Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
240 PM EDT Sat may 18 2013
Discussion...
Currently/tonight...sea breeze boundaries will continue to move
inland through the afternoon with isolated showers and storms
developing. Greater convective coverage will occur with the sea
breeze collision west of Orlando toward sunset with a few stronger
storms expected across the interior through early evening. This
activity should diminish by midnight and then will keep a slight
chance for onshore moving showers along the Treasure Coast
overnight. Mild temperatures expected with lows in the upper
60s/near 70 degrees.
Sunday...moisture will continue to increase as low level S/southeast flow
persists. High pressure ridge axis will shift southward across the
region and will produce light enough winds for sea breeze boundaries
to move inland and collide over the interior late in the day.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop into the
afternoon with best coverage over the interior due to the sea breeze
boundary interactions. Lingering dry middle level air and cool 500mb
temperatures around -10c will once again lead to the potential for some
stronger inland storms later in the afternoon. Highs will remain
slightly warmer than normal ranging from the middle 80s along the coast
to near 90 degrees inland.
Monday-Sat (modified)...the high pressure ridge axis is forecast to
lift north of central Florida which will maintain an east to
southeast low level flow through Saturday. Middle level cap that was
suppressing convection breaks down allowing slightly higher rain
chances. Deepening southeasterly flow begins pulling more
moisture into central Florida. Greatest depth of moisture forecast
to be middle week which would correlate to the highest pop at around
40 percent. Middle level dry air returns by Friday but sufficient low
level moisture and Sea/Lake breezes interacting should produce
scattered showers/storms Friday. Coverage of showers/storms drops
off to around 20 percent Saturday as the middle level cap/S effect
takes charge. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s for the
interior. Daily sea breeze formation will limit highs to the middle
80s at the immediate coast/beaches. Middle and upper 80s away from
the coast to west of Interstate 95 where temperatures will have
had more time to rise before the sea breezes push through.
&&
Aviation...
mainly VFR. Sea breeze collision west of Orlando toward sunset
will generate isolated/scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain into early evening producing
tempo IFR/MVFR conds. Added tempo groups for storms between 21-01z
for ksfb/kmco/kism/klee where rain chances are greater. Moisture
will continue to increase into tomorrow with another round of
isolated/scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain developing over central Florida into the after.
&&
Marine...
today/tonight...ridge axis over North Florida shifts southward and
across the waters tomorrow with winds generally remaining out of the
southeast around 10 to 15 kts or less. Seas will continue to range
from 2-3 feet nearshore to 3-4 feet offshore.
Mon-Wed...east to southeast flow generally 15 knots or less. Seas
3 to 4 feet offshore and 2 to 3 feet nearshore. A 2 to 3 foot long
period swell component will keep the rip current risk low to
moderate.
&&
Fire weather...
min relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Scattered
lightning storms are expected each afternoon especially interior.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 68 85 69 83 / 10 30 20 20
mco 69 89 70 88 / 30 40 20 30
mlb 70 84 73 85 / 10 20 10 20
vrb 70 85 72 85 / 20 20 20 20
Lee 70 89 71 87 / 30 40 20 30
sfb 69 89 71 88 / 30 40 20 30
orl 69 88 72 88 / 30 40 20 30
fpr 69 84 71 85 / 20 20 20 20
&&
Mlb watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Am...none.
&&
$$
Weitlich/Kelly
