2008HurricaneSeason's Blog
INVEST 92L develops...OFFICIAL blog for 92L.
Posted by: 2008HurricaneSeason, 05:32 AM GMT del 10 Agosto 2008 +0
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?ACTIVES=08-CPAC-01C.KIKA,08-EPAC-09E.HERNAN,08-ATL-92L .INVEST,08-CPAC-94C.INVEST,08-WPAC-94W.INVEST,08-EPAC-95E.INVEST,08-WPAC-95W.INVEST,08-EPAC-96E.INVE ST,08-WPAC-012.TCS012,08-WPAC-013.TCS013&PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=al&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&YR=08&ATCF_YR=1&YEA R=2008&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT=20080810.1115.goes12.x.vis1km_high.92LINVEST.25kts-NAmb-108N-413W.100pc. jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=al921&ATCF_DIR=1&ARCHIVE=active&MO=AUG&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=92L.INVEST&STYL E=tables&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&PRODUCT=v is&DIR=/TC/tc08/ATL/92L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom&TYPE=vis&PROD=geo&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_zoom









Invest 92L has formed! Well it is currently located about 43-44W and about 1k miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles moving north of due west at about 17 knots. Winds are estimated at 25 knots, and the convection has increased overnight, as expected...it is around diurnal max in the area. Once diurnal minimum starts to take its toll on 92L this thing will likely dissipate in my opinion.


IMO, there is too much dry air to this system (92L) to contend with. Will probably go poof within 12 hours. The wave behind it around 35W, however, has a better chance than 92L...and only if it develops a surface circulation. Right now the wave behind 92L is associated with the ITCZ and has no signs of a closed surface low. Would not look for development out of that system either, though the air will be more moisture-laden by then.


The African wave has a slightly better chance but since it hasn't gotten its entire body asea yet...we can't tell it's probability chances for development.

Right now I'm going with


3% chance for 92L
5% chance for the wave behind 92L
15% chance for the African wave



That's my best guesses. What about yours!
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1. 2008HurricaneSeason 01:11 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2008    
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2. oakland 01:30 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2008    
Right now I'm going with


3% chance for 92L
5% chance for the wave behind 92L
15% chance for the African wave


You have no idea how much I hope your predictions are right.
Member Since: Settembre 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7520
3. CybrTeddy 02:12 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2008    
What? Theres an Anticyclone over it, even the NHC says conditions to become better organized. Its in
DMIN right now and its increasing in convection. Your forecast looks very wrong in my opinion. And the NHC says that 92L has a Surface Circulation.
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20263
6. CybrTeddy 02:18 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2008    
Is this that one guy that said the last 92L was going to poof? And when it became a TD he said poof, and when It became a TS he said poof? Only when it hit Hurricane strength he got banned.
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20263
7. 2008HurricaneSeason 02:21 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2008    
No...I knew Bertha was going to develop. I'm not a troll.
8. ltcenter 05:35 PM GMT del 10 Agosto 2008    
I do not agree with you at all. I do believe 92l will become a depression, storm, even a hurricane in it's lifetime, I give this system a 50 percent chance to develop into a depression in 2 days.
9. 2008HurricaneSeason 09:41 PM GMT del 11 Agosto 2008    
bump

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