Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1139 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013
Update...
overall...forecast looks to be on track...with slight chance probability of precipitation
across far eastern Georgia and partly cloudy conditions across a
large portion of the area. Hourly forecast trends look good for
temperatures and dewpoints...and have made very minor adjustments
through the day. High temperatures still looks to be on track.
Slight chance probability of precipitation continue across northeast and far northern
Georgia through the afternoon and evening as moisture returns to
the area as low pressure trough sweeps through the Ohio Valley.
No additional updates are planned at this time.
31
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 740 am EDT Thursday may 23 2013/
Short term /today through Friday/...
upper level trough moving through eastern sections of Georgia into the
Carolinas this morning. Showers and thunderstorms have been
diminishing over eastern Georgia and should continue to do so. Some
lingering dynamics may support some convection mainly along the
eastern side of the County Warning Area this morning and have continued with low
probability of precipitation for that area. Drier air will spread into the County Warning Area today behind
the short wave. However...north Georgia will be on the southern fringes
of an upper trough deepening into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
this afternoon and evening. So...have left low probability of precipitation across the
extreme northern counties this afternoon until around 06z. Otherwise
strong northwesterly flow bringing lower dew points and more stable
air for the remainder of the short term. Northwest winds becoming
gusty today but should stay below advisory criteria. Somewhat cooler
temperatures in store tonight and Friday. Mav/met numbers were close
and only minor tweaks were made.
41
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
dry weather is expected to continue across the area through Sunday
and for the most part based on the GFS...through Thursday.
However the European model is indicating a wetter northwest flow aloft
across north and parts of central Georgia starting Sunday night with a
weaker upper ridge and greater potential for short waves to affect
the area. Current forecast has low probability of precipitation across north Georgia on Monday and
Tuesday and will just continue that forecast for now as a
compromise. No instability to speak off until Tuesday afternoon
where there might be enough for thunderstorms over far north Georgia. Upper
ridge over the area for Wednesday into Thursday. Keeping probability of precipitation none
for Wednesday except for low probability of precipitation over the NE mountains where
southerly flow and some instability could cause afternoon showers
and storms.
Temperatures generally running within 6 degrees of normal through
the period except Saturday morning lows are running about 10-15
degrees below normal and Sunday morning lows running about 6-12
degrees below normal.
Bdl
Aviation...
12z update...
expect VFR today...after some MVFR and IFR fog has burned off by
14z. Only isolated convection mainly north and east of taf sites
today. Winds will become northwest 10-15kt after with gusts of
20-25kt expected through the afternoon.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
high confidence on all elements.
41
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 86 58 80 46 / 20 5 0 0
Atlanta 84 59 76 50 / 10 0 0 0
Blairsville 79 53 73 40 / 20 20 0 0
Cartersville 85 56 77 44 / 10 5 0 0
Columbus 87 63 84 55 / 10 0 0 0
Gainesville 83 58 79 48 / 20 10 0 0
Macon 88 59 83 48 / 10 0 0 0
Rome 85 56 78 46 / 10 10 0 0
Peachtree City 84 56 78 46 / 10 0 0 0
Vidalia 88 65 87 56 / 20 0 0 0
&&
Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...31
long term....01
aviation...31
