Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Diego California
940 am PDT Sat may 25 2013
Synopsis...
upper level trough of low pressure will remain over the West Coast
this week...with temperatures remaining near to below average and
onshore flow continuing. Therefore...expect a deep marine layer to
persist...with areas of night and morning low clouds and fog
possible each day...with gusty west winds in the mountains and
deserts each afternoon and evening.
&&
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties...
Water vapor imagery continues to show a broad trough of low pressure
over the West Coast this morning...with several disturbances
rotating around and through this trough. As a result...relatively
strong onshore flow continues across Southern California this
morning...with the San Diego to Daggett and the San Diego to thermal
gradient both at 6.3 mbs...or roughly 2 mbs stronger than this time
yesterday morning. Although the marine layer is roughly 200 feet
lower in height this morning as compared to yesterday...the 12z knkx
sounding still shows it around 3200 feet deep. For this
reason...saw another good push inland across the valleys this
morning...with visible imagery showing low clouds even extending up
into the Cajon Pass. Currently...visible imagery shows that most of
the low clouds have cleared San Diego County...but hanging on strong
across Orange County and the northern inland Empire. It will take a
while for these clouds to burn off...so have updated the forecast to
reflect current trends and thinking.
Only minor fluctuations in the forecast will be possible over the
next several days...as this trough remains in place along the West
Coast. Models are hinting at some drizzle or light showers possible
late Monday night and into Tuesday...as the marine layer deepens to
around 5000 feet. Otherwise...expect near to below normal
conditions to continue to prevail across the Southland...as strong
onshore flow continues and a deep marine layer persists. Locally
gusty west winds will also be possible in the mountains and deserts
each afternoon through the late evening...potentially flirting with
advisory type strengths at times.
&&
Aviation...
251500z...coast/valleys...stratus clouds with bases around 2500 feet
mean sea level and tops 3500 feet mean sea level will erode to the coast this morning
between 25/1600z-1800z with skies becoming few/sct. Stratus will
again spread 15-20 sm inland between 26/0100z-0300z this evening.
Bases similar to this morning...around 2500 feet mean sea level and tops 2500 feet
mean sea level. Visible will remain above 5 sm...locally lower where the clouds
intersect terrain.
Mtns/deserts...mostly clear with unrestricted visible through Sunday
afternoon. Gusty surface west winds to 35 knots will develop Sunday
afternoon over the Desert Mountain slopes and through/east of San
Gorgonio Pass.
&&
Marine...
astronomical high tides to 7.2 feet and below normal low
tides...with swings of 8.9 feet...will combine with slightly above
normal surf to bring a small chance of minor coastal flooding
through Memorial Day. The highest high tides will take place in the
late evenings and the lowest low tides will be in the early
mornings. Strong rip currents will continue through Memorial
Day...partly due to the swings in The Tides.
&&
Sgx watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&
$$
Public...Palmer
aviation/marine...jt
