Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky
246 am EDT sun may 19 2013
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 246 am EDT sun may 19 2013
The upper level low is currently parked across northeastern
Kentucky...with most shower activity staying across eastern Tennessee
and southwest Virginia. This feature will gradually shift east and
dampen with time as upper level ridging works in from the west. The
models have been overdoing the convective coverage lately...so will
downplay the given probability of precipitation through the next 36 hours.
Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to pop up this
afternoon with heating...before diminishing early this evening. Highs
will top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Any convection
will dwindle quickly tonight with better clearing likely and
consequently fog. Lows will bottom out in the lower 60s once again.
The upper level ridge will build in overhead on Monday...with highs
reaching well into the 80s. Will maintain the inherited slight
chance probability of precipitation for most locations at best given the capping that will be
in place.
Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 231 PM EDT Sat may 18 2013
The period begins with upper and surface low pressure over the
central/northern plains and upper ridging across the
central/southern Appalachians. With vertically stacked low over the
plains the pattern will undergo only a very slow transition. Our
region will be in a warm moist southwest flow through much of the
upcoming week...with a few shortwaves passing to our west as they
rotate around the main upper low. Will be unable to rule out
precipitation chances even in the early part of the week...and will
continue with a chance of convection daily. Will also continue to
forecast a rather suppressed diurnal temperature range with fairly
high dewpoints...daily convection chances and residual cloud cover
across the area. A cold front will only slowly approach eastern Kentucky
by the second half of the work week...bringing a chance for more
organized convection. The central region blended Load for ndfd
depicts this well...with the most likely scenario producing the best
rain chances from Wednesday into Thursday...but with high chance
probabilities lingering in the southeast into Friday. While there
are some differences in how the evolving upper air pattern and
surface front are handled by the models...a slow progression is
preferred...with the front not being south of the area until
Saturday. Drier and cooler weather will then be on tap for the
weekend.
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 156 am EDT sun may 19 2013
Fog will be the first concern...as skies attempt to partially clear
along and west of I-75. Sme has already gone down to 2 miles. The
latest infrared satellite trends reveal some clouds regenerating upstream.
As such...will keep sme in the IFR range before improving to MVFR
assuming the clouds make a return. Will maintain some MVFR
visibility restrictions at loz and keep VFR at jkl where winds will
be a touch stronger. Once the fog Burns off by middle-
morning...scattered convection will threaten during the
afternoon...before winding down in the early evening.
&&
Jkl watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...geogerian
long term...sbh
aviation...geogerian
