AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
704 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SKIES ARE
CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. WITH CALMING WINDS...THE
CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPTE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THEREFORE
SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS...ALONG WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG.
PREVIOUSLY...
AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON. GOES
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL AREAS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70F. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY BY EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE
BUILDING HIGH WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY COOL READINGS OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS.
MITIGATING FROST POTENTIAL AS WELL WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A COOL START SUNNY SKIES UNDER THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE.
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR
THE COLD FRONT OVER QUEBEC TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS...WITH ANY SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH DAWN.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY. AS WINDS
ALOFT BECOME PARALLEL TO FRONT IT WILL THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM AND AT TIMES UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE THREAT OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. WITH A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECT A FEW SHORT
WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...TIMING THESE SHORTWAVES THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE IS A CHALLENGE. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS SHORTWAVES
CROSSING THE REGION NEXT MONDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY. HAVE
UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY ON THOSE DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRI/...FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT
KLEB AND KHIE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
LONG TERM /12Z FRI THROUGH 23Z MONDAY/...VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVALENT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE HUMID AREAS OF NIGHT TIME
BR/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WATERS WILL BE QUIET AS
SEAS/WINDS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS UNDER BUILDING SURFACE HIGH.
LONG TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...WINDS TO STAY BELOW
SCA LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALTHOUGH THIS
COULD BECOME MORE OF A SWELL.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
ES/LULOFS
