Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona
900 PM MST Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
strong high pressure combined with persistent southwesterly flow
will keep temperatures slightly above normal through the weekend.
This will result in dry weather and persistent clear skies across
all of southeast California...southwest and south central Arizona.
&&
Discussion...
dry southwesterly flow persists this evening under clear skies. In
the short-term...minor adjustments were made to the
temperatures/dewpoints. Otherwise...the forecast remains on track.
&&
Previous discussion...
tonight through Friday...
a rather large and energetic low pressure system will continue to
move slowly into the Pacific northwest through Friday. Far removed
at our latitude...dry westerly flow of warm subsident air will
dominate. Little change in temperatures are also forecast this week
with readings near or slightly above normal...I.E. 104 to 108 degree f
on the lower deserts.
Saturday through Tuesday...
higher amounts of Mexican moisture will slowly creep north into
parts of far Southeast Arizona late Saturday and Sunday....however still
remain at Bay across parts of our forecast area...namely Phoenix
/zone 23/ east to Globe/Miami /zone 24/.
However by late Monday and Tuesday enough low level moisture may
spread north into parts of our zone 24 for a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms by Tuesday. Little change in temperatures
are expected Saturday through Tuesday with near or slightly above
normal values.
&&
Aviation...
south-central Arizona...including kphx...kiwa and ksdl...
southeast California and southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh...
Mostly clear skies. Locally gusty winds up to 20-25kt during the
evening hours...mainly at kipl....otherwise light winds expected
overnight at all taf sites through 17z Wednesday.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.
&&
Fire weather...
Friday through Tuesday...
very dry southwesterly flow aloft will prevail through early next
week...with only a slight increase in moisture working into portions
of southern Arizona over the weekend. Indications are only far
Southeast Arizona and New Mexico would be affected by this moisture.
Therefore...dry weather...clear skies...lighter winds can be
expected through the entire period. Minimum afternoon humidity
values will fall into the single digits...with fair to poor
overnight recovery. Some higher wind gusts may be possible Thursday
and Friday afternoon...though still well below critical thresholds.
&&
Psr watches/warnings/advisories...
Arizona...none.
California...none.
&&
$$
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Discussion...Hirsch
previous discussion...vasquez/percha
aviation...Meyers
fire weather...MO/Meyers
