Coastal storm???

By: Zachary Labe , 07:50 PM GMT del 18 novembre 2009

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Good afternoon!!! Since the weather pattern has been relatively benign the last few weeks and that is going to continue, I thought it would be interesting to examine warmer than normal Novembers and see if there is any direct correlations to patterns in the winter. Meteorology forecasting is based on several things one of them including climatology and past weather patterns. The better knowledge a forecasting has of past weather conditions, the better forecast a meteorologist will have especially medium and long term range forecasting. While one could say seasonal forecasting is just a guess, much of it is based on solid meteorological logic on past weather patterns and current conditions against previous years. But what makes it so difficult is that every season is unique and completely different from the next, so these analog years only can be a base. Much of the past weather temperature departure data below is courtesy of the Millersville University Climatology data for Lancaster, Pennsylvania Link. I thought this would be a mean location for the Northern Middle Atlantic including the states of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Currently the culprit or catalyst for the warmer weather east of the Mississippi is the Alaska Vortex carving a trough across central Alaska with well below normal temperatures and widespread snowfall.

Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam...

Fig. 1- Many parts of Alaska are coated in several inches to feet of snow. Also lows of -25F are common across the northern tier near Barrow, Alaska these past few nights. Courtesy of Tazmanian and his tower cams on his blog.

This Alaskan Vortex was the main culprit for the last few winters and problems with inland storm tracks across the continental United States. But there are signs of this vortex retrograding and I will talk about the more towards the end of the blog. Also another issue is a displaced polar vortex. Currently the eastern Hemisphere is experiencing well below normal temperatures especially towards Asia. In fact Beijing, China experienced there heaviest snowfall on record this past week. This polar vortex is displaced and allowing a milder flow over the western hemisphere including much of North America. And will still have ongoing building cold air over the northern Arctic where temperatures have been well below normal. Also with above normal heights near the Hudson Bay of near 534dm, this is preventing any conformed blocking from the Hudson Bay to Greenland. But what is interesting and I think many people are beginning to forget is this is relatively typical for November. In fact take a look at Denver, Colorado. They are currently under another winter storm watch for 6-12inches of snow. November is one of their snowiest months of the year, so this pattern of western troughs with below normal temperatures in Alaska and displaced polar vortices is very common this time of year. But the question is how long this pattern will continue as it varies from year to year. Take 2006-2007, that winter featured an extremely mild November, December, and first half of January courtesy of all of the above conditions remaining stationary. But then a pattern change and shift in the global jet allowed for one of the coldest Februarys on record with several large snowstorms during the rest of the winter over the eastern half of the United States. So the first objective for the blog will be to analyze pure temperature trends from November to winter since 1914. Reminder these temperature records are out of Lancaster, Pennsylvania... My winter mean temperature consists of December, January, and February months.

Normal Departure Novembers... (+.5SD to -.5SD)

10/37 winters had a normal temperature mean
12/37 winters had a above normal temperature mean
15/37 winters had a below normal temperature mean

*Note: Generally equal chances follow temperature patterns for normal mean temperature Novembers. Little to no correlation

Above Normal Departure Novembers... (x>.5SD)

12/32 winters had normal temperature mean
7/32 winters had above normal temperature mean
13/32 winters had below normal temperature mean

*Note: Again small correlation but looking through data warmer than normal Novembers are followed by near normal or below normal temperature winters.

Below Normal Departure Novembers... (x<.5SD)

9/25 winters had normal temperature mean
8/25 winters had above normal temperature mean
8/25 winters had below normal temperature mean

*Note: Zero correlation for below normal temperature Novembers correlating to temperature patterns for winter.

As you can see there are very few correlations between November and ensuing winter average temperatures. But the highest correlation is between above normal temperature Novembers followed by normal or below normal winter mean temperatures. Here are a few interesting winters with severally altering weather patterns from November to winter (December, January February)

1961-1962...
November (+1.5)
December (-2.5)
January (-2.2)
February (-3.7)

1963-1964...
November (+4.5)
December (-6.1)
January (+0.2)
February (-3.1)

1977-1978...
November (+2.0)
December (-1.3)
January (-4.1)
February (-9.6)

1985-1986...
November (+4.2)
December (-3.4)
January (-0.4)
February (-3.0)

2003-2004...
November (+5.4)
December (0.0)
January (-5.6)
February (-5.4)

Out of those above five winters, one of them stands out as far as temperature patterns quite similar to November 2009. I think most areas will likely top out around +1.8 to +2.5 for the Northern Middle Atlantic for mean temperatures this November 2009. Yes I know that completely throws off my November forecast, but O well. Anyways 1961-962 and 1977-1978 have very similar temperature patterns for this November correlating to colder winters. I thought it would be appropriate to note the global patterns during those Novembers and correlate to the ongoing ENSO and global jet patterns of November 2009 to see if we can make any connections. As noted above the final mean temperature of November does not appear to have much effect on the ensuing winter mean temperature with generally equal chances. But I thought it was interesting to note the lowest mean proportion was above normal Novembers to above normal winters with only a 22% chance.

A glance at 1977-1978...

November 1977...

Fig 2- Courtesy of the NCDC. In general much of the nation featured above normal temperatures with a very similar temperature spread as November 2009.

Upon first glance at the ENSO records from November 1977 an ONI reading of .6 was read for an October, November, and December reading. This was part of a warm phase. Similar readings in 2009 with a reading of .9 found from August, September, and October. 1977-1978 featured a weak El Nino, unlike this year where forecasts will likely top out around moderate El Nino status at the height of the ENSO event somewhere around December. From past history archives weak El Nino events are less volatile as far as weather patterns go, therefore if a cold pattern establishes early in December, then it is likely to last through a majority of the winter. Where weak El Nino events tend to have more transient weather patterns without dominate temperature patterns establishing for long periods of time. In no way or another do I believe this winter will feature the arctic blasts that occurred in 1977-1978 making it one of the coldest on record. I did do some jet stream analysis in the 500mb range during the entire month of November 1977 finding some interesting similarities... Link. First off there were a series of cutoff lows across the nation particularly the south along with a series of winter storms across the Rockies. An Atlantic high offshore helped to funnel in the warmer air across the east along with a southeast ridge towards the end of the month. The last interesting note is the state of the PDO during 1977. It was near neutral or slightly positive, which is nearly identical to this year. The ENSO and PDO is a pretty close match to 2009. Again I really do not believe we will see the record cold of that winter as already evident, patterns seem very progressive and transient. But I think the connection can be made correlating a similar November temperature anomaly to a following below normal winter and/or only December.

A glance at 1985-1986...

November 1985...

Fig 3- Courtesy of the NCDC. A much larger temperature contrast across the nation with well below normal temperatures in the west with well above normal temperatures in the east.

Immediately looking at 1985-1985 it was featured as a weakening La Nina year with generally neutral Nino 3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies. Also important to note a developing El Nino occurred towards the latter of 1986. Pretty much this can be thrown out of the analog bin for that reason alone. But my interesting note when I looked at the 500mb analysis for the month (see link above), I found a very similar jet stream especially towards the east coast with a strong southeast ridge during the middle and end of the month with a deep trough and coastal storm during the first week of the month. This is pretty similar to the actual pattern switch timing for November 2009. Other than this interesting jet stream analysis, 1985-1986 is not an analog for this year as the ENSO conditions remain severely different.

So in conclusion November temperature trends have very small correlations but the dominate correlation is a warmer than normal November allowing for a near normal or colder than normal winter. Temperature anomalies so far for November 2009 range from (+1)-(+1.3) over much of the Northern Middle Atlantic. With little relief from the warmer than normal weather pattern temperature anomalies for the month will like top off around +2F or so, but is there a pattern change coming. The second half of this blog will try to take a look at that scenario. First of all yes I believe a pattern change will begin to unfold in the ensuing weeks particularly after Thanksgiving. Guidance is suggesting a return to transient troughs around the fourth week of November towards Thanksgiving. But during pattern changes the computer models can be a bit too anxious with pattern changes resulting a week or so later. At this current time I see a pattern change towards the first week of December with hints at the pattern change after Thanksgiving with weak troughing especially over New England.

Here is the current mean pattern for most of November...

Fig. 4- Courtesy of Penn State Meteo. A few things of interesting note already some of which mentioned earlier in this blog. The two areas of well below normal temperatures globally are across Asia and Alaska where the polar vortex remains displaced. Current PNA conditions remain negative along with a positive AO. This is allowing for abnormal weather 1000-500mb temperatures of near 540dm even towards the Hudson Bay. There has also been some slow ice development over the Arctic towards Greenland and that is courtesy of the southwest flow. No blocking is evident over the northern Atlantic, unlike October which featured strong rex blocking over Canada. But signs of a balance of equilibrium is occurring as the global jet and balance of the equatorial Pacific may allow for some colder air to enter the continental United States. First let’s look at the Madden-Julian Oscillation...


Fig 5- GFS ensembles are forecasting a general progression to phase 3 with weak forcing then possibly progressing back to phase 2.


Fig 6- Courtesy of Raleighwx. Phase 2 composites for December generally suggest widespread troughing over the east coast.

The MJO remains highly variable so forecasts remain very uncertain. It also does not appear MJO forcing will be too strong towards the 10-15 day range, which may limit its impact on the global 500mb pattern. Interesting to note also is that the HIRES GFS even suggests a higher chance of retrograding back to phase 2 for the MJO towards December. Looking at teleconnnections we are beginning to see a slight turn to a more favorable negative west-based NAO. Link. GFS and GFS ensembles are beginning to start to compromise towards the pattern for the start of December. ECMWF weeklies also suggest a similar pattern with towards the end of the run on the 11/14/09 0z run favoring some positive PNA ridging and a negative EPO. In general it appears the Alaska vortex with retrograde back as the favorable Aleutian Low, which we saw during much of October. My concerns though remain that some of the long range guidance suggests a continued active north Pacific storm track, which favors troughing over the west. But at least now guidance is beginning to suggest an end to this benign weather pattern. What I do not see is any extreme arctic blast, just a general relaxation in the ridging pattern over the east coast. My early thoughts suggest a volatile pattern in December with near normal temperatures. I think I can generally make the statement that chances of a snowstorm over the northern Middle Atlantic this November are very slim and the only chance would be during the last week of the month or so only if the pattern could find the needle in the haystack; that is we would need luck. But come December changes are coming, while small at first, they may be big in the long run. Anyways have a fantastic day!!!

"Here northeast of Harrisburg 2009-2010 winter statistics"
(Snow Stats)
Current Snow Cover- 0inches
Monthly Total- 0inches
Seasonal Total- 0inches
Winter Weather Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Warnings- 0
Ice Storm Warnings- 0
Blizzard Warnings- 0
Freezing Rain Advisories- 0
Winter Storm Watches- 0

(Temperature Stats)
Lowest High Temperature- 41degrees
Lowest Low Temperature- 23.5degrees
Wind Chill Advisories- 0
Wind Chill Warnings- 0

(Snow Storms Stats)
None...

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177. Jmedic
01:39 AM GMT del 27 novembre 2009
I'll keep u posted. Typically, I am in Pittsburgh which gets crap as far as snowfall, but here it's like "little Alaska." When I am back in the 'burg though I can ask my parent's how much snow they are getting here.
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176. Zachary Labe
01:36 AM GMT del 27 novembre 2009
Jmedic- It will be great for someone to report out in that direction this winter! I will have a snow map out tonight for the lake effect event.
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175. Jmedic
01:33 AM GMT del 27 novembre 2009
I'm at my parent's house in the laurel mtns in Somerset County Pa
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174. Zachary Labe
01:20 AM GMT del 27 novembre 2009
originalLT- I had a nice Thanksgiving too! Sunshine, boy you are lucky. We were socked in the clouds all day here today.

Jmedic- 34 already, where are you located?
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173. Jmedic
01:18 AM GMT del 27 novembre 2009
It's getting a little windy here and turing colder. We are down to 34*F.
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172. originalLT
01:02 AM GMT del 27 novembre 2009
Looking foreward to the new blog. Had a good Thanksgiving here at my house, we had 19 people in all, it went smoothly. Our house is not big, but we squeeezed 11 in the dining room, and 8 in the living room on a make-shift table. The turkey was 21 lbs., with stuffing and plenty of side dishes. I hope everyone's Thanksgiving went well. The sun came out by 1:30pm today and was sunny to sunset, temps. in the mid 50's.
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171. Zachary Labe
12:07 AM GMT del 27 novembre 2009
*New blog tonight!
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170. lawntonlookers
04:31 PM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Quite foggy out this morning. Have a great day
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169. originalLT
03:36 PM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Morning, Blizz and all, happy Thanksgiving, would be nice Blizz for later next week, but we really need to have that cold high to the north, hope one gets established.It still is alittle early climatalogically for a wide-spread decent snow. At least in my area near the coast.
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168. nyhurricaneboy
03:35 PM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Happy Thanksgiving, Blizzard!

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167. Zachary Labe
03:29 PM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
By the way some possible winter storm chances next week. Models starting to turn a bit colder and more ESE with storm system towards Monday and Tuesday with GFS actually indicating snow in 6z GFS run. The major system later in the week is also trending colder with a possible high to the north. Stay tuned! Also snow flakes are a decent possibility for many areas tomorrow.
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166. Zachary Labe
03:21 PM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Happy Thanksgiving all!!!
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165. synthman19872003
02:51 PM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
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164. pittsburghnurse
01:15 PM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
OK, I have something to confess. I'm having a relationship with a turkey. His name is Tom and he's a handsome fellow. He will be joining me for dinner tonite along with his posse, the yam, the green beans, the cranberry sauce and I do hope he brings his friend Pumpkin Pie. I'm going to knock the stuffing out of him when I see him. The relationship will be a flash in the pan, sure to end in only a few days.

Happy Thanksgiving from me and my Turkey and his Posse!
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163. weathergeek5
11:19 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Happy thanksgiving everyone!!
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162. RkTec
05:29 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Seeing snow fly every other day on that tower cam makes me jealous.
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161. synthman19872003
04:04 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Looks like there's more "upstream" too for the Anchorage area:



Strange how models can throw curve balls like that, but then again it doesn't really surprise me, especially when it's the GFS. Who knows, maybe now since it's calling for very little, you'll probably end up with a foot or more LOL! Anything's possible... ;)
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160. Zachary Labe
03:47 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Boy it is really snowing in Anchorage, Alaska. Check out the towercam. Anyways the forecast for Friday looks like mainly just lake effect snow showers as the deformation band has been eliminated in the latest model runs. Not that I was expecting anything, but I found it ridiculous after nearly 20 runs in a row on all of the models, in the last 24-36hrs it completely disappears. So one thing I am certain... This year will be filled with abnormal model headaches.
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159. Zachary Labe
02:04 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
originalLT- And the same to you and yours. It is hard to believe it is already Thanksgiving. Luckily my family all lives in the general same vicinity so no travel for me like many across the US.
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158. originalLT
01:48 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Oh, and of course Blizz, have a happy Thanksgiving, you and your entire family.
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157. originalLT
01:45 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
I understand what you're saying Blizz, there must be meteorological input, insight,logic, etc. to make forecasts, you just can't go by the models alone. You've got to be able to think, and put info. logically together, and draw conclusions from it. And then, learn from your mistakes.
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156. Zachary Labe
01:36 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
A light to moderate snow is going to occur in Anchorage, Alaska tonight so be sure to check the towercam tomorrow.
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155. Zachary Labe
01:18 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Blizz, I hear what you're saying, but isn't that a little harsh?

Maybe, lol. It is all part of my rant about the modern technology taking over the process of meteorologist input; just one of those things that urk me, lol.

seflagamma- Thanks! Have a great Thanksgiving too!
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154. seflagamma
12:07 AM GMT del 26 novembre 2009
Hi Bliz,

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

Oh my daugher is already over your Penn weather!
She and Baron are flying in Dec 10th and staying until Jan 5th! and her hubby will be here as soon as he can get off work for 3 weeks!

Those "Florida Kids" do not take northern weather well.. plus all their family is down here.
LOL


But I do want to wish you and your family a lovely Thanksgiving.
Take care,



Happy Thanksgiving Comments and Graphics for MySpace, Tagged, Facebook
Comments and Graphics - Thanksgiving Layouts - Photobucket
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153. originalLT
10:55 PM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
The one guy there at Acc. that I do respect is Elliot Abrams, he seems the most "level headed". I just like to read Madman Margusity for a laugh, he is wrong sooo often. But he seems like a nice guy though.
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152. RkTec
10:15 PM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Link: Margusity snow map

We'll see about that. lol
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151. SilverShipsofAndilar
09:30 PM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Quoting Blizzard92:
SilverShipsofAndilar- I never look at Accuweather forecasts. I have found they are purely a regurgitation of the 0z GFS. I am not saying the all rain is wrong, but I am saying the forecast has little if any meteorologist input.


Hahaha, yeah, Margusity has a video of his forecast (even though he's calling for snow and I'm calling for rain) and I think he says something to the effect of, "I wish there was only one model. I'm going with the GFS. See, these other models kind of agree with the GFS anyway."
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150. originalLT
08:30 PM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Hi Blizz, I hear what you're saying, but isn't that alittle harsh?
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149. Zachary Labe
07:49 PM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
SilverShipsofAndilar- I never look at Accuweather forecasts. I have found they are purely a regurgitation of the 0z GFS. I am not saying the all rain is wrong, but I am saying the forecast has little if any meteorologist input.
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148. originalLT
06:29 PM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Just to report in my weather, light rain here, for about an hour now, before that just mist, 50F , east wind 2-6mph. Baro 30.00" falling slowly. Pretty dreary outside.
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147. SilverShipsofAndilar
03:35 PM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
AccuWeather = All Rain; NWS = Wet Snow Mixing on Ridges; TWC = Rain/Snow Mix; WU=Picture of All Snow w/Description of Rain/Snow Mix. I can't believe I'm saying this, but right now I'm camping with AccuWeather.
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146. RkTec
01:49 PM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
8 hours later and the forecast has changed. LOL

Now they forecast all rain with temps in the mid 40's. Who knows maybe we'll still get some surprises.
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145. Zachary Labe
11:12 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
onoweather- No not really, lacking a high pressure to the north. What we are counting on is dynamic cooling with heavy precipitation as the low deepens. H85s are well below freezing, but surface temperatures are a little too mild. If we get some heavy precipitation it could bring down the 1700ft freezing level to the surface as 925mb temperatures are only around 0C for our area. I think our chance at seeing at least flakes is getting higher though.

originalLT- Thanks! It will be interesting to see how it works in the summer!

RkTec- Lol, it sure does seem like it changes every few hours.
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144. RkTec
05:49 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
NWS forecast for Allentown on Friday is showers likely with snow showers likely in the afternoon, then back to showers Friday night.

Forecast will probably be different come morning though. LOL
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143. originalLT
05:43 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Hi Blizz, good luck with your Lightning Detector. Yeah, I have a lightning detector, its called an AM radio not set directly on a station, works pretty good too! LOL !
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142. onoweather
05:06 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
hey blizz- if your still up is there any CAD possible thursday night making it colder than what the models are predicting as they usually dont handle CAD to well in southern pa. And are we going to see any sun on thanksgiving, this easterly fetch is rather miserable.
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141. Zachary Labe
03:48 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Jmedic- Yep, most of the fun is looking at the physical aspect of why we even have a storm.


*Anyways 0z GFS continues unusual deformation band over Susquehanna Valley. We shall see, it has been very consistent along with other guidance. But temperatures may just be too mild. The reason I continue to watch this threat as from experience these closed 500mb lows passing to our south with a weak vortex of eastern Pennsylvania occassionaly cause some surprises.
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140. Jmedic
03:41 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Yup, I'm gonna sit back and watch. It's cool that we can forecast a system, but part of the fun is watching it develop (or not) and then learning from that. If we could pin down forecasts to the specifics, what would be the fun?
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139. Zachary Labe
03:36 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
0z GFS running...
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138. weathergeek5
03:34 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
here is the conclusion of my NWS's spiel on this coming winter: we wish we knew.

THE QUESTION WE WISHED WE KNEW THE ANSWER TO WAS WHETHER THIS
UPCOMING NINO WINTER WOULD BE A ONE HIT WONDER LIKE 1994-5 OR GO
PLATINUM LIKE 1982-3 OR 2004-5.
AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE IS
NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS. WE HOPE EVERYBODY HAS A VERY
HAPPY AND HEALTHY THANKSGIVING AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND WINTER
SEASON. THE SALT HAS BEEN PURCHASED AND THE SNOW THROWER IS GASSED
AND READY TO GO.

We don't know everything so sit back and enjoy the ride.
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137. Zachary Labe
03:31 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
weathergeek5- Exactly! On a comical side note, whenever people start pulling out the pathetic models to support their forecast... it is all downhill from there. Once you see the JMA, KMA, Australian Computer model, NOGAPS, etc.... time to run lol.
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136. weathergeek5
03:23 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Again this shows us that we need to just look at the overall patterns in the near term. Look at the current observations now. I am guilty of this: Do not put 100% faith in each run of the the almighty computer models. They are wrong too. The "other site" is guilty of that. When things don't go their way they turn on each other like wolves. I will tell you right now that this blog is NOT like the other site. Call this weird but mother nature does NOT like to be and refuses to be pinned down and figured out. She will then throw us a curve ball that we are not expecting. I am just going to track whatever comes who is with me?!?!
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135. Zachary Labe
02:42 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009

This is the latest 0z NAM which may indicate some dynamic cooling snow over eastern Pennsylvania with the deformation band. 700mb low and 850mb low pass along or to the south of Pennsylvania and with a core axis of heavy precipitation and a strengthening low -2mb/h, so this may have some snow fall along and north of the turnpike in the Susquehanna Valley up through the Poconos. Schuykill County does well with a light accumulation verbatum the 0z NAM.
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134. Zachary Labe
01:14 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
*By the way I got myself a lightning detector. It is one of the inexpensive ones, StrikeAlert, but I am going to see if the lightning detectors really work to look for potential future ones down the road. In any case it reports lightning strikes up to 40mi away and whether the storm is approaching or departing.
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133. Zachary Labe
01:12 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
originalLT- Lol, well I am not enthusiastic about the next two weeks is all, but that does not mean the rest of the winter. Here are my thoughts... Until I see a west to east polar regime over Canada there is not going to be any unusual cold air over the United States, that simple. The polar vortex remains on the other side of the globe, the only thing changing our pattern is a more favorable Pacific with an Alaskan ridge and negative EPO. Atlantic continues to look poor with a positive NAO despite what the teleconnection index shows. Once we see colder air anomalies in Canada then a good estimate for a switch to colder air in the United States is about a week later. Canadian snow cover is near record levels along with north Arctic sea ice. But look towards Siberia and they are basking in record snowfall depths. Once the global upper air pattern switches, look out! For now it looks like a seasonable pattern is in store for a little bit in the coming week or so which really is a pattern change in itself as we finally shave these warmer than normal temperatures. So even with climatological normal temperatures, that bodes for snow chances. As much as I say the models look wonderful long term wise, my deep analysis bodes with my thoughts above. So when I say "models look wonderful in long term," that really only means verbatum what they show.
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132. originalLT
12:57 AM GMT del 25 novembre 2009
Blizz, you're just the opposite now of "Henry Madman Margusity", If you see his Video today on Accu. W. he is about to hyper-ventilate!! Especially about the next 2 weeks or so, starting this Friday.
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131. Zachary Labe
09:46 PM GMT del 24 novembre 2009
PalmyraPunishment- I am loosing my enthusiasm for December fast. Not that my winter forecast called for an exciting December; in fact my forecast was for below normal snowfall and normal to slightly above normal temperatures. The models are really backing off on the cold to start the month, but in the back of my head there is no surprise there.

TheRasberryPatch- I know you are sort of "old fashioned" about seasonal forecasts, lol, but really it is like this every year; just a bunch of educated speculation.

shoreacres- Thanks! I wish I could send you some moisture. Have a great holiday too!!!
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15127
130. shoreacres
09:42 PM GMT del 24 novembre 2009
Hi, Bliz and all ~

I was just looking at this - "...models still hinting at this interesting deformation zone which may bring some snow to unexpected areas..." - and wondering. You mean, unexpected areas like, Texas? LOL!

Happy Thanksgiving to all. Hope the weather does allow hassle-free travel, and whatever activities you all have planned!

Member Since: Ottobre 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
129. TheRasberryPatch
09:32 PM GMT del 24 novembre 2009
i don't think so Blizz. if anything it seems to me like this upcoming winter is being over analyzed. its going to be a wait and see. as you said in a blog not too long ago, we look at averages as being the norm when you really find out it isn't. so who knows?
Member Since: Gennaio 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6266
128. PalmyraPunishment
09:31 PM GMT del 24 novembre 2009
I'm not sure what could be out there that's so glaring that it could be missed, but I do find it a bit odd that most Professional Meteorologists are expressing great enthusasiam about this winter when most amateurs are expressing serious doubts.

WGAL's extended winter outlook came out yesterday on the website with Dr Scala and another dope and they both feel that we're setting up for a pattern very similar to that of 2002-2003 which was, the infamous President's Day snow winter. WGAL is calling for at or below normal temps and at or above average snowfall.

Yet I see just about everywhere (except here, of course) in the weather blogosphere that winter's not only been canceled, but it never even bothered to intend to show. That to me seems incredibly odd and tells me that 1 of 2 things are occuring

1) The amateur weather commmunity is missing something in model runs and forecasting, and that something is going to cause every forecast to potentially bust, but for the benefit of snow lovers.

or

2) Everyone's so down about the last 2-3 winters and busted forecasts and southeast ridges and apps runners and lakes cutters that we've become too cynical.

Maybe we just need to pull our heads out of, well... you know?

I don't think this blog is guilty -- and this site certainly isn't as guilty as "the other site", but something definitely seems amiss.
Member Since: Gennaio 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
127. Zachary Labe
09:02 PM GMT del 24 novembre 2009
By the way models still hinting at this interesting deformation zone which may bring some snow to unexpected areas. Stay tuned despite forecasts not showing it!


Food for thought... No this is not a cancel winter, but I have just been thinking. Since almost every reputable meteorologist I can find is really enthusiastic about the Middle Atlantic winter snow prospects, is there something we are all overlooking? Is there an X factor that will reek havoc with our forecasts?
Member Since: Dicembre 14, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 15127

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Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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