Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
628 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013
Aviation...
other than reduced visibility at times from smoke...generally VFR conditions
expected through this evening with just some thick high clouds moving
into the area from the southwest. Expect to see some MVFR ceilings develop
once again overnight tonight...and these ceilings should mix out 15-16z
tomorrow. Pressure gradient looks tighter tomorrow...so will continue
to carry gusts in the late morning through afternoon hours. 42
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM CDT Sat may 18 2013/
Discussion...
the middle and upper level ridge over southeast Texas early this afternoon will
move east of the forecast area tonight as a trough deepens over
The Rockies. A surface to 850 mb high pressure ridge will help
keep a cap in place over the next few days. The cap will likely
keep rain out of the forecast area through the day on Tuesday. It
will also help to keep the smoke and haze from the Mexican fires
overhead through at least Monday if not into Tuesday. Above normal
daytime high and nighttime low temperatures are expected through
Tuesday as well.
A fairly deep upper trough will then push across the state on
Tuesday and early Wednesday. A consensus of the models shows that
thunderstorms that develop along the dry line ahead of the trough
on Tuesday should affect at least the northern counties of the
forecast area Tuesday evening. Model forecast sounding profiles
then show the air mass increasing in moisture with precipitable water/S reaching
1.7 to 1.9 inches between 06z and 18z Wednesday...and
destabilizing with lapse rates and convective available potential energy increasing. Expect that
the best thunderstorm chances will occur north of Interstate 10
late Tuesday night and over the remainder of the area on
Wednesday. As explained on the early morning discussion...expect a
boundary to linger and rain chances to persist into Wednesday
evening. Drier air behind the system will help diminish the
overnight low temperatures slightly during the latter part of the
week.
Marine...
high pressure off the coast of Florida along with low pressure
over the plains will allow for moderate onshore flow through
early next week. The gradient will tighten a bit on Sunday and
slightly higher wind speeds are possible Sunday. 43
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
College Station (cll) 73 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (iah) 72 90 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (gls) 74 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
Hgx watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...small craft should exercise caution until 5 am CDT Sunday for
the following zones: Matagorda Bay...waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters
from High Island to Freeport 20 to 60 nm.
&&
$$
Discussion...38
aviation/marine...42
