Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
401 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Synopsis...
a warm and humid airmass will remain in place through tonight with
showers and thunderstorms forming. It will turn cooler
tomorrow...and showers will become more widespread as a cold front
passes through. A few of these showers may linger into early
Friday...before drier air settles into the region for the weekend.
&&
Near term /through Thursday/...
this afternoon several clusters of showers and thunderstorms have
blossomed just to our east...but over our region mainly clear skies
prevail. This has allowed for temperatures to rise a few degrees
warmer...and also increased the amount of instability.
Visible satellite imagery shows a lake breeze off Lake Erie and with
this southwest flow areas along the immediate Lake Shore and the
Buffalo metropolitan area will likely remain dry through the afternoon
hours.
Inland some cumulus has blossomed this afternoon across wny and the north
country. With the additional daytime instability we are still
expecting showers and thunderstorms to Blossom this afternoon and evening.
The greatest instability with lifted indice's of -7c and SBCAPE of 2500+ j/kg
is over interior wny. The cumulus over wny is forming within this area of
greatest instability will likely form showers and thunderstorms over
The Finger lakes region and later the Eastern Lake Ontario
region...where dewpoints are in the middle to upper 60s. Will highlight
the highest probability of precipitation this late afternoon and this evening within this
region. However thunderstorms are possible...especially on lake
breeze and thunderstorm boundaries across the County Warning Area through the evening hours
when additional convergent lift ahead of a 45 knot low level jet and moisture
advection fuels showers and thunderstorms. With this...some storms
could become severe with the unidirectional flow with damaging winds
and hail the primary threat. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212 will go
through 11 PM tonight.
For tonight as the low level moisture and lift ahead of the low level jet
carries northward expect showers and thunderstorms to diminish
through the early overnight...especially south of Lake Ontario. Lows tonight
will remain in the 60s.
For tomorrow an area of low pressure will lift north of Lake Ontario
and drag a cold front across the western half of New York state.
While instability will be less tomorrow additional lift along the
cold front boundary should produce more widespread showers. Will
mention thunder across The Finger lakes region where the greatest
instability within the County Warning Area will be found...with sbcapes around 500
j/kg. Showers will likely continue after the cold front passage with
the upper level cool pool still to the west.
Cooler tomorrow with highs reaching the lower 70s.
&&
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday night/...
northern stream trough will be digging southeast through Ontario and
the northern Great Lakes at the start of the period. Secondary cold
front will be just off to our west Thursday evening...then pass
across the area Thursday night. Widespread shower activity Thursday
night and early Friday ahead of the front will taper off behind the
frontal passage...with drier and much cooler air advecting into the
region...as a broad and strong Canadian surface high builds
southward through the Great Lakes and toward the East Coast. This
will put an end to the precipitation threat for the beginning of the
Holiday weekend.
Mainly clear and cool conditions for Friday night and Saturday.
Overnight lows Friday night falling into the middle 30s and lower 40s
and highs Saturday in the lower to middle 60s. The gradient may stay
up enough Friday night to keep the potential for frost to a minimum
but a few locations may nudge toward the freezing mark.
&&
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
cool Canadian high pressure will reside over the area through the
period. This will result in a quiet weather pattern with no
precipitation expected. The dry airmass in place will likely result
in a wide diurnal range in temperatures. The coolest period looks to
be Sunday and Monday with overnight lows falling into the middle 30s
and lower 40s and highs in the lower to middle 60s. These
temperatures would suggest some frost potential especially for the
normally colder locations of the southern tier and areas east of
Lake Ontario. It is likely that headlines will be needed at some
point during this period.
A gradual warming trend will then occur through middle week as the high
shift slightly to the east allowing for a more southerly flow with
highs reaching normal or slightly above normal by middle week with
readings in the 70s.
&&
Aviation /20z Wednesday through Monday/...
at 18z VFR flight conditions were found across the region with a few
showers and thunderstorms starting to Blossom across the lower
Genesee Valley. Will carry thunderstorms across the Eastern Lake
Ontario region...including the kart taf for this late evening and
early overnight...with other locations just carry a vicinity
thunderstorm. Some brief MVFR visibilities are possible within any storm.
For tonight showers and thunderstorms will carry northward...with a
low level jet of 35 to 40 knots across the region. Will carry low level wind shear overnight
in the tafs.
Tomorrow morning hours will likely be dry and overcast with showers
becoming more likely later in morning and early afternoon as a cold
front nears the region. At this time thunder looks to be limited
along the cold front.
Outlook...
Thursday afternoon...scattered to numerous showers and possibly a
thunderstorm with associated MVFR/IFR...otherwise VFR.
Thursday night IFR/MVFR in showers.
Friday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday through Monday...VFR.
&&
Marine...
showers and thunderstorms this evening will diminish with the loss
of daytime heating. An area of low pressure will cross just to the
north of Lake Ontario tomorrow and drag a cold front across the
lakes on Thursday. Colder air behind this frontal boundary will
bring a slight increase in waves heights on both lakes...though
waves will likely remain below 4 foot through Thursday night. Small
crafts may be needed early Friday when wave heights peak...possibly
at the 4 foot mark.
&&
Buf watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Thomas
near term...Thomas
short term...tma
long term...tma
aviation...Thomas
marine...Thomas
