Northern Alaska forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks Alaska
130 PM akdt Sat may 25 2013
Discussion...
models in good agreement through early on large scale features
through next week with upper level high pressure ridge building
west out of Canada over Mainland Alaska. Warm temperatures will
continue over the eastern and central interior through the weekend
and will continue to expand westward into early next week. There
are minor differences with strength and timing on a weak short wave
moving north out of the northern Pacific and moving into the
central and eastern interior Sunday and another weak short wave
moving northwest into the western interior Monday. Convective
parameters look better for producing isolated showers or
thunderstorms in the central and eastern interior with lifted
index around minus 2 however best cape with values around 500
near the Canadian border. NAM seems to be the odd model with upper
level energy moving into western interior Monday afternoon with
lifted index around -2 and cape values topping out near 400 near
Galena.
Forecast focus continues to be on hydrological issues on several fronts.
The warm air mass building into the eastern and central interior is
causing rapid melt off of a still sizable snow pack above 2500 feet
into small streams and rivers across the interior. Elevated water levels
are noted on the Chatanika...upper chena...the little chena and
the Salcha rivers. Flood Warning issued this morning on reports of
large and quick water rises as well as reports of large chunks of
ice moving down the Salcha river. Will continue to monitor situation
closely with increased activity on and near area rivers over
Memorial Day weekend.
The ice breakup front on the river Yukon has moved approximately 50
miles down river from Tanana where the Flood Watch has been
cancelled. The ice jam just down river from the McGrath Airport
released this morning with water levels falling at McGrath. Flood
Watch was cancelled for McGrath as well.
&&
Fire weather...
relative humidity values will be low over portions of the eastern interior with
red flag warnings hoisted for zone 220 223 and 224.
&&
Hydrology...
warm temperatures will continue across the interior with freezing
levels above 7 kft. Rapid melt off of snow pack above 2500 feet will
continue to keep water levels high on interior rivers.
&&
Afg watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning for akz220-akz223-akz224.
Flood Warning for ak222-ak223-ak224.
&&
$$
Ccc may 13
