Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
525 am MDT Monday may 20 2013
Aviation...
12z taf cycle
upper level disturbance aloft extending from Colorado to southern
Nevada will sweep south and east across New Mexico over the next
24 hours. Surface low deepening over Texas Panhandle combined with weak
cold front penetrating northeast nm will produce usual afternoon
rounds of gusty winds...with g25 kts showing up from roughly 17z
Onward today through sunset at 02z. Afternoon virga development
will produce shifting and gusty winds through 04z this evening.
Mostly VFR ceilings and viz with occasional drops to MVFR ceilings and
viz in virga curtains and in blowing dust with conditions
improving from 04z Onward this evening.
Shy
&&
Previous discussion...342 am MDT Monday may 20 2013...
what is left of weak frontal boundary in NE nm is not likely to
move too much during the day as next short wave moves into north nm.
The front and short wave combo...as well as associated cold pool
aloft yielding fairly unstable atmosphere...will all help to
generate a crop of isolated to scattered showers and storms...especially
with help of daytime heating. Most of these should actually
produce enough precipitation to reach the ground...but atmospheric moisture
still fairly low and amts should generally be no more than 1 or 2
tenths and most cases less. Did extend low near 10 percent positive
farther south than was earlier the case to allow for the cold pool
and heating caused instability convection. Do think there may be
isolated storms a little farther S today than indicated by earlier
pop and weather grids. Overall inherited grids well supported by latest
model runs so really not many changes of real significance. Higher
dew points should get ushered in by the back door front...but it
looks to largely mix out on Tuesday. Thus...minimal precipitation
chances continue for north central and NE areas today and Tuesday.
Shortwave ridging still eases in Wednesday and temperatures will warm further
as a result. Shower and storm chances will be the least on Wednesday.
Models still having some problems resolving just how West Coast
upper low and trough evolve late in the week and weekend. Tis
likely that dry line will eventually set up over east nm. So expect
diurnal west to east sloshing of the dry line across the eastern
plains...but still some uncertainty as to how far west moisture
will make it. Thus there will be some T storm potential...perhaps
even strong/severe...across the plains...but just how much of the
plains that could be impacted remains up for debate. 00z Euro is
still not too bullish on the moisture return and keeps stronger
west to SW winds aloft.
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Fire weather...
critical fire weather outlook...red flag conditions will develop
this afternoon and continue into early evening over the Rio Grande
Valley...the Sandia/Manzano Mountains...and the eastern plains.
Localized very high Haines indices will develop each afternoon
Wednesday through Saturday over the Continental Divide.
Models...in reasonably good agreement through the weekend and into
the first half of next work week. Closed low over the Dakotas with
broad ridge over the eastern Pacific will circulate gusty westerly
flow across New Mexico today. Shortwave over the intermountain
region will sweep across New Mexico tonight...as parent closed low
moves into the upper Midwest. Trailing ridge from southern Arizona
to central Montana will move across New Mexico by Wednesday morning
as closed low deepens and expands in coverage over the Pacific
northwest. Ridge will move east of New Mexico by Thursday
morning...allowing winds aloft to back to southwest in expanding
circulation about Pacific northwest closed low. This pattern will
hold steady for the remainder of the work week and through the
weekend. Closed low will open into high amplitude trough and move
this feature onto the California coast by Monday afternoon...and
into western New Mexico by early Wednesday morning.
For today...cooler air in place over New Mexico with cooling trends
leveling off...and most spots running 5 to 10 degrees below late may
normals. Thunder a possibility mainly from Interstate 40 northward.
Little chance of wetting rains in mostly dry thunderstorms producing
gusty and shifting winds. Breezy northwest winds will be strongest
over summits and eastern slopes of the Continental Divide...and over
the Central Mountain chain. Humidities in the low teens and single
digits percent will set up red flag conditions this afternoon into the
evening from the Rio Grande Valley across the Central Mountain chain
and out over the eastern plains along and south of the Interstate 40
corridor. Generally poor humidity recoveries overnight...except fair
to good over the north and extreme east.
For Tuesday...ridge building north and east from southern Arizona to
central Montana will keep northwest flow circulating into New
Mexico. Modest warming trend will push daytime maximum temperatures
back toward late may normals. Spotty dry thunderstorm coverage
limited to the summits and slopes of the northern mountains through
Tuesday afternoon. Weak surface pressure gradient will ease wind
speeds back...as minimum humidities remain in the single digits and
low teens for all but the northeast...where minimum humidities will
run in the upper teens and low 20s percent. No ventilation issues...with
poor humidity recoveries west and south...and fair to good
recoveries north and east...best near the Colorado and Texas lines.
For Wednesday...ridge axis squarely over New Mexico as surface low
deepens over southeastern New Mexico. Warming continues under the
ridge with maximum temperatures 3 to 8 degrees above late may
normals. Ridge will squash the convection with most of the state
under some form of light southwest flow...with some local gusts
Wednesday afternoon over the chuskas near the Arizona line. Minimum
humidities remaining very dry...single digits and low teens percent will
be widespread. By late Wednesday afternoon...very high Haines
indices will be reached over the Continental Divide in spots into
early Wednesday evening. No ventilation issues with improved
humidity recoveries overnight as low level flow helps work some
evening moisture into the state. Low clouds and fog are possible
over the eastern tier as a moist Gulf air mass sneaks across the
Texas border. For the remainder of the state...continued poor to
fair humidity recoveries overnight.
Outlook...Thursday through Saturday...warming Thursday leveling off
Friday and Saturday as dry line convection kicks up each afternoon
near the Texas Panhandle. Minimum humidities will be eased somewhat
over th east and northeast...but remain very dry over the central
and west. Southwest winds will become somewhat breezy each afternoon
statewide. Very high Haines indices will be developing late each
afternoon into the evening over the Continental Divide. Poor to fair
humidity recoveries over much of the state...much better recoveries
over the east under moist Gulf air mass.
Shy
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones...nmz106>108.
&&
$$
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