Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas
311 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 308 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
A warm front will develop across the Southern Plains today into
tonight...before moving northward across our forecast area Friday.
Rich 850 mb moisture has been moving northward from the long Route
of the Rio Grande. Estimates are that the edge of this moisture
could reach our far southwestern counties this morning. A couple of
weak impulses...one presently over co/nm...will eject out of the
southwest across the Kansas region today with some isentropic
upglide occurring over our southwest counties. Any storms
developing in our southwestern counties could pose a hail
threat...given steep middle-level lapse rates...elevated cape of
1000-1500 j/kg...and west-nwrly deep layer shear vectors of 45 knots. A
higher probability of significant severe weather will exist from
the Texas/OK panhandles into western OK closer to the warm front.
Will maintain a chance of thunderstorms over central/south central
Kansas Friday as the warm front moves through with strong moisture
advection. For Saturday-Saturday night...the models hint at mesoscale convective system
activity across Nebraska and northeast Kansas near and north of the
warm front. Any storms forming along dryline will likely be more
isolated and should diminish Saturday night as they attempt to
move eastward with convective inhibition rapidly increasing. Gusty
southerly winds of 15-30 miles per hour expected Saturday with decent
pressure gradient and low level jet axis over the area.
Jmc
Long term...(sunday through wednesday)
issued at 308 am CDT Thursday may 23 2013
Lee trough/dryline will remain in place over the High Plains ahead
of the western Continental U.S. Upper trough. Gusty southerly winds can be
expected on a daily basis...with rich Gulf moisture/instability in
place east of the dryline. A few thunderstorms could form each
afternoon near the dryline...and with nightly southerly low-level
jets...will maintain some low probabilities (20-40%) of
thunderstorms in our area. The pattern could become more active in
terms of severe weather toward middle-late week although the models
differ on the ejection timing of a significant piece of energy out
of the western Continental U.S. Trough. Temperatures will be slightly above
seasonal norms.
Jmc
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1135 PM CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Minimal aviation concerns still look reasonable through this taf
period.
Not much has changed since the previous taf issuance. Still
expecting a few storms to develop after 09z southwest of the
forecast area. Some of this activity may clip our furthest southwest
counties...but do not believe they will make it up to kict. The low
clouds over eastern Nebraska/far northeast Kansas will work south
overnight and will approach central Kansas. 00z models remain consistent
in keeping these lower ceilings just north of krsl and ksln.
Lawson
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Wichita-kict 74 57 76 64 / 20 20 30 20
Hutchinson 73 57 76 65 / 20 30 40 30
Newton 72 56 74 64 / 20 20 30 20
Eldorado 73 55 75 63 / 20 20 30 20
Winfield-kwld 74 57 77 64 / 30 20 30 20
Russell 72 55 77 65 / 20 30 40 30
Great Bend 72 56 76 65 / 20 40 40 30
Salina 73 52 77 65 / 10 20 30 30
McPherson 73 56 75 65 / 20 20 30 30
Coffeyville 75 55 78 60 / 20 20 20 20
Chanute 74 52 76 60 / 10 20 20 20
Iola 74 51 76 59 / 10 20 20 20
Parsons-kppf 75 54 76 60 / 20 20 20 20
&&
Ict watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
