:

It seems odd there was not a special weather statement issued. I have heard several people mention the vicious squall that moved through Harrisburg.



gusty here 2 with a recorded 41mph out of the due east (090)
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27. originalLT 10:52 PM GMT del 29 novembre 2011    
Blizz, check out AJ Jains featured blog about jobs in meteorology if you haven't done so yet.
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28. hurigo 12:05 AM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Hello Blizz, et al.
So are you all bored with the weather? I have not been paying attention, though someone at work told me there were surprise snows and foul weather in parts of the country. Of course, anyone who visits here regularly would not encounter a weather surprise.

Hey Patch: I am so excited. We are going to have a garden this year. Hubby has been very busy clearing land and taking down pieces of trees that were affected by Irene, as well as age and disease, I suppose. He had thought of doing something with the limbs, I don't know if he called it compost or something else, but we ended up paying someone just a little bit to take it away. There's always more yard debris. I will be asking you more questions -- after we finish with the thrills of the holidays -- and I am counting on you sharing your good advice.
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29. MariettaMoon 12:56 AM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
I'd hate to say this, but our region as a whole is due for a bad winter (aka, low snow).

Here's to patience and finger crossing...
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30. TheRasberryPatch 01:28 AM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Hello hurigo...it's been awhile. I will try to answer your questions to the best of my ability. Your climate may be sometimes hard for me to answer, especially with your soil and being so close to the beach. I highly recomment amending the soil there. If you can get some composted soil or mushroom soil.


My totals now for rain for the day is 0.72". Haven't we have enough for the year?
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31. GTOSnow 02:05 AM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Hoping for snow for my birthday, Dec 12th! Thanks for the blog Blizz always look forward to reading it!
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32. bwi 02:22 AM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Good evening everybody. It was an amazing Thanksgiving week for outdoor warm weather activities. Looking forward to continued nice weather for the next several weeks, and then winter can feel free to begin.
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33. listenerVT 02:43 AM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Quoting Blizzard92:
For those looking at the Anchorage towercam, 14in of snow is the depth with 35in so far this month (about 20in above normal).

listenerVT- Thanks! 65F here too, hard to believe! Colder weather is coming with some guidance indicating 20s for highs around Wednesday next week for New England!


Thanks for the Anchorage towercam note, as I look every time I come here.

We're expecting temps to be 50 overnight (!), then plummet tomorrow afternoon into the 30's, with a high on Thursday of about 38! We may have some flurries over the following several days, but no real accumulation. If we're going to have cold-enough weather, I'd rather the ground had a blanket of snow. My Irises and Sedum have sprouted as though it were Spring! Not good for the plants at all. At least it means we're consuming less heating fuel, and the plow guy isn't wreaking havoc with my bushes. But even so...!

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34. Zachary Labe 02:50 AM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
I still cannot believe how many mosquitoes remain out... what a joke.
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35. Zachary Labe 12:52 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
A little taste of winter is coming, but models are just horrific after that period. Another major mild blast is definitely coming mid month.
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36. TheRasberryPatch 01:43 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Quoting Blizzard92:
A little taste of winter is coming, but models are just horrific after that period. Another major mild blast is definitely coming mid month.


That's alright, just as long as winter returns by the 20th to get us more in the mood for Christmas
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37. originalLT 01:59 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
I hear ya Blizz, I do hope there is a pattern change as we near Christmas, would love some snow by then. But, saying that, as a home owner, I love that lower heating bill! Outside of that snowy weekend in late Oct. we have not had to use the heat that much. The last rain event left me with 0.45" of rain. Sunny outside now, 49F light WNW wind, Barometer is 29.65" and rising slowly.
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38. NEwxguy 02:15 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Another heatwave coming,Blizz,this is just an amazing pattern we are stuck in.
We are having a huge outbreakd of winter moths up here,just as sunset occurs you can see dozens of these moths rise out of the ground and they cover the sides of the houses and cars.Really bad,and to make matters even worse they will be laying eggs and hatch tons of catapillars in the spring which really damage the trees around this area. Anyone else having this problem?
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39. goofyrider 02:43 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Almost 2 in last week and 1/4 in yesterday. Last week was great at the shore 50's-60's and water was 58. Wonder if Mason's map was based on water equiv. or radar ? Might account for observations?
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40. MariettaMoon 02:47 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Not laying any bets on this
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41. TheRasberryPatch 03:25 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
NEwxguy - no moths around the LSV to speak about. I think most of our flying bugs have gone away, except for the stink bugs that you find at least one per day in your house
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5645
42. TheF1Man 03:52 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Great blog as always Blizz! Really disappointed about the lack of snow chances, I love even an inch or two just to whiten things up and it really gets you into the holiday spirit.

Lit my dad would say the same thing! Unfortunatly we have oil so when we say its cold he just says get blanket!

Actually tired of the mild weather myself now. It was nice to play 9 holes with my dad this past weekend though for one last time this year.



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44. Zachary Labe 04:48 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Don't look at the GFS, it is too depressing. Worst run yet. Although it does show a NNW for lake effect here in Ithaca, hehe.
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45. Zachary Labe 07:10 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Strange to see the GFS so warm given the 12z ECMWF is significantly colder next week. Guidance still suggesting a strong storm system early next week. Stay tuned!
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46. TheRasberryPatch 07:27 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Quoting Blizzard92:
Strange to see the GFS so warm given the 12z ECMWF is significantly colder next week. Guidance still suggesting a strong storm system early next week. Stay tuned!


The WU forecast is too warm for anything, here. Are you getting any lake effect today? Surprisingly, there hasn't been any lake effect off of Lower Lake Michigan and one time off of Lake Erie?
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47. Zachary Labe 07:32 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


The WU forecast is too warm for anything, here. Are you getting any lake effect today? Surprisingly, there hasn't been any lake effect off of Lower Lake Michigan and one time off of Lake Erie?

The precipitation today across New York and Pennsylvania is associated with a weak shortwave and not really lake effect. Been misting up here today, but that is it. If I were a betting man, I would say the storm system early next week is snow for areas across the far north in New England and perhaps maybe towards the Ohio Valley. Still bears watching here in the east I suppose.
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48. TheRasberryPatch 07:45 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Quoting Blizzard92:

The precipitation today across New York and Pennsylvania is associated with a weak shortwave and not really lake effect. Been misting up here today, but that is it. If I were a betting man, I would say the storm system early next week is snow for areas across the far north in New England and perhaps maybe towards the Ohio Valley. Still bears watching here in the east I suppose.


That sounds like a usual track for this time of the year. When do you foresee the LE kicking in for this winter?

my Davis has registered 4.43" for the month of November. I would say that is probably close to normal for November.
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49. wunderstorm87 08:10 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
An odd flash flood watch was issued for Lancaster county today despite no rain in the forecast...and here's why:

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE SPEEDWELL DAM IN LANCASTER COUNTY. THE SPILLWAY WAS
DAMAGED DURING HEAVY RAINS EARLIER THIS FALL WHICH HAVE CAUSED
WATER BEHIND THE DAM TO BUILD UP TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.
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50. NEwxguy 08:40 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
NEwxguy - no moths around the LSV to speak about. I think most of our flying bugs have gone away, except for the stink bugs that you find at least one per day in your house


They are local pest infestation,they were introduced from Europe into Nova Scotia and have spread into Maine and down the coast and the Eastern parts have been overrun with these moths which only come out around Thanksgiving and depending on how cold it gets they can stay around until Christmas.They come out at night and there are so many they are all over the sides of homes cars ,everywhere and get into homes.They lay eggs before winter sets in and in the spring catapillars hatch and are really damaging the trees up here.And they are spreading,down to areas in conn. RI and some areas of LI so you guys will see them in a few years.
Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132
51. Zachary Labe 09:24 PM GMT del 30 novembre 2011    
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


That sounds like a usual track for this time of the year. When do you foresee the LE kicking in for this winter?

my Davis has registered 4.43" for the month of November. I would say that is probably close to normal for November.

November only averages around 3in for rain in November. It was another well above normal month to continue out string. Next week should have some widespread lake effect possibly, but with all this warmth, it won't last too long.
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14315

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About Blizzard92
Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Personal Weather Stations
Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperatura: 62.5 °F
Punto di rugiada: 61.9 °F
Umidità: 98%
Vento: Calma - senza vento
Raffiche di vento: 0.0 mph
Updated: 09:48 PM EDT del 23 Maggio 2013
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