Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
357 PM EDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Discussion...
Current/tonight...early onset of showers and storms has stabilized
much of east central Florida now under a canopy of debris cloudiness.
As expected...focus for convection is pushing toward the Florida West
Coast however. Martin/Okeechobee counties are an exception as they
have not been worked over with convection yet today so that
appears to be the best chance through early evening. However...
pockets of isolated convection will be possible into early evening
over areas that have not been worked over or where some additional
heating can take place. Large area of light to moderate rain in
the wake of the convection will gradually diminish this evening
over land. Expect convection to refire over the Atlantic waters
tonight and may brush the coast especially south of the cape so will hold
onto higher probability of precipitation (30-40 percent) there overnight.
Wednesday...upper low over the Florida Peninsula opens up and lifts NE.
Expect one more day of above normal rain chances around 50
percent. Like previous days expect showers and storms to develop
near or just inland from the East Coast with focus shifting to
the far interior during the afternoon with boundary collisions.
Wednesday night/Thursday...western Atlantic ridge will shift east as broad upper
level trough swings into the eastern sections of the US. Middle levels will dry
slightly ahead of surface frontal boundary north of the state. This
boundary does not push into area until Friday. Will keep evening probability of precipitation
Wednesday night and follow guidance of slightly lower precipitation chances (near
climo) on Thursday. Frontal feature with drier air will follow late
Friday but flow will veer quickly onshore and increase as strong
ridge builds along the middle Atlantic coast.
Previous disc...
Sat-Mon...western Atlantic h50 trough will sweep quickly eastward this
weekend...although a general cyclonic middle/upper flow pattern will
persists over the eastern Continental U.S. Into early next week. Fairly Stout
onshore flow will persist over ecfl with much lower rain chances Sat
(15-20) along with absence of ts. It appears there may be enough
mean dry air working into ecfl to allow for a dry forecast over land
sun-Mon...though a stray Atlantic shower could reach the coast.
Temperatures will fall back to near climatology norms of l-m80s along the coast
and u80s inland. Mins in the u60s inland to l70s along the coast.
&&
Aviation...
mainly VFR. Expect earlier end to convection this evening than
previous days. But rain showers/thunderstorms and rain redeveloping just offshore may affect
mlb-sua overnight. Patchy fog possible intrr terminals
&&
Marine...
tonight/Wed...weakening Atlantic ridge will slacken the pressure gradient
across the waters so southeast winds will decrease to 5-10 knots late
tonight/early Wednesday...then east/southeast around 10 knots Wednesday afternoon. Persistent
east/NE swell will keep seas a little higher...3-4 feet...than what
would be expected in such wind flow.
Post frontal boundary on Saturday...press gradient will tighten
dramatically with a strong east flow. Small Craft Advisory likely to develop by late
Saturday and continue into early next week.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 68 84 67 86 / 30 40 30 30
mco 68 88 68 90 / 30 50 30 30
mlb 70 85 69 87 / 40 50 30 30
vrb 68 86 69 86 / 40 50 30 30
Lee 68 88 69 89 / 30 50 30 30
sfb 69 89 69 91 / 30 50 30 30
orl 70 88 70 90 / 30 50 30 30
fpr 68 86 68 87 / 40 50 30 30
&&
Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Short term...Kelly
impact wx/radar...blottman
