Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
630 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Discussion...see aviation discussion below for the 12z taf's.
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Aviation...the crp taf site currently has IFR ceilings but most
locations are at MVFR levels. VFR conditions are expected by middle
morning as the stratus deck mixes out/lifts. Gusty winds are
expected again today however speeds should be a few knots lower
than yesterday. Winds will weaken further tonight as a frontal
boundary moves into central Texas. Tsra's chances will increase late
afternoon/evening for areas from lrd to cot then shifting east
overnight into early Wednesday morning. Have included a prob30 group for
tsra's for lrd and vct due to better dynamics across the west and northern
portions of S Texas. Am expecting convection to weaken as it moves
farther southeast. MVFR ceilings/visibilities are expected late tonight across much
of S Texas.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 424 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/
Short term (today through wednesday)...another very warm day on tap
along with generally breezy conditions/windy across the southern coastal
Bend....although winds will be a couple of knots less than previous
couple of days. Onshore flow will continue to weaken tonight/Wednesday as
an upper trough swings across Texas and pushes a frontal boundary across north
and central Texas...thus relaxing the gradient across S Texas. Models forecast
an inverted trough to develop across mex and along the Rio Grande this
afternoon into tonight ahead of the frontal boundary. This will provide
low level moisture convergence across the West County warning area by late
afternoon/evening. Models forecast moisture to deepen across S Texas with
precipitable waters increasing to around 1.7 inches across the northwest County Warning Area by this
afternoon. This pool of moisture then shifts east overnight. Models also forecast
the environment to be unstable...however a strong cap will also be
in place today but weakening somewhat tonight as low/middle level
temperatures cool. Kept silent 10 probability of precipitation for today given the strong cap. As
the upper trough nears the West County warning area by late afternoon and evening
precipitation chances increase but kept a slight chance across the southern County Warning Area and
low end chance across the northern County Warning Area tonight. Am expecting the better
chances to remain north of the County Warning Area where the better dynamics will be
located. Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe weather just north of the County Warning Area with
general tsra's across the County Warning Area. Am expecting that convection to the
north and northwest of the area will weaken as it moves farther S and southeast
across the County Warning Area tonight and into Wednesday morning. Could see elevated
storms make it farther S due to steepening lapse rates. Kept a
slight chance for the NE County Warning Area on Wednesday due to the upper system exiting
to the NE and merging with the main upper low across the plains.
Due to increased cloud cover...went a couple of degrees cooler
today and again Wednesday.
Marine...onshore flow will be moderate today but weakening
throughout the afternoon and into tonight in response to a frontal
boundary moving into central Texas and relaxing the pressure gradient across S
Texas. A weak to moderate onshore flow will then persist on Wednesday.
Long term (wednesday night through monday)...mostly quiet weather
is anticipated across south Texas through the extended part of the
forecast. Upper level ridge will nose northward into the area
Wednesday night...and be the main weather feature across south Texas
through the weekend. This will bring warm and mostly dry conditions
to the region. Afternoon highs will generally be above normal with
middle/upper 90s out west to near 90 across the Victoria Crossroads.
Moisture does begin to creep back across the Rio Grande by the end
of the week. Mountain convection over Mexico may be a possibility...
but low confidence exists as to whether storms would make it into
the western zones due to strong capping inversion. Do not feel it is
Worth a mentionable pop at this time so will continue with a dry
forecast. No significant changes made to the long term.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 90 77 92 74 92 / 10 20 10 10 10
Victoria 89 76 89 73 90 / 10 30 20 10 10
Laredo 100 76 98 76 99 / 10 20 10 10 10
Alice 93 76 94 73 94 / 10 20 10 10 10
Rockport 84 76 82 75 86 / 10 20 10 10 10
Cotulla 99 74 96 73 97 / 10 30 10 10 10
Kingsville 90 77 93 74 93 / 10 20 10 10 10
Navy corpus 84 76 84 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.
&&
$$
Te/81...aviation
