Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
303 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Discussion...
showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions of southeast
Texas this afternoon as a disturbance moves eastward across the state...
and expect this trend to continue for the rest of the afternoon and
into the early evening hours. Some gusty winds and heavy rainfall
are possible with the stronger storms...and some locally heavy rainfall
could happen too where any brief cell training sets up (some area
precipitable water values are around 2 inches). Expect another slight
chance/chance of rain tomorrow with much of the area still on the eastern
fringes of upper level ridging centered across the West Texas area.
However...the greater rain chances will be off to our northeast and
east where deeper moisture levels and the best lift will be found.
Toward the end of the week and on into the weekend...southeast Texas
should get into more of a slight chance of mainly morning showers near
the coast and a slight chance of mainly late morning through afternoon
showers and thunderstorms inland. Today's model runs support gradually
increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures next week
as upper level ridging moves off to the northern rockies area. 42
&&
Marine...
a rather typical Summer like pattern is shaping up for the coastal waters with
slightly stronger winds over the Gulf at night that relax a bit during the day
and lighter winds at night over the bays increasing a bit in the afternoon. Seas
will generally run between 2 and 3 feet. 43
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 1218 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013/
Discussion...
see 18z aviation discussion.
Aviation...
hi-res and short term models are in good agreement with rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
developing this afternoon so will tempo all inland sites with precipitation for
late this afternoon. Forecast soundings show precipitable water values increasing to 2.00
inches and k index values near 40. Convective temperatures are in the
upper 80s and this threshold has been breached so expect precipitation to
increase in coverage early this afternoon. Soundings also show an
inverted v signature so would not be surprised if winds become
gusty with some of the stronger storms. Leaned toward a rap/hrr
blend for the short term and the NAM/GFS long term. 43
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 75 95 75 96 75 / 30 20 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 75 94 75 95 75 / 40 30 10 20 10
Galveston (gls) 80 90 80 90 81 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Discussion...42
aviation/marine...43
