Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
325 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 325 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Main forecast concern in the short term is the chance for showers
and thunderstorms and associated severe potential this evening...
mainly in the vicinity of the Wabash River valley.
Latest weather analysis depicted a weak surface boundary draped
across central Indiana...central Illinois...and northern
Missouri...with another very weak boundary over central Missouri
near the Lake of The Ozarks. In the upper levels...a southeastward
moving shortwave trough was positioned over Iowa and northern
Illinois. As this feature approaches late this afternoon...isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire in the moderately
unstable air mass along and ahead of the surface boundary. The
greatest potential for severe weather should reside north of the
region. Locally...our northernmost counties in southeast Illinois
and southwest Indiana along and north of Interstate 64 will see
the best combination of deep layered shear and instability to pose
the potential for a few severe storms. The main concern with the
thunderstorm activity is large hail with the potential for strong
updrafts...and damaging winds with the increase in wind shear and
relatively dry air aloft. Any remnant thunderstorm activity should
rapidly diminish this evening with the setting sun as it drifts
southeast across mainly the northeastern half of the area.
Through the remainder of the short term...mainly dry conditions
are expected as high pressure builds south from the Great Lakes.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly cooler with highs only
in the middle 80s. A warming trend will get underway as early as
Thursday as the high begins to shift east of the area. There is
also a very small chance for an isolated thunderstorm Thursday
afternoon...mainly over the Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri.
Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 325 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Hot and a bit more humid days are expected as a 500 mb high sits
over the middle Mississippi Valley. Little if any convection is
expected with the ridging aloft...and in the absence of any
significant low level boundaries. The h50 ridge may flatten just a bit
early next week...but only enough to warrant a slight storm chance at
this time.
With afternoon 850 mb temperatures forecast to hover around or just below
20 c...daily highs in the 90 to 93 range can be expected over the
weekend and into next week. Current forecast dew points in the upper
half of the 60s would produce heat indices a few degrees higher
than actual temperatures.
&&
Aviation...
issued at 119 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms may impact kevv and kowb during the late afternoon
and early evening as an upper level disturbance approaches from the
northwest. Light west to north winds winds will become northeast by
Wednesday. The chance of patchy fog early Wednesday morning still
appears too low to mention in tafs at this time.
&&
Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&
$$
Short term...rjp
long term...GM
aviation...rjp
