Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
638 am CDT Sat may 25 2013
Update...
see 12z aviation discussion below.
&&
Aviation...
mainly MVFR conditions will prevail at most west central Texas
terminals though noon today...before slowly improving to low even
VFR conditions. Area radars are already showing a few showers and storms
near kabi...Abilene...and kbbd...Brady...sites. However...activity
will likely stay scattered enough near these sites to not need a
prevailing drop in visibility or ceilings. Everything indicates stratus
surges north once again this evening...bringing MVFR back to the
entire area.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 413 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Short term...
low pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere continues
to spin across central Texas. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
increasing in coverage across the central Texas coast northwest into
The Hill Country...and continue to spread to the north and west.
This system should weaken and drift northward today...with the
majority of the convection remaining close to the system across the
Heartland and Northwest Hill country. Have increased probability of precipitation...into the
likely category across San Saba County.
Models have struggled to handle the mesoscale features that driven
the exact placement of the convection. But the general area has been
OK. With this in mind...will keep the slight chance probability of precipitation in place
for tonight...with most of the showers and storms farther east.
Long term...
Sunday through Tuesday...expect warm and dry weather across west
central Texas early this week due to an upper level ridge. Highs
will be in the middle 80s to lower 90s...with lows in the 60s to
around 70.
Wednesday through Saturday...medium range models have some
uncertainty with the next upper level trough over the western US by
late in the week. The European model (ecmwf) is stronger with a negative tilt
system moving into the central Continental U.S. By Wednesday...and the GFS
indicates a broader cyclonic flow pattern or not as amplified.
Also...the European model (ecmwf) is much wetter over west central Texas than the
GFS. The wpc 5 day gridded quantitative precipitation forecast is going more in line with the
European model (ecmwf)...with 1 to 2 inches of rain by 00z may 30. The bottom
line...upper level southwest flow over the Southern Plains and a
dryline across western Texas/west of the County warning forecast area/will be the main
players. Will keep slight chance to chance probability of precipitation for thunderstorms on Wednesday and
Thursday...with a little better coverage across western and
northern parts of our County warning forecast area. Friday and Saturday will be warm and
dry across west central Texas as an upper level ridge returns.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 83 69 89 68 88 / 30 20 10 10 5
San Angelo 84 69 91 69 90 / 30 20 10 5 5
Junction 84 68 89 69 86 / 40 20 5 5 5
&&
Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
07
