Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1010 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...
a large area of high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes
will move little through the weekend...then slide to the East Coast
Monday and Tuesday. A warm front will develop over the Mississippi
Valley by Monday and lift north across the area on Tuesday.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
cold overnight. A few temperatures were already being reported in the
upper 30s just after dark and dropping. Any remaining
stratocumulus will soon dissipate. The only thing that will get in
the way of freeze or frost is the northwest wind and increasing
high clouds. The northwest wind will stay up near Lake Erie and on
some exposed hills. The high clouds will spread across the area
during the early morning hours before sunrise...especially across
Northwest Ohio. Urban areas will also escape the worst of the
cold.
In the meantime...areas of north central and northeast inland Ohio
and inland northwest Pennsylvania...especially rural and low lying
areas... will get to freezing or below. Some locations may be at or
below freezing for several hours. A few degrees warmer across
Northwest Ohio where temperatures got to near 60 Friday afternoon but frost
will occur in rural and low lying areas with lows mostly in the middle
30s. Warmer in town. Record lows are pretty cold for the 25th...in
the upper 20s or lower 30s...but we will be close at some
locations.
&&
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday night/...
dry high pressure will dominate through the Holiday weekend. The
area will remain cool with only very slowly moderating temperatures.
Will likely Need More frost headlines Saturday night in the east.
Expect temperatures to struggle to get above 60 on Saturday and out of
the lower and middle 60s on Sunday. Temperature may get to 70 on
Monday but that will still below normal. Models have been showing
a system moving out of the plains Monday. A warm front from this
system will begin to impact the area Monday night and have put
some warm air advection precipitation in the west Monday night. Think dry
weather will prevail in the east till after the short term period.
Given a look at upstream satellite today skies should be almost
completely clear on Saturday with just some high clouds the
remainder of the weekend. Have trended to cool side of guidance
through the period.
&&
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday and
Tuesday night as a warm front lifts through. In the warm air mass
Wednesday through Friday there could be some pop up showers and
thunderstorms...continuing the 20 probability of precipitation. Otherwise a warming trend
with highs above normal. Used a blend of guidance...especially HPC.
&&
Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure building east at this time with clear skies west
half and clearing skies expected in the east half. Clouds are
diurnal in nature and should dissipate after sunset. Winds may
take a little while to diminish to light and variable overnight.
Expecting an increase in winds to 10 knots from Cleveland to
Mansfield west and to 15 knots possible east of that line
during the day. Mainly cirrus expected to move east over the area
late tonight into tomorrow. Otherwise...VFR.
Outlook...non VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday
night through Tuesday.
&&
Marine...
dropping the Small Craft Advisory on the extreme west end of the
lake as the high is building in. The Small Craft Advisory on the
east half of the lake will be extended into Saturday morning. Some
concern that the waves could be near Small Craft Advisory
criteria Saturday afternoon in the northwest flow...so this will
have to be monitored.
Once the high pressure area moves east early next week...not expecting
conditions to meet Small Craft Advisory conditions on the lake in
a mainly southwest flow.
&&
Cle watches/warnings/advisories...
Ohio...frost advisory until 9 am EDT Saturday for ohz003-006>012-
017>019-027-028-036-089.
Freeze warning until 9 am EDT Saturday for ohz013-014-020>023-
029>033-037-038-047.
PA...frost advisory until 9 am EDT Saturday for paz001.
Freeze warning until 9 am EDT Saturday for paz002-003.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Saturday for lez146>149.
&&
$$
Synopsis...kosarik
near term...kosarik
short term...kubina
long term...kieltyka
aviation...Lombardy
marine...kieltyka/Lombardy
