AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA WARM AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAVORING THE WESTERN SITE OF THE
CWFA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AS DECENT WWD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW
BNDRYS ARE WORKING INTO 3500 J/KG CAPE AIR MASS. THE PULSE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREATS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS...BLENDING IN THE 18Z NAM AND
LATEST HRRR...WHICH AGREE ON CONVECTION WORKING OVER THE UPPER
SAVANNAH VALLEY AND SW NC MTNS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN TN WHERE THE
BETTER UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS. I/M EXPECTING MOST
OF THIS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS...DUE TO THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND FORCING OVER OUR AREA.
AT 230 PM EST TUESDAY...STILL SEEING AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
SITUATION ACROSS THE CWFA AS WEAK FORCING IS MAINTAINED WITHIN A
VERY BROAD H5 TROF. STILL EXPECT PULSE SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN UPSTATE ALIGNED WITH A LINE OF VORT ENERGY AND
ACROSS NC MTNS WHERE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUT SOME -SHRA
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NC MTNS IN UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE
MID MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BUT ENOUGH
CLEARING SHOULD BE HAD TO ENABLE MORNING FG...AND PATCHY/AREAS OF
DENSE FG THROUGH 13Z OR SO. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WED. THE WRN UPPER TROF IMPINGES UPON THE AREA AND
THE WRN ZONES WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON PRECIP/CONV
THAN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH END CHANCES ACROSS THE
MTNS. A GOOD HEATING DAY IN SW/LY FLOW WITH MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT
AND PULSE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS SETTING UP A MODEST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECTING COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
NEAR AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...AND THEN SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BOTH UPPER AND SFC LOWS. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE
80S NEAR AND ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR...AND SHEAR PROFILES IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT ALONG THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SVR STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
ON THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST...AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY MORNING. BY DAYBREAK...ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL ADVECT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO
BUILD OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...LEADING TO PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ON AVERAGE ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRIER COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DRIEST AIR VARIES PER MODEL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND WARM
FRONT CHANNELS SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE NC MTNS TO START THE NEW
WEEK...POPS WILL INCREASE AT LEAST INTO THE SLIGHT RANGE. BASED ON
THE BLEND OF THE MODELS...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR RAIN WILL BE
GOING INTO MID WEEK. SEEMS BEST ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY. CONSIDERED GOING TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT
TIME...BUT THAT IS A WEEK AWAY AND MUCH COULD CHANGE. CAPES ON THE
GFS FOR TUES PM ARE 1100 TO 1400 AND WINDS GOING UP FROM SURFACE NOT
TOO BAD FOR THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AND LOWS COOLER THAN NORMAL EARLY IN WEEKEND AND GOING ABOVE
INTO NEW WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC PULSE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TAF ZONE BY 21Z AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 01Z. DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER...SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...AND SHUD HELP CREATE MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. ALSO
ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBY AFT 07Z THROUGH 13Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS...BUT RESTRICTIVE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...THUS ALL TAF SITES WERE GIVEN A TEMPO
TSRA THROUGH MID EVENING. A MOIST ATMOS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
DEBRIS CLOUDS LOWERING AND ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS NON/MTNS AND IFR
CIGS/VSBY AT KAVL DEVELOPING A FEW HRS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK... CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTN/EVE. GENERALLY VFR WEATHER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 59% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% MED 66% MED 69% HIGH 93%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 78% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 76% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 78% HIGH 97%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK
