Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
143 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Update...
the long term section has been updated below
&&
Synopsis...
issued at 410 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Slow moving low pressure system will continue to push through the
region through Thursday. Showers and scattered thunderstorms can
be expected today...with potential for showers continuing tonight
and into Thursday before the trough axis finally passes and
surface high pressure builds into the area Friday and into the
Holiday weekend.
&&
Near term /rest of today/...
Issued at 1030 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Rapid update models how little in the way of convective development
before noon...and thus lowered probability of precipitation for the next couple of hours.
Models still showing scattered development sometime after 18z...and
with upper wave on satellite moving this way and instability prognosticated
to increase ahead of the arrival of the cold front arriving in the
western counties around 18z...thought keeping likelies in the
southwest and west with chance in the northeast at 18z and likelies
everywhere shortly thereafter was the way to go. Severe potential as
discussed in previous near term has not changed...with a slight risk
for severe over the eastern half or so of the area late this
afternoon into the evening based on marginal instability and shear
and the cold front moving through. For temperatures thought going
values in the middle to upper 70s look good and did not change.
&&
Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
issued at 410 am EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Carried isolated thunder into the early evening hours before
ending thunder altogether across the area as instability drops
very low. Would not be completely shocked with an isolated rumble
of thunder across our east or southeast Thursday afternoon...but
felt this was low probability enough to exclude. Forecast
soundings show very shallow instability which rapidly wanes in the
late afternoon/early evening hours. High pressure will quickly
build in Thursday night into Friday...bringing a return to clear
skies and quiet weather.
On temperatures...continued to tweak consensus numbers upwards most
periods...as this agrees fairly well with low level thickness
changes next few days.
&&
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Good correspondence between models and MOS derived from them. In
particular...ensemble spread in the men product is quite low. No
reason to make major changes in central region initialization.
&&
Aviation /discussion for 221800z tafs/...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Biggest issue is thunderstorms. There are likely to be some over
the routes. Where they occur expect mfvr ceilings and
visibilities...and possibly gusty winds. However timing and
locations are so uncertain I cant even justify thunderstorms in the vicinity in tafs. I
will put in vcsh because showers should be more widespread.
Expect amendments as thunderstorm forecast becomes more definite.
Otherwise...expect ceilings of at least 35 hundred feet until
Thursday morning when they will become MVFR after a frontal
passage. Visibilities outside any precipitation p6sm.
Southwest winds around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots this afternoon
dropping to 10 knots or less after dark. Northwest winds 10-15
knots developing Thursday.
&&
Ind watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...nield
near term...cp
short term...nield
long term....jk
aviation...jk
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