Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis in
423 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Update...
The aviation section has been updated below
&&
Synopsis...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
High pressure will keep conditions dry through Friday. There will be
low chances for showers and thunderstorms at times from Saturday
through Wednesday as weak upper disturbances work with an unstable
atmosphere. Temperatures will be above normal through most of the
period.
&&
Near term /tonight/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Tonight will be dry with high pressure in control. Cumulus will dissipate
by early evening leaving behind some patchy cirrus. For
temperatures...went closer to the cooler of the MOS numbers across
the eastern forecast area where drier air resides. Went closer to
the warmer MOS west where dewpoints are higher.
&&
Short term /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Focus is on any chances for rain late in the period...otherwise on
temperatures. Models continue to be too high with dewpoints some
areas and thus break out isolated convection early in the period.
Ignored these features...otherwise went with a blend.
Upper heights will build through most of the short term.
Temperatures will warm as warmer air slowly works in aloft.
Temperature rise...and moisture increase...will be gradual as winds
initially are from the east and southeast.
Went dry Thursday through Friday night as The Heights build. For
temperatures...mav seems a bit warm given the expected temperatures
aloft and the easterly component to the wind early on. Trended
toward the cooler met most places.
Thunderstorms will develop well to our north Friday night. There is
relatively little winds aloft to steer these storms...and models
continue to hint that some of these may sink south into central
Indiana on Saturday. Confidence is low in how this plays out...so
just kept the 20 pop across the area on Saturday. With more moisture
around there will be more clouds...which will keep temperatures a
little cooler than MOS.
&&
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Focus is on chances for rain through the period. Models are close
enough that the allblend initialization can be used for most items.
Upper ridge will begin to break down some and allow upper shortwaves
to move around it. In addition...atmosphere will be hot and humid
through the period. Thus cannot rule out a few showers or storms
during the daylight hours Sunday through Tuesday. Will go with
allblend with 20 probability of precipitation during that time.
On Wednesday a little stronger upper wave may move through the
area...so went 30 pop most areas.
Temperatures will remain above average through the period.
&&
Aviation /discussion for 192100z ind taf update/...
Issued at 423 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Only minor tweak to winds...otherwise no changes.
Previous discussion follows...
VFR conditions to continue throughout the period.
High pressure slowly drifting eastward across the Great Lakes will
allow light easterly winds to continue with only some scattered cumulus
today. Any cumulus should dissipate shortly after sunset with mostly
clear skies overnight and light winds veering slightly more to the
southeast.
&&
Ind watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...50
near term...50
short term...50
long term....50
aviation...Lee/mk
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