Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
900 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Update...thunderstorms have dissipated across the area for the most
part with only a few showers left in the southern portions of the
area. Expect the showers to completely dissipate over the next hour
or so and mostly clear skies will prevail through the night. The
current forecast is on track and no updates are needed at this
time./15/
Short term...
Wednesday evening through Saturday morning...upper trough axis is
gradually moving to the southeast this afternoon while the surface
frontal boundary will slowly move south over the next day.
Surface frontal analysis indicates drier air with dewpoints in the
middle-upper 60s along the Highway 82 corridor. Overnight tonight most
of the cloud cover will begin to clear as the 500 mb upper trough
gradually propagates southeast and subsidence in the wake of this
perturbation helps to clear out clouds tonight. Went slightly warmer
than mav for overnight period. Some patchy fog could be possible in
areas that receive rainfall tonight but not expecting any dense fog
in the area. Left probability of precipitation in the southeast as the frontal boundary slowly moves
south. The area will stay positioned between the upper ridge over the
Central Plains building east into the area and upper troughing over
the northeastern Continental U.S. Through Saturday. 500 mb northwest flow pattern
and perturbations will aid in shower and thunderstorm development on
Thursday. The boundary will continue to slowly move south but should
stay around the I-20 corridor for Thursday afternoon.
Overall...vertical totals around 25-27 could support some decent
thunderstorm activity. For now...left this out of the severe weather potential statement. This
activity should weaken after sunset. As the upper ridging gradually
builds east...temperatures will climb into the low 90s across the
region through the weekend. Upper shortwave northerly flow aloft and
increasing southerly flow in the low levels on Friday will aid in
increasing cloud cover/rain chances in the E/se. Went close to mav
probability of precipitation...keeping most activity in the east/southeast Friday afternoon
to evening near the frontal boundary. Mav lows looked good for
Thursday/Friday night but had to bump up lows slightly in the east
due to increasing clouds. Relevant portion of the previous long term
discussion is attached. /DC/
Long term...
Friday through next Wednesday...
An upper ridge will try building into the western half of the
forecast area Friday into the weekend as an upper trough pulls off to
the northeast and up the East Coast. As this happens...the trough
will leave behind a piece of energy that'll set the stage for some
isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and storms
over mainly east and southeast Mississippi through the weekend. Rain
chances look to wane heading into the new work week as the upper
ridge builds further east into the County Warning Area.
Otherwise...look for continued hot and humid conditions through the
forecast period. Guidance suggested highs and lows look reasonable
this morning. Highs each afternoon will range in the low to middle
90s...while lows each night generally range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. /19/
&&
Aviation..VFR conditions prevail at all taf sites this evening and
this will continue through much of the night. Patchy morning fog
could bring MVFR visibilities Thursday morning from 10-14z. Surface
winds will remain light over the next 24 hours. /15/
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Jackson 68 92 68 92 / 9 16 3 13
Meridian 66 93 67 91 / 12 17 6 22
Vicksburg 68 92 67 92 / 7 15 3 10
Hattiesburg 67 92 69 92 / 24 22 10 20
Natchez 69 91 68 92 / 9 18 4 11
Greenville 67 93 70 93 / 4 5 2 8
Greenwood 67 92 68 92 / 4 5 3 8
&&
Jan watches/warnings/advisories...
MS...none.
La...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&
$$
District of Columbia/19/bk
