Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
104 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013
Update...
18z aviation discussion included below. Small update mostly to
bump up high temperatures across the board today given recent observed
trends. Pop-wise...the best chances for afternoon tstrms are tending to
favor our eastern counties in light of a slowly-retreating area of
cumulus observed from Quanah south to Haskell. Recent hrrr runs
seem the most credible with initiation near our eastern-most
counties by early-middle afternoon with reduced chances farther west.
Recent Lubbock radar and wtm stations have shown a subtle outflow
boundary lifting northwest between Tahoka and Graham...although I
am not optimistic this feature will improve chances for precipitation on
The Caprock as water vapor shows a narrow zone of subsidence
spreading north. Remainder of the forecast remains in check.
&&
Aviation...
VFR conditions this afternoon could be threatened by a few +tsra
with the best chance of this occurring at cds...however low
coverage of storms implies keeping precipitation mention out for now.
Confidence is higher that low ceilings and/or some light fog will
develop early Sat morning at the terminals...so have inserted a
period of MVFR conditions as moist southeasterly winds remain intact.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Friona 84 60 84 60 93 / 20 20 20 20 20
Tulia 83 62 83 60 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
Plainview 84 63 83 61 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
Levelland 85 64 84 62 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
Lubbock 84 65 83 63 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
Denver City 85 64 84 61 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
Brownfield 85 65 84 62 92 / 20 20 20 20 10
Childress 83 66 85 66 93 / 30 20 20 20 10
spur 83 66 82 63 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
Aspermont 84 67 84 66 92 / 30 20 20 20 10
&&
Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
93/99/93
