Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1008 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will build east across the region through Thursday,
before setting up over the western Atlantic by the weekend. This will
lead to mainly fair conditions into early next week. A cold front
will drop into northern Maine on Friday, but will not make it
further south than that. Look for seasonably mild temperatures and
low humidity through Friday, followed by warming and increasing
humidity over the weekend and into early next week.
&&
Near term /until 8 PM this evening/...
1000 am...at 14z a 1024 millibar high was centered near Lake
Huron. GOES visible imagery showed a few cumulus developing with
daytime heating...otherwise a mostly sunny day as surface high
builds eastward. Only minor adjustments to 1st period grids based
largely on the mesonet.
Previous disc...
620 am...after fog/stratus Burns off this morning...expecting
a sunny day with north winds weakening during the afternoon...as high
pressure builds in across New England. Sea breeze will kick in along
the immediate coast...but probably too late to move much inland
today. Highs will be in 70s County Warning Area wide.
&&
Short term /8 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
high pressure will continue to build over New England tonight into Thursday.
This will make for a good rad cooling night...despite the fact
that we are experiencing the shortest nights of the year. Fog is
almost a given in the sheltered spots...but will have to watch for
some frost as well in the mountain valleys. Thinking is that it will
be limited...given the short night...and the tendency toward fog
prior to frosting...with dew points in the upper 30s.
Look for another mainly sunny day on Thursday...with temperatures a few
degrees warmer than today.
&&
Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
nwp in general agreement that trough lifts out of the
northeast...and heights begin to rise through the weekend. This means
a couple things for the County warning forecast area in the long term portion of the
forecast.
First...this will allow heat dome to build eastward through the
period. We/ll be on the fringe at first...with temperatures near to above
normal. With time ensemble guidance points towards anomalously
high heights and middle level temperatures for early next week. This would
translate to more Summer like feel to temperatures.
Second...this will place the County warning forecast area near the transition zone of air
masses. As ridge builds eastward with time and begins to flatten...shortwave
troughs within the flow...and convectively induced...will begin to
spill over the top. Any of these could bring a chance of rain showers or
thunderstorms...but the development and timing of these is poorly handled
by guidance. There is some indication that one or two may try and
brush the County warning forecast area late this week and over the weekend. These will
struggle to make a meaningful push through the area...as they battle
building heights. Possibly a more substantial shortwave will work
towards the area by the middle of next week. As such it will be
tough to rule out a chance of rain showers/thunderstorms most days near the
baroclinic zone...but overall the forecast is for drier conditions
than recent weeks.
In addition...with heat building into the area and west-northwest flow
aloft...we/ll have to keep an eye out for stronger convection
given that this is a favorable set up for such activity in northern New
England.
&&
Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
short term...fog and stratus have developed at
kleb/khie/kcon...and will persist through about 12z. Looks for
another round of fog at this same terminals tonight/ otherwise
expect VFR.
Long term...VFR conds to prevail...but scattered MVFR cannot be ruled
out in rain showers/thunderstorms over the weekend.
&&
Marine...
short term...waters will be quiet as seas/winds will remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday.
Long term...winds look to remain at or below Small Craft Advisory thresholds...but
prolonged S to SW flow may build seas above 5 feet for the weekend.
&&
Gyx watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
New Hampshire...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Es
