Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
551 PM MDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Aviation...
00z taf cycle
convection has so far been below earlier expectations. Isolated-scattered
thunderstorms and rain will continue across far NE nm...but confidence is moderate
to low on whether the current convection across NE nm and southeast Colorado
will organize into a mesoscale convective system and move southeast...as some models
suggest. If it does...tcc would stand to have the greatest
impacts...though scaled back mention of ts and rain in latest taf
issuance. With this in mind...strength of The Gap winds through
the central mountains also remains in question. Kept forecast above
guidance...but this may need to be tweaked down...especially in
abq taf. Also cant rule out low ceilings developing overnight across
the far eastern plains...mainly along and east of a line from rtn
to CVS...due to higher moisture in place.
34
&&
Previous discussion...307 PM MDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013...
..Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325 in effect until 9 PM MDT...
Storm coverage is much more limited today as potent dry air aloft
moves over the region on increasing southwesterly flow. Low level
moisture did make it all the way to The Divide but it is shallow
and will continue mixing out this afternoon. This gradient across
the area along with afternoon heating and topographic forcing will
set the stage for severe storms over the NE plains. Latest radar
trends show a potential severe storm west of Raton...and this is
expected to continue through the evening as the atmosphere becomes
more unstable. Raised probability of precipitation for the NE and east Central Plains and
lowered a little farther west.
Wednesday will be an ugly fire danger day across the region with
deep mixing tapping very dry air leading to hot...breezy/windy...
and unstable conditions. 700mb temperatures will be near +18c which is
not as warm as what we experienced last week however it is still
well above normal. Tossed in some synoptically driven blowing dust
into the grids for a few central and western locales. Any storms
will be focused across the plains and even there expect mostly dry
and gusty activity. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday except
more moisture will trickle north across the southeast half of the area.
Raised probability of precipitation just a tad farther north as the 12z NAM is bullish on
developing activity up to the I-40 corridor. Temperatures will remain
hot and winds aloft will stay strong so breezy conditions can be
expected. Any showers/storms that get going will have potential
to produce strong outflow winds.
Quite a large amount of uncertainty remains with medium/extended
range guidance for Friday through early next week. The GFS ensemble
precipitable water shows a large swath of 1-2 stdev below climatology values from the
northern Baja California region across the Great Basin...with near climatology
values for nm. The European model (ecmwf) is significantly drier through this period
with the upper ridge axis stretching from west-southwest to east-northeast across
northern Mexico. This shuts off any stream of moisture sliding
into our area through all of next week with a 598dm ridge building
right over northern nm and southern Colorado. This would lead to well
above normal scorching temperatures once again. The GFS however does
take a piece of the current tropical disturbance over southern
Mexico and lifts it north with the ridge farther east. For now
will side with the drier solution and keep probability of precipitation very low in the
extended.
Guyer
Fire weather...
..critical fire weather period next few days...
Model guidance has suggested a little stronger flow for portions of
the forecast area Wednesday so raised speeds slightly but pretty
similar to original levels. The higher ridges and areas near the Arizona/Colorado
state lines as well as to the Lee of the central mountains will be
favored for the strongest winds. Latest model guidance also suggest
the strongest winds aloft Wednesday night into Thursday so bumped up
wind speeds accordingly. Getting more critical fire weather
conditions for Thursday. Only fly in the ointment is the 12z NAM/S
depiction of middle level moisture flowing up from Mexico Thursday
afternoon. Other models not as aggressive. Could be a wild and
woolly day with a mix of Standard red flag conditions plus dry
microburst winds due to drier storms. Will monitor that trend
accordingly. Will upgrade watch to a warning for the entire forecast
area excluding areas near to the Texas state line due to higher relative humidity
there Wednesday. Will issue a watch for the western two thirds of
the forecast area on Thursday. Going to be on the safe side for both
days.
As far as rest of today...looking at some drier storms across the
north central mountains as the dry air rapidly pushes from west to
east. These storms will tend to be fast moving. The wetter storms
will be found across the eastern plains...especially favoring the
northeast.
Upper flow will increase over northern and central New Mexico
tonight as the upper ridge slides slightly to the east. Temperatures
will be above normal. The middle level dry intrusion will filter
further over the forecast area although abundant low level moisture
will try to push back to the west similar to last night but not as
aggressive. Humidity recoveries will be very poor near to the Arizona
state line...poor between the Continental Divide to Rio Grande
Valley and then moderate to good further east. Even excellent near
the Texas state line.
Wednesday will be a higher end critical day due to the time of year
and combo wind/low relative humidity/abundant turbulent mixing and quite a bit
of sunshine. Sun angles are getting to be quite steep and the middle
level dry intrusion is expected to be quite strong as it pushes
further eastward over the state. Super Haines values are projected
for western and northern New Mexico. The surface wind flow will be
herky jerky or pulsy due to the turbulent mixing and above normal
temperatures. Mixing heights are projected to be above normal with
some pretty Stout southwest transport winds. Several hours of
single digits are expected along and just to the Lee of the
central mountains westward to Arizona. The Heart of the single digit
area in terms of 10 to 15 hours includes the northwest half of the
forecast area. Storm potential...mainly of the drier variety will
be found across the eastern plains and cant rule out a rogue dry
storm along the east slopes of the sangres before the dry air
really pushes in.
The ridge will nudge a little further to the east Wednesday night as
the middle level dry intrusion proceeds over the entire area.
Temperatures will remain warmer than normal with poor to very poor
recoveries western two thirds or so. Much better recoveries with
residual higher low level moisture will be found near the Texas
state line. The higher ridges should continue to see steady wind
flows as the upper flow strengthens some. This will lead into
another potentially critical day on Thursday. The upper flow will
remain pretty strong and favor the same areas as mentioned during
the opening paragraph. Temperatures will remain above normal
although humidity values could rise some as compared to Wednesday/S
readings. NAM model a little jumpy with its depiction of a middle level
moisture push from Mexico. The 12z model was more moist while the
18z is coming in drier. If storms do form they would be drier and
faster moving leading to an additional ignition threat. Either
way...getting enough critical wind speeds combined with low humidity
and above normal mixing to warrant a Fire Weather Watch. Seeing a
super Haines signature across the northwest third or so but less
area than is expected Wednesday.
Extended models such as the GFS and European model (ecmwf) point towards an upper
southwest flow continuing Friday and into the weekend. Decided to up
wind speeds slightly for Friday and seeing some localized critical
conditions but doesnt appear to be as strong of a signal as the
previous days. Upper flow is depicted to weaken some as the Pacific
trough shears out. Expecting some sort of middle level moisture seepage
from Mexico during this period with more of a moisture return from
the Gulf across the southeast and east Central Plains. The wetter
storms could be possible there while the drier variety elsewhere.
Temperatures would be a few degrees above normal during this period
with much lower humidity values west. Confidence in this period is
moderate although lots of uncertainty on the moisture push.
50
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for the following
zones...nmz101>109.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones...nmz101>103-105>107-109.
&&
$$
