Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
230 am EDT sun may 26 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will build over the area from the northwest through
tonight...then extend over the area from offshore through next
week.
&&
Near term /through today/...
as of 230 am Sunday...high pressure continues to build into the
area from the northwest producing a flow of cool and dry low level
air across eastern NC. Satellite imagery indicates middle and high
level clouds streaking southeast into eastern NC early this
morning. These clouds will be most widespread across the SW zones
with the northeast zones remaining mostly clear. The clouds are
forecast to dissipate after 18z this afternoon. After a chilly
start with low temperatures near record levels...highs are
expected to remain below normal but average a little higher than
yesterday with middle 70s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s at the
beaches. Winds will be light with local sea breeze circulations
expected to develop late in the afternoon.
Some record lows for this morning 5/26:
Kewn 50 1967
Greenville 43 1988
Washington 51 1904
&&
Short term /tonight/...
as of 230 am Sunday...high pressure will crest over the area
tonight producing light winds and clear skies. Resulting strong
radiational cooling will produce another night of chilly
temperatures with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland
and 55 to 60 at the beaches.
&&
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
as of 230 am sun...25/12z European model (ecmwf) and 26/00z GFS in very close
agreement through the extended period. Upper ridge will continue
to build through midweek...peaking on Thursday. The ridge axis
will then shift east as an upper trough approaches from the west. At
the surface a warm front will lift through on Tuesday. Time
sections indicate low level Theta-E ridge along with sufficient
lift and moisture content to keep isolated convection in the
forecast. Otherwise dry and warm through the week as the offshore
ridge builds west into the Carolinas.
&&
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
short term /through Sunday night/...
as of 1230 am Sunday...high confidence in VFR conditions through
the taf period as high pressure with dry air prevails across
eastern NC. Some increase in middle and high level cloudiness is
expected late tonight into early Sunday afternoon. Winds will be
much lighter with speeds expected to remain 10 knots or less.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 230 am sun...isolated afternoon/evening convection possible
Tuesday. Otherwise dry/VFR. Light south southwest surface winds.
&&
Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 230 am Sunday...high pressure will build over the waters
through tonight. Light variable winds currently over the
waters may briefly surge this morning out of the northwest to 15
knots mainly over the northern...central...and sound waters peaking
around 12z. The flow then is expected to become light again as the
gradient relaxes this afternoon leading to the development of
local sea breeze circulations (onshore flow). Tonight winds are
forecast to be 10 knots or less. Seas 2 to 4 feet today will be 2 to 3
feet tonight.
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
as of 230 am sun...used a consensus blend of the latest run of the
European model (ecmwf) and GFS. Main weather feature will be the surface ridge
centered over the central west Atlantic through the period. Mainly
light south winds no higher than 15 knots...and seas running 2-4
feet.
&&
Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...jme
near term...jme
short term...jme
long term...hsa
aviation...jme/hsa
marine...jme/hsa
