Discussione scientifica sulle previsioni

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
1000 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013 


Update... 
evening weather. 


&& 


Discussion... 


Looking at the evening sounding...it is about the driest that you 
will ever see in late may. The precipitable water which would typically be 1.5 to 2 
inches is way down to 0.22 inches. The dewpoints are low as 
well...with Auburn checking in last hour at a low 37. This dry air 
will force the temperatures down into the 40s for overnight lows. 
Amazingly this is in the ballpark but not at record levels which 
would take US into the lower 40s and upper 30s territory set in 
1979. However...it looks to be close to top 3 lowest since record 
keeping began here in 1800s. Forecast lows could end up having a 
major issue as I am seeing more upper level cirrus streaming in from 
the large storm complex in central Texas. It could be just enough 
to blanket our area with enough cover to push the low temperatures up 
several degrees. Otherwise...earlier forecast looks reasonable. 


17/klaws 


&& 


Aviation... 
00z taf discussion. 


VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours with a dry airmass 
in place. Winds will subside over the next hour or so and remain 
below 7 kts for the remainder of the taf cycle. 


05/Massachusetts 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$